The Denver Nuggets got both good news and bad news on Tuesday.
The bad news: Star center Nikola Jokić is going to miss at least four weeks due to a hyperextended left knee that he suffered in Monday's loss to the Miami Heat, the team announced Tuesday. The good news is that his knee ligaments are intact, according to ESPN's Shams Charania, so this shouldn't be a season-ending injury.
If Jokić returns in exactly four weeks, he'd miss the Nuggets' next 15 games. If they play it safe with him and hold him out through the mid-February All-Star break, he'd miss 24 games.
Either way, his knee injury just blew the race for the NBA's Most Valuable Player wide open.
Jokić's quest for a fourth MVP is now likely over
Prior to this injury, Jokić was in the midst of a historic season. He's averaging a career-high 29.6 points along with a league-leading 12.2 rebounds and 11.0 assists per game. He's also shooting 60.5 percent overall and a career-best 43.5 percent from deep. As John Hollinger of The Athletic noted Tuesday, Jokić was on pace to break both the league's single-season records for PER and box plus/minus.
However, this injury will likely cost Jokić a shot at becoming only the sixth player in NBA history to win at least four MVP awards.
The NBA's latest collective bargaining agreement requires players to play in at least 65 games to be eligible for MVP, Defensive Player of the Year or the All-NBA teams. Jokić has yet to miss a game this season, but even if he's out for only 15 games due to this injury, he could miss only two more games over the rest of the season before becoming ineligible.
Since the Nuggets' announcement only said that Jokić will be re-evaluated in four weeks, not that he's set to return in exactly four weeks, this injury will likely make him ineligible for both MVP and the All-NBA teams this year. Ironically, this happened shortly after his 56-point, 16-rebound, 15-assist eruption against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Christmas Day briefly vaulted him into the lead for MVP.
Who's the MVP favorite now?
With Jokić likely out of the running for the league's top honor, reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is now the clear favorite to go back-to-back. Although the Oklahoma City Thunder have shown some signs of mortality recently, SGA is basically duplicating his production from last season—32.2 points, 6.4 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game—while shooting far more efficiently (55.9 percent overall, 41.9 percent from deep).
The Nuggets looked like one of the main threats to the Thunder's Western Conference supremacy, but with four of their five starters now sidelined, OKC has a clear runway to the No. 1 seed again. If SGA maintains this level of production while guiding the Thunder to the top seed in the vastly tougher conference, his MVP case may be unassailable.
Los Angeles Lakers guard Luka Dončić is putting up video game-esque numbers—a league-leading 33.7 points along with 8.6 assists and 8.3 rebounds per game—but he has already missed seven games this season. That means he can miss no more than 10 of the Lakers' remaining 52 games before he becomes ineligible for MVP as well. The Lakers will need him to keep putting up huge numbers with Austin Reaves out for at least the next month, though.
Cade Cunningham is averaging career highs in points (26.5), assists (9.6) and rebounds (6.3) while guiding the Detroit Pistons to the top of the Eastern Conference, but Gilgeous-Alexander holds a clear advantage over him in terms of shooting efficiency. As a result, SGA is doubling up Cade in both box plus/minus and value over replacement player.
Jalen Brunson is also averaging a career-high 29.4 points per game and has the New York Knicks sitting right behind Cunningham's Pistons, but SGA is ahead of him in basically every category except assists per game. Tyrese Maxey is averaging a career-high 30.7 points per game, but the Philadelphia 76ers are hovering right around .500, and SGA is still lapping him in both scoring volume and efficiency.
If Victor Wembanyama was guaranteed to play 65-plus games, he might be the biggest threat to SGA in the MVP race. However, he already missed 12 games with a calf strain, which means he can miss only five more games over the rest of the season before becoming ineligible for MVP. The Spurs have also been cautious with his minutes since his return, which is limiting his otherwise otherworldly production. He went from averaging 26.2 points, 12.9 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 3.6 blocks prior to the injury to 20.8 points, 9.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 2.1 blocks per game since his return.
As long as SGA continues to stay healthy and keep the Thunder at the top of the West, he now has a clear runway to win back-to-back MVPs thanks to Jokić's injury.