The NBA is slowly pulling back the curtain on the 2025-26 season schedule. On Tuesday, fans found out the matchups for Opening Night, Opening Week, Christmas Day and Martin Luther King Day. Wednesday brought the official unveiling of the groups and schedule for the NBA Cup. Adam Silver, you tease, you.
Call me crazy, but I love the NBA Cup. Before you ask, no I didn't become an NBA fan yesterday. I know a lot of fans couldn't care less about the event formerly known as the In-Season Tournament, but that's what gets me. Give me a tournament and I'm good to go, no matter who's competing or what they're playing.
The NBA Cup is great, and more fans need to get on board. It's basically the World Cup, except with NBA teams. Six groups of five teams play a round-robin, with each group winner and two wild cards advancing to the elimination round. After that it's one loss and you're out. That's some pretty high stakes, especially in November and December when football is normally dominating the conversation.
It's been an eventful offseason, with trades, draft picks, free agents and new coaches all hoping to make a difference. Opening Night is still over two months away, so it'll be some time until we see how effective each of these moves was, but who are we fooling? The NBA has seen more parity in recent times than at any point in its 77-year history. Any predictions made now are just as likely to come true as those made in the fall, so let's take the plunge and talk some basketball, shall we?
Let's go group by group and figure out who's going to survive and advance. For reference, the NBA presented each group in order of where they finished in the regular season in 2024-25.
Expect the Cavs to cruise through East Group A
East Group A consists of the Cavs, Pacers, Hawks, Raptors and Wizards. Let's start at the bottom and work our way up. Washington is piecing together what could be a solid young core, but it's still a ways away from contending. Alex Sarr showed promise in his rookie season, and sixth overall pick Tre Johnson could be a steal. Jordan Poole was traded for CJ McCollum, and the former Pelican should provide a steadying veteran presence. Cam Whitmore was also acquired for the low price of just two second-round picks. I like what Washington is doing, but they won only 18 games last year and aren't going to find their way out of this group.
Ditto for the Raptors, who seem to be kind of rudderless. They won 30 games last year and have kept the status quo for some reason, so they'll probably be in the lottery again, even in a weakened Eastern Conference. Brandon Ingram and Scottie Barnes aren't enough for anyone to take Toronto seriously.
The Hawks are playing it cool with Trae Young's potential contract extension, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. I like what Atlanta did this summer in trading for Kristaps Porzingis and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and signing Luke Kennard to a one-year prove-it deal was a smart, low-risk move. Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels made a big leap last year, and Daniels led the league in steals by a mile. Atlanta is my dark horse in this group, and though I think Cleveland will edge them out, they're very much in play for a wild card.
Thinking about the Pacers makes me sad. They took all of us on such a magical run this spring, but with Tyrese Haliburton set to miss the season with the torn Achilles he suffered in Game 7 of the Finals, and Myles Turner Benedict Arnold-ing his way to Milwaukee, there seems to be no way Indiana can pull another rabbit out of its hat.
The Cavs fell on their face against the Pacers, but in the regular season, they were a juggernaut. Only OKC finished with a better record, and there's no reason to believe much will change this year. Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen are still there, and Evan Mobley could even take another step towards stardom. Unlike in the postseason, Darius Garland should be healthy. The Cavs are the favorites in the East for a reason, and they'll win this group.
East Group B is stacked, but a dark horse could emerge
With the Celtics, Pistons, Magic, Nets and 76ers set to fight it out, East Group B is wide open. To keep it fresh, let's start at the top for this one. The Celtics are going to look very different than the team that won the 2024 title and finished second in the East last year. Jayson Tatum is going to miss most or all of the season with his own torn Achilles. Not only that, Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis were traded away, and Luke Kornet signed with the Spurs. Even with Anfernee Simons there to help Jaylen Brown and Derrick White, it feels inevitable that Boston takes a step back.
