There's no beating around the bush: Paolo Banchero has struggled to meet his high standards this season, and it's been connected to the Orlando Magic's disappointing overall season. The 23-year-old is averaging 21.8 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 5 assists on 45.3/31.5/77.3 shooting splits. Considering that he averaged 25.9 points last season, this is a sizable decline. This has turned Paolo into a punching bag for the NBA Twitter community.
However, in an 82-game season, there's plenty of time to flip the script, and it seems like Paolo is doing just that. Since the All-Star break, Banchero has averaged 27 points, 9 rebounds, and 7 assists on 44.8/43.8/92 shooting splits. Paolo's 36-point, 10-rebound, six-assist outing in Tuesday's win over the Los Angeles Lakers was the best game of his season. This increased production is paired with a 3-1 record for the Magic.
Yes, this is a small sample size of four games, but it's also super encouraging, and if Paolo's play continues, the Magic could turn things around.
What has changed for Paolo post All-Star break
Listen, I'm not here to tell you that Paolo has magically transformed into some efficient scoring threat during this stretch; he still has some maddening shot selection at times. This ability to take (and often make) difficult shots might always be a part of Paolo's game; he has a lot of similarities to Julius Randle in this regard.
One simple change in recent games has been that Paolo is simply making his difficult shots, especially from 3-point range.
Beyond that, Paolo is balancing out playmaking and scoring much better post All-Star break. With Desmond Bane's arrival, Banchero has made a concerted effort to defer to his teammates more. Notably, his field goal attempts are down from 19.8 last season to 16.1 this year. Yet his assist percentage is down from 26 to 22.4.
Part of this is due to Paolo's poor decision-making as a playmaker, but another factor is that he isn't an off-ball threat.
Here are two plays that show Paolo's growth in these areas. In the first play, he originally tries to get the ball near the basket, but he smartly relocates to the corner and hits the open triple. The next play shows how defenses still respond to his gravity and his ability to find the open man with accuracy.
These plays might not make highlight reels, but they represent positive flashes that could help Paolo reach another level. Wanting to get your teammates involved is great, but for most of the year, Paolo's decision-making has been subpar. Furthermore, to truly maximize offense for your teammates, being able to spot up and move off the ball is essential.
Banchero feels like he's finding ways to balance out his ability to take over the game as a scorer with the need to get others involved. This process simply feels more natural than it did earlier in the year. Undoubtedly, the process of blending scoring and playmaking remains a work in progress for Paolo. However, there's no denying that Banchero is showing signs of this changing for the better, and as we enter the stretch run, the timing couldn't be better.
We've seen Paolo play at a top-20-level before, and I'm inclined to believe this recent stretch will be a turning point for him.
Don't write off the Magic just yet
Currently, the Magic are the No. 7 seed in the East and have arguably been the most disappointing team in the league. Nevertheless, they are a half-game behind the No. 6 seed Philadelphia 76ers and the No. 5 seed 1.5 games behind the No. 5 seed Toronto Raptors.
As such, if this play continues for Paolo, the Magic could go on a late-season surge. The Magic are certainly one of the five most talented teams in the East. Heck, most people (including myself) thought they were title contenders before the season started.
Despite the Magic having an underwhelming season overall, there have been consistent postives including Anthony Black's growth. Plus, there's the factor of Franz Wagner's possible return. Now this isn't a guarantee, as last week he was ruled out indefinitely with a high ankle sprain. Regardless, he will also be re-evaluated in two weeks. If Wagner returns to a red-hot Magic team, then they could have real upside come playoff time.
I get it, this is a lot of "ifs," but my point is that it's possible for the Magic to turn things around. The Magic aren't contenders like we thought heading into the season, but they could be a tough out come playoff time.