NBA standings ordered by SRS: Why the Western Conference will be a bloodbath

I love advanced stats in sports. If not for them, we would have no way of explaining 2008-09 Danny Granger and Brandon Roy (R.I.P.). Without them, there would be zero context to offer for why Cam Thomas' scoring numbers are what they are while he's still just an average NBA player. Of course they can go too far: The 2017-18 Houston Rockets were built with analytics in mind and still never got over the hump. But when added in the right dosage along with hard numbers and the good old' eye test, the numbers can help provide some of the most well-rounded pictures in sports.

And one stat in particular paints a rather horrifying playoff picture for the Western Conference: SRS, or the Simple Rating System. Averaged at the score of 0, the SRS rating combines a team's point differential and calculated strength of schedule to act as a measure of its overall strength. And through the first month of NBA action, the Oklahoma City Thunder (11.11), Denver Nuggets (10.40) and Houston Rockets (9.81) are absolute SRS juggernauts. But what's scary about these three is not just that their SRS ratings pace the league. While the spacing between each of them is about 0.6 points, the New York Knicks — the team with the fourth-highest rating — is almost 3.5 points behind Houston (6.34).

The NBA ranked by SRS rating

Let's get some actual context into the SRS rating and what it might actually say about the early NBA season. Below is each team ranked in order of their SRS score, as well as their record thus far this year.

You'll notice two exceptions right away: The Spurs and Pistons have weaker scores relative to their records. In San Antonio's case, their score was likely influenced by the five bottom-feeder opponents they've faced thus far, while Detroit has had four games decided by single digits, three of which came by less than five points. For teams like the the Cavs and Heat, SRS alone might not be enough of a measurement of team strength. But aside from jostling at the top of the SRS rankings, the score generally gets it right (pour one out for the Pacers). And for the teams in the middle, SRS can at least be a useful tool to indicate holes in the roster or game plan.

How historic are the top three 2025-26 SRS scores?

This is what makes OKC, Denver and Houston so scary: Relative to last season, the Thunder's SRS rating is actually down by over a point, from 12.70. Denver and Houston are also giving them a better run than any team did in 2024-25, as no one that season aside from the Thunder even cracked an SRS score of nine.

But it gets even crazier the farther back you go. The SRS rating might actually be the best argument for true parity in the league after the collapse of the Curry/KD Warriors, as OKC was the first team since 2016-17 to post an SRS rating above 11. The 2023-24 Celtics were the only ones to post one above 10 in that same period.

The fact that OKC is doing this for a second year in a row without their second option in Jalen Williams is remarkable. But the worst part for the rest of the league, especially the Western Conference, is this: As insane as the Thunder's SRS numbers are, there has been no research that has shown a single season where at least three teams posted an SRS score above a nine. And if you manage to avoid all three in the first round of the playoffs, you still likely have to deal with Victor Wembanyama's Spurs.

Good luck.