Last season was a long time coming for the Pistons. JB Bickerstaff replaced Monty Williams and helped engineer a 30-game turnaround to bring the franchise its first taste of playoff basketball since 2019. Cade Cunningham made "The Leap," Jalen Duran established himself as one of the best young bigs in the league, and the rest of the roster evoked comparisons to the Bad Boy Pistons teams that used to beat up everyone in their way. The Pistons have even higher expectations this year, but they're going to miss Malik Beasley's shooting if the federal gambling investigation he's currently embroiled in doesn't go his way. They'll be good, they'll be tough, but this is a nasty group. I say they fall short.
The Magic looked like contenders for a time last year, but for as good as their defense was, their offense was actually worse. All their bad injury luck should revert to the mean, and Desmond Bane's arrival should help immensely. They're a real candidate to jump up and become a top-four seed behind Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs, who should be ready for the start of the season after missing the end of the year with a knee injury. Still, they're not built to go 4-0 against these teams, at least not yet.
I'm not sure much needs to be said about the Nets, if I'm being honest. They traded Cam Johnson away for Michael Porter Jr., and the consensus seems to be that the Nuggets won big in that one. D'Angelo Russell is gone to Dallas, and though Cam Thomas remains unsigned as of now, I'd be shocked if he goes anywhere else. Add it all up and you get one big collective MEH.
The Sixers could have changed their logo to a dumpster fire last year and nobody would have noticed. They were a train wreck of the highest order, and they still have Joel Embiid and Paul George, arguably the two worst contracts in the NBA. Why am I picking them to win the group, then? Great question. Embiid can't be any more injured than he was last year, right? The NBA Cup is early enough in the season that he should be in shape, and he won't have worn himself out playing in the Olympics as he did last summer. George is sufficiently embarrassed by his performance that he'll be back with at least a mini vengeance. It's the young guys I'm really excited about, though. VJ Edgecombe is going to be a difference maker, and Philly will also welcome back Jared McCain, who was the clear Rookie of the Year frontrunner before he tore his meniscus in December. Tyrese Maxey is an All-Star, and though everything around him was in flames, Quentin Grimes was a revelation. Let's go with the underdog and pick the Sixers to shock the world.
The Knicks will finally be the ones to end Darvin Ham's NBA Cup reign of terror
East Group C feels like a two-horse race. The Hornets, Heat and Bulls are all going to struggle to hover around .500, even if everything goes right. That leaves the Knicks and Bucks, and that matchup is more interesting than it sounds. That's because Darvin Ham does not lose in the NBA Cup. He won the inaugural tournament as head coach of the Lakers before being fired just a few months later, and he won it again last year as the Bucks' top assistant. The man is 14-0 lifetime! Milwaukee is the defending champs after beating the Thunder for the title last year.
The Bucks also, at least as of now, have Giannis Antetokounmpo, and that's enough to give any team a chance. They also waived Damian Lillard and signed Myles Turner, which may be good in the short term but could cripple them in the future. Still, they'll have a shot against the Knicks, who along with the Cavs are one of the two favorites in the East.
The Knicks are running it back with the same group that got to the Eastern Conference Finals last year, but that might be enough this time around to take it one step further. Unlike when they ended the 2023-24 season as the walking wounded, they mostly survived last season intact. Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, newly extended Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby and Josh Hart will be enough to win this group and get to the elimination round.
West Group A could send two teams to the elimination round
As we shift to the West, our first group looks a lot like what we just left in the East. Even more than the Knicks and Bucks should clearly outclass the other three teams they'll face, the Thunder and Wolves are the cream of the crop, possibly in the entire league, but certainly in their NBA Cup group.
The less time we have to talk about the Kings, Suns and Jazz, the better, so let's just put them at the kids table while we let the adults handle this. I think both OKC and Minnesota will make it through to the elimination round, but who's going to wn the group? There are a few competing forces at play. The Wolves are going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder after the Thunder handled them rather easily in the Western Conference Finals, but OKC will also want to avenge its NBA Cup finals loss, pretty much the only failure they endured all season.
The tiebreaker for me is who has homecourt. This game will be played in OKC at the Paycom Center, a venue where the Thunder went 35-6 in the regular season last year. In the conference finals, they beat the Wolves all three times they faced them at home, by a combined 71 points. That's enough reason to pick them to top the group.
West Group B has the best storylines, but who is going to make it out?
