In order to pull off an upset in the NBA Playoffs, you need to steal at least one game on the road over the course of a seven-game series. Only a handful of teams are capable of that — especially in the West, where the top of the bracket is historically dominant.
That said, let's dive into the road records for each NBA team this season, which could suggest a few potential Cinderellas worth believing in come April.
Eastern Conference standings by road record
Rank | Team | Road Record |
|---|---|---|
1 | Detroit Pistons | 21-9 |
2 | Boston Celtics | 21-11 |
3 | Toronto Raptors | 19-11 |
4 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 18-13 |
5 | Philadelphia 76ers | 17-12 |
6 | Charlotte Hornets | 18-15 |
7 | Atlanta Hawks | 18-15 |
8 | New York Knicks | 16-14 |
9 | Orlando Magic | 13-15 |
10 | Miami Heat | 14-18 |
11 | Milwaukee Bucks | 12-19 |
12 | Chicago Bulls | 10-19 |
13 | Brooklyn Nets | 7-25 |
14 | Washington Wizards | 5-24 |
15 | Indiana Pacers | 5-25 |
The Hornets have won six straight to emerge as the premier sleeper in a wide-open East. No, Charlotte is not going to win the conference, but with LaMelo Ball healthy, Brandon Miller leveling up and Kon Knueppel enjoying the most efficient rookie shooting season in recent memory, it's hard not to feel like Charlotte could flip the bracket on its head in the right matchup. Their record away from home backs up such a claim, especially if Charlotte can escape the Play-In and claim the sixth seed with sustained momentum.
Atlanta is another Play-In team that has found some success away from its home floor. The deadline signaled a focus on next season and beyond, but the Hawks don't have their pick in the upcoming NBA Draft; this is not a tanking situation. Jalen Johnson ranks higher than you'd probably think on a list of the best players in the Eastern Conference playoffs, assuming the Hawks reach that point. If Jonathan Kuminga continues to roll, Atlanta can at least put up a commendable fight in the first round. Actually toppling Detroit or Boston, however, is probably not in the cards.
The Raptors and Sixers — fifth and sixth in the East, respectively — have both fared well on the road this season, which could bode favorably in a 3-6 or 4-5 matchup. Cleveland and New York would be the host teams if the current bracket holds. Both are excellent at home, but the odds are not entirely unfavorable. Toronto's defense tends to travel, while Philadelphia with a healthy Joel Embiid and Paul George (in a perfect world) is far better than your standard away team.
Western Conference standings by road record
Rank | Team | Road Record |
|---|---|---|
1 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 24-8 |
2 | San Antonio Spurs | 22-11 |
3 | Denver Nuggets | 22-12 |
4 | Los Angeles Lakers | 19-13 |
5 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 18-12 |
6 | Houston Rockets | 18-15 |
7 | Phoenix Suns | 15-14 |
8 | LA Clippers | 14-18 |
9 | Portland Trail Blazers | 14-18 |
10 | Golden State Warriors | 13-17 |
11 | Memphis Grizzlies | 11-19 |
12 | New Orleans Pelicans | 9-23 |
13 | Utah Jazz | 8-23 |
14 | Dallas Mavericks | 7-21 |
15 | Sacramento Kings | 5-28 |
Here is a silver lining for the disgruntled Lakers fans out there: This has been a trying season, but L.A. is still a top-six seed with a two-game lead over seventh-place Phoenix. Moreover, Luka Dončić, Austin Reaves and LeBron James are all incredible offensive engines, all with varying levels of postseason experience. If this team can perform away from Staples (sorry, not calling it "Crypto"), with Dončić on a bender and LeBron still locked in, we are probably mildly underrating what the Lakers are capable of, even with such a mismatched roster.
In reality, these road records do seem to encapsulate the general vibes around the slate of West contenders. While Houston can pummel you with size and dominate at home, it's hard to shoot 3s at such a low volume and win a seven-game series in today's NBA. Minnesota still runs into problems when Anthony Edwards can't carry the offense on his own. Denver and San Antonio feel like the most complete non-OKC teams in the conference, and the two most capable of traveling into a loud, uncomfortable Thunder arena and taking a couple games.
Current NBA postseason bracket
East
1. Detroit Pistons (45-16) vs 8. ORL (33-28) or MIA (34-29) or CHA (32-31) or ATL (32-31)
Detroit is the best team in the East by every metric. Limited experience and less star power than other top seeds will keep the Pistons from becoming consensus favorites to win the conference, but Cade Cunningham has legitimate MVP buzz and J.B. Bickerstaff's team defends like hell.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers (39-24) vs 5. Toronto Raptors (35-27)
The James Harden trade was an immediate boon for Cleveland's offense, but then again, Harden's postseason track record is less than ideal. Toronto's lack of shooting and playmaking around Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram leads me to bet against the Raps in a seven-game series, but their length on defense could give the Cavs' backcourt problems.
3. New York Knicks (40-23) vs 6. Philadelphia 76ers (34-28)
If Embiid and George are healthy and Tyrese Maxey isn't completely worn down, this series is eminently winnable for the Sixers. That said, the Knicks have the recent edge historically and it's hard to bet against the home team at MSG, especially given Philadelphia's lengthy track record of postseason flameouts.
2. Boston Celtics (41-21) vs 7. ORL (33-28) or 8. MIA (34-29)
Boston welcomes back Jayson Tatum for the stretch run, which only adds to their case as the sleeper favorite to win the conference. Joe Mazzulla is a top-tier coach, Jaylen Brown and Derrick White are enjoying career years and Boston just out-executes the majority of its opponents. Orlando and Miami don't have the talent to keep up.
West
1. Oklahoma City Thunder (49-15) vs 8. PHX (35-27) or GSW (32-30) or LAC (30-31) or POR (30-33)
The champs are the champs for a reason. With all due respect to these very competent teams, the Thunder aren't losing until the second round at the absolute earliest.
4. Houston Rockets (38-23) vs 5. Denver Nuggets (39-24)
This should be a fun series, as Houston's defense is bonafide. But here's where picking the road team is almost easy. Nikola Jokić, Jamal Murray and a better-than-ever Nuggets bench mob will be very hard to dispatch, even with home-court advantage.
3. Minnesota Timberwolves (40-23) vs 6. Los Angeles Lakers (37-25)
It can't get much better than an Anthony Edwards vs. Luka Dončić barn-burner in the first round. Los Angeles has more robust offensive infrastructure, and Dončić has carried teams on his back before. That said, the Wolves' defense is way easier to trust, despite L.A.'s success on the road this season.
2. San Antonio Spurs (45-17) vs 7. PHX (35-27) or GSW (32-30)
Phoenix, should it prevail over Golden State in the Play-In Tournament, is better than your average seventh seed. The Spurs are younger than most No. 2 seeds by comparison, with spacing issues to boot. Even so, Victor Wembanyama is approaching superhuman status and San Antonio is navigating the West gauntlet with remarkable grace. There's no way to pick an upset.