Predicting the best NBA free-agency bargains a month before they happen

We're now one month out from the start of NBA free agency, and the pickings are already fairly slim.

Trae Young and James Harden are widely expected to re-sign with the Washington Wizards and Cleveland