Both L.A. teams are in West Group B, which already is enough reason to tune in to these games. The Mavericks are also there, which means Cooper Flagg is there, Anthony Davis is there and a matchup with Luka Doncic is there. Megan Thee Stallion, aka Klay Thompson's new boo, will also probably be there. The Grizzlies and Pelicans will be present, too, and though they're the underdogs, it's not like they're pushovers.
Yes, I know the Pelicans finished with the worst record in the league, but they really had a season from hell. Everyone was hurt, and that's no way to get ahead in the West, where every game is a battle. I still believe Zion Williamson can figure things out, which I know could be used against me in future psychological hearings, but whatever. Memphis has never fully put things together either, because Ja Morant, the player taken right after Zion in the 2019 draft, has also been largely unavailable. The Grizzlies trading Desmond Bane felt like the kind of move you make when you're pushing the reset button, but they haven't committed to a full sell-off, at least not yet.
We've all seen how Luka's offseason workout routine is going, and Lakers fans are justifiably excited after he signed a three-year extension. They should also be happy to have Deandre Ayton, who isn't going to move mountains or even the Hollywood hills, but will be a more-than-capable center on a team that really could have used one last year. We all know LeBron James will be anxious to add another line to his resume by winning his second NBA Cup, too.
The Lakers host the Mavericks in their final group play game, but I think the group will be decided by then. That's because the Clippers are going to wrap this up by already beating both of them. The Clips are basically the team from Uncle Drew this season, especially after signing 40-year-old Chris Paul to join the aging core of James Harden and Kawhi Leonard. Bradley Beal is also in the mix and hoping for a new lease on life.
The Clippers' creaky bones will more than likely catch up to them in April and May, but before we reach Christmas, they should be feeling spry. Ivica Zubac, Brook Lopez and John Collins will bring the frontcourt size and depth, and the over-the-hill gang will do the rest. Clips advance.
The Rockets will make an early case to be taken seriously by winning West Group C
Top to bottom, West Group C looks like so much fun. The Rockets went all-in for a championship by trading for Kevin Durant. The Nuggets made one smart move after another this offseason, finally giving Nikola Jokic all the help he needs after putting too much on his plate last year. Denver took the Thunder the distance in Round 2 of the playoffs, and now they have Cam Johnson, Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jonas Valanciunas.
The Warriors are still stuck in a staring contest with Jonathan Kuminga, but assuming that situation works itself out one way or another, they'll again be a team to be reckoned with. Steph Curry, a full year of Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green and a much-improved Brandin Podziemski will see to that.
Nobody was paying much attention to the Blazers late last year, but they finished with a bang, giving their fanbase hope that a playoff appearance could be possible. Damian Lillard also returned, and though he won't be ready to go for the NBA Cup, his presence on the team should still have trickle-down good vibe effects. Jrue Holiday should also help a defense that was already shockingly good.
Are the Spurs ready to reach for their considerable ceiling? Victor Wembanyama is good to go after a scary blood clot situation that ended his sophomore season, and now Dylan Harper is there to be the Robin to his Batman. De'Aaron Fox just locked in a mega extension, and after he was only able to play a handful of games with Wemby last year, we're all waiting to see how those two can work together.
I think this group comes down to the Rockets and Nuggets, and Houston gets the edge. Denver went 2-2 in both previous NBA Cups, and I'm just not sure they're motivated to give it their all in this event. The Rockets have a lot to prove this season, and since they haven't won a title in the last three years like the Nuggets have, they'll be incentivized to make a good showing here. Kevin Durant will prove his worth, Ime Udoka's hellacious defense will make life miserable for everyone, and they'll get through.
Who will win the third annual NBA Cup?
Just for fun, let's see this thing through to the finish line. In the East, the Cavs will beat the Bucks and the Knicks will take out the Sixers. Out west, the Rockets will beat the Wolves and the Thunder will handle the Clippers.
In the semis, I'm going with the Knicks to take out the Cavs and the Houston to make a statement against OKC. In a rematch of the 1994 Finals, I'll take the Rockets to make Hakeem Olajuwon proud and win it all.