The NBA Draft Lottery was a mournful procession for Brooklyn Nets fans. Equipped with the sixth-best odds to land No. 1, the Nets wound up falling two spots to No. 8. This is a deep lottery class, but the chances of a swing and miss increase with each successive slot on draft night. The latest reporting on Brooklyn's potential draft plans won't help fans sleep any easier.
According to The Stein Line's Jake Fischer, there is "consistent buzz" around BYU point-wing Egor Demin as a potential target for the Nets at No. 8. Demin has made plenty of fans during the pre-draft process, as his skill set is sure to play well in an open gym, workout type of setting. It lets him shoot without pressure while his sky-high basketball IQ is readily available on the game tape.
Generally it's smart to invest in high-feel players, which Demin absolutely is. He also occupies an intriguing and highly valuable archetype as a 6-foot-9 wing capable of running pick-and-rolls and setting the table offensively. It's the modern NBA: Every team wants a jumbo point guard with a scalable skill set.
Demin is a great "in theory" prospect, and there's a chance I look silly 10 years from now when his ceiling is actualized and he's leading Brooklyn to another postseason berth. But right now, color me skeptical of Demin reaching his ceiling. He is the 37th-ranked prospect on the FanSided big board.
Nets should think twice about investing in Egor Demin with No. 8 pick
The most popular comp for Demin out in the draftverse is probably Josh Giddey. That's a tad reductive, as both are tall international point guards, but what holds Giddey back in the NBA generally applies to Demin. This may sound silly coming off of such a productive season from Giddey in Chicago, but my honest opinion is that Giddey was a much better prospect and has a more dynamic skill set. He is also vastly overrated because he put up numbers on a bad Bulls team.
Demin shot 27.3 percent on 3s at BYU. It's a small sample size, just one season, but it aligns with his trends going back to Europe. He shot 69.5 percent on free throws. There's a lot of "if he can shoot" logic applied to Demin's NBA projection, but the indicators just aren't great. He doesn't flash elite touch and finesse around the basket. He's missing left and right. The mechanics look fine enough, but the results aren't there. We should credit him for the volume of 3s he attempted — 4.7 per game — but it's unclear if Demin can force NBA defenses to close out hard.
That alone is enough to merit skepticism, but even more worrisome is Demin's inability to score inside the arc. If he was an elite driver, one could more easily overlook the shooting concerns. But Demin lacks the burst to win at the point of attack. He's also not strong enough to handle physicality. If that's a problem in college, it will manifest tenfold in the NBA.
Demin is 19, so there's time for him to grow into his frame and get better in this department. But right now, he's too often stymied by bullish guards or wings, which can lead to ill-advised long 2s or even turnovers. He doesn't get to the rim much, and when he does he lacks the vertical pop and strength to handle heavy traffic. I just don't think this dude is an NBA scorer right now, which makes it very hard to stick.
He is, without question, a dazzling playmaker. He can run the offense, but perhaps more immediately valuable is his ability to dial it back and operate as a connector. If the Nets can surround Demin with shooters, a lob threat and another legitimate half-court creator — ideally an athletic guard capable of getting into the paint and sustaining advantages — then you can start the see the vision a little bit. But Brooklyn's roster is a blank slate. Guys like Nic Claxton and Cam Johnson will get traded eventually. Cam Thomas and D'Angelo Russell, if they re-sign, are not the type of guards Demin needs beside him.
The Nets should be swinging for a foundational star they can build the offense around. A real cornerstone type. Demin isn't really that. There is upside, but Demin has several hurdles to clear before he's delivering the All-Star results so many proponents seem to be projecting for him. It's worth noting that the defense is ... subpar, right now at least. He's not quick enough to defend most guards and stronger wing or forward types will plow right through him.
Maybe this works out. Clearly NBA front offices see something I don't, so who am I to disagree? But I would just advise caution for the Nets with Demin, especially at No. 8. If he tumbles to No. 19, then we can talk.