On the morning of Tuesday, Jan. 27, the Los Angeles Lakers are in a very strong overall position. Despite some well-chronicled roster challenges and the current injury absence of Austin Reaves, the Lakers sit with a 28-17 record that is enough to put the team in the No. 5 slot in the highly competitive Western Conference.
On the surface, that is not a shocking outcome for a team with Luka Dončić and LeBron James, and it is a position that was at least in the possible range of outcomes for the Lakers before the 2025-26 season began. However, a closer look paints an interesting, and potentially challenging, picture for the Lakers based on how they have compiled their win-loss record through 45 games.
Before diving into the Lakers case specifically, here is a list (via NBA.com) of the "clutch" record and winning percentage for each NBA team through the games on Jan. 26.
Note: "Clutch" games are counted when the score is within five points during the final five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime.
Rank | Team | Clutch Record |
|---|---|---|
1 | Lakers | 14-2 (.875) |
2 | Raptors | 17-7 (.708) |
3 | Pistons | 19-8 (.704) |
4 | Magic | 15-8 (.652) |
5 | Spurs | 16-9 (.640) |
6 | Thunder | 12-7 (.632) |
7 | Bulls | 16-11 (.593) |
8 | Heat | 11-8 (.579) |
9 | Nuggets | 12-9 (.571) |
10 | Jazz | 11-9 (.550) |
11 | Suns | 12-10 (.545) |
12 | Knicks | 10-9 (.526) |
13 | 76ers | 14-13 (.519) |
14 | Blazers | 15-14 (.517) |
T-15 | Bucks | 12-12 (.500) |
T-15 | Wolves | 11-11 (.500) |
17 | Hawks | 11-12 (.478) |
18 | Kings | 8-10 (.444) |
T-19 | Celtics | 11-14 (.440) |
T-19 | Cavaliers | 11-14 (.440) |
21 | Rockets | 10-13 (.435) |
22 | Mavericks | 13-18 (.419) |
23 | Clippers | 7-10 (.412) |
24 | Warriors | 8-12 (.400) |
25 | Wizards | 6-9 (.400) |
26 | Grizzlies | 10-17 (.370) |
27 | Pelicans | 8-17 (.320) |
28 | Pacers | 6-14 (.300) |
29 | Hornets | 5-13 (.278) |
30 | Nets | 4-15 (.211) |
Why the Lakers overall record might be a mirage
As noted in the table above, the Lakers are essentially in their own tier when it comes to clutch record at 14-2 overall. It must be said that clutch record is not entirely random by any means. A quick glance at the table reveals at the bottom part of the standings are filled with some of the worst teams in the NBA, while the top section is populated more by teams with superior overall profiles. However, any team winning nearly 90 percent of its clutch games would not be sustainable, even if that team was clearly elite in the way of, for example, the reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder.
Beyond that, the Lakers also have a net rating (i.e. point differential) that simply does not support the team's overall record. It is common for a few edge cases to emerge every season in this fashion, but the Lakers are 28-17 overall while they have been out-scored for the season by their opponents. That is almost difficult to do over a 45-game sample size, and net rating is often far more predictive of actual team quality than win-loss record.
Despite their 28 wins, the Lakers currently land behind the likes of the Charlotte Hornets (19-28), Miami Heat (25-22), Philadelphia 76ers (24-21), and L.A. Clippers (21-24) on the net rating leaderboard, narrowly edging the Orlando Magic (23-22) and Atlanta Hawks (23-25) by the same metric. In short, there isn't much under the surface to tell you that the Lakers are actually a team that should be 28-17 right now, and the team's clutch brilliance is part of that formula.
Lakers fans would certainly know that the team's defense is its biggest concern. Los Angeles currently ranks No. 25 in the NBA in defensive rating (117.0), and no team with a worse defense than the Lakers currently has more than 15 victories. To be fair, the Lakers are No. 7 in offense, which makes sense with the presence of Doncic, James, and Reaves, but the defensive challenges are another datapoint in what is pretty clearly a mirage of a record... at least to some degree. Are the Lakers pretty good? Maybe. Are the Lakers a 51-win team on paper in the way that the win-loss record suggests? Not so much.
Other mirage contenders
The Toronto Raptors boast a sparkling 29-19 record that isn't quite backed up with underlying metrics. Similar to Los Angeles, Toronto is over-performing in clutch games (17-7) and the Raptors have a net rating (plus-2.1) that is perhaps more in line with a 26-22 or 27-21 team over that sample. Los Angeles has the biggest such disparity, but Toronto's case is adjacent.
The Chicago Bulls have played a bevy of close games and snuck away with victories in more than half of those clutch contests. That helps to allow Chicago to post a 23-23 record despite a -2.3 net rating on the season. The team with the closest overall profile to Chicago this season is the Dallas Mavericks, and Dallas has a record of 19-27.
On the bottom, clutch situations have been unkind to the Brooklyn Nets this season. Brooklyn has the league's worst clutch record, and that contributes to Brooklyn sitting with a 12-32 record despite a point differential that is a bit kinder overall. As noted above, poor teams tend to lose clutch games, but in the opposite way of the Lakers, it would be silly to expect any team to lose 80 percent of clutch contests.