The start of the 2025-26 NBA season is just over two months away, and it's not too early to start predicting which teams in each conference will surprise and disappoint this year. Last season, the Detroit Pistons were one of the biggest surprises, going from 14 wins the year before to the NBA Playoffs, while the Dallas Mavericks were considered to be among the most disappointing — cratering in the standings and trading away Luka Dončić.
Entering this NBA season, there is bound to be a team in each conference that will exceed expectations, while another will fall flat and dissapoint. Here's a look at the NBA teams that will fit into that category this season
Eastern Conference biggest surprise: Atlanta Hawks
Ever since reaching the Eastern Conference Finals in 2021, the Atlanta Hawks have been trying to claw their way back to the NBA Playoffs, falling in the Play-In Tournament multiple times. This season, the Hawks will find their way back in the playoffs and will benefit from the Indiana Pacers and Boston Celtics taking a step back with injuries to their star players.
The Hawks will once again be led by Trae Young and made several additions this offseason to improve their roster, including acquiring Kristaps Porziņģis in a three-team trade and signing Nickeil Alexander-Walker to a four-year, $62 million deal.
While the Hawks won't be considered a serious contender to compete for an NBA Championship, they will take advantage of a wide-open Eastern Conference and secure a top-six seed in the playoffs.
Eastern Conference biggest disappointment: Milwaukee Bucks
Giannis Antetokoumpo's future in Milwaukee has been the biggest question mark of the NBA offseason and remains unanswered. Regardless of whether Giannis stays with the Milwaukee Bucks or not, many argue that his championship window with the franchise is closed.
The Bucks have lost in the first round of the NBA playoffs the last three seasons, and that trend is likely to continue outside of Giannis. Milwaukee doesn't have a lot of depth that can help Giannis compete for an NBA Championship.
Expect another first round exit for the Bucks this season, if Giannis stays for a full season in a Milwaukee uniform.
Western Conference biggest surprise: San Antonio Spurs
The San Antonio Spurs have the blueprint to be a future NBA Champion with franchise player Victor Wembanyama. The Spurs are expected to take a major step forward this season with recent NBA Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle and 2025 NBA Draft No. 2 overall selection Dylan Harper.
The Spurs also have one aspect to their team that puts them at an advantage heading into the season — valuable depth. The Spurs finished last season with a 34-48 record and just a few games shy of a Play-In Tournament.
With a healthy Wemby, the Spurs have the potential to clinch a playoff spot in what is expected to be a loaded Western Conference next season.
Western Conference biggest disappointment: Golden State Warriors
With Steph Curry reaching the final stages of his career, many are expecting the Golden State Warriors to slowly start to see their relevancy as a Western Conference title contender decline starting next season.
The Warriors still have Jimmy Butler and can attract a star to the Bay Area, but outside of that, their current roster can only take them to one playoff series win at best.
The Warriors lack depth and size to make a serious run in the Western Conference, and with or without Jonathan Kuminga next season, Golden State is most likely at worst looking at a spot in the NBA Play-In Tournament. This offseason, the Warriors considered signing Al Horford and acquiring Giannis, but those goals never became reality.