The end of the NBA regular season has been a little anti-climatic in the sense that we've basically known which 20 teams will be competing in the play-in/playoffs for quite some time now.
Still, while the outcome is now obvious, we didn't always know that these 20 teams would be the ones representing their respective conferences when the season first tipped off. The Phoenix Suns, San Antonio Spurs, Portland Trail Blazers, Charlotte Hornets, and Philadelphia 76ers were all in the bottom-10 last year before flipping the switch this year.
So, which of this year's bottom-feeders have the best chance of following in their footsteps?
Utah Jazz
The Utah Jazz are going to be a fascinating watch next year. Between the metronomic-excellence of Lauri Markkanen, the brilliance of head coach Will Hardy, and the emergence of Keyonte George, the Jazz were already pretty respectable (10-15 to start the year) before their annual shameless tank.
This was before their blockbuster trade for two-time All-Star Jaren Jackson Jr. at the trade deadline. In a league that places a premium on the rare blend of size and skill, the Jazz will have the opportunity to regular field three big lineups (Walker Kessler, Jackson, and Markkanen) that few teams could ever access.
Couple these endless possibilities with George, Ace Bailey, Isaiah Collier, and whoever they end up selecting in this cycle, and the Jazz will have a nice blend of veterans and youngsters to help them make their first playoff appearance since 2022.
Indiana Pacers
After coming within one win of an NBA Championship, the Indiana Pacers are the worst team in the Eastern Conference.
The return of Tyrese Haliburton is the most obvious key to a 2026-27 turnaround. However, one player can only change so much. And no one can realistically expect Haliburton to make a team 30-35 wins better just one year back from a torn Achilles.
Fortunately, there are other avenues the Pacers can bank on improvement from. For instance, after losing Myles Turner in free agency, Indiana played most of the year without a true starting caliber center. Their trade deadline acquisition of Ivica Zubac will more than fill this void, though.
The Pacers also had one of the most miserable injury seasons in the league this year. Outside of Haliburton, guys like Andrew Nembhard, Pascal Siakam, Obi Toppin, Aaron Nesmith, and T.J. McConnell have all missed significant time due to injury. According to Spotrac, Indiana is second in the entire NBA in cash lost due to player injuries.
A healthy team and the addition of Zubac (and a potential top four pick?) should be enough to get the Pacers back to the playoffs in 2026-27.
Dallas Mavericks
Speaking of injuries, the poor Dallas Mavericks are right behind the Pacers at third in cash lost due to player injuries. Kyrie Irving, the best offensive player on the roster, hasn't played a single second this year. Dereck Lively II has only played seven games. P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford have missed a combined 40 games. The list goes on and on.
Those are four of the top six players from their 2024 team that made it all the way to the NBA Finals. And while they no longer have Luka Doncic (sorry again, Mavericks fans) they do have Cooper Flagg, who keeps looking more and more like the generational talent that he was hyped to be heading into the 2025 Draft with each passing game.
All these injuries have allowed other youngsters like Brandon Williams and Ryan Nembhard to carve out roles for themselves. If the Mavericks can make some nice moves around the margins this offseason (like holding on to Max Christie and Naji Marshall), they should have enough to challenge for the play-in tournament in 2026-27.
Washington Wizards
In a similar vein to the Jazz, the Washington Wizards basically announced that they would be trying to be competitive next year, as they traded for a pair of former All-NBA players in Trae Young and Anthony Davis.
If they can get 60-65 games from each of those guys (a tall task, I know) and some internal development from the likes of Kyshawn George, Bilal Coulibaly, Alexander Sarr, and Tre Johnson, Washington could backdoor their way into the play-in tournament next season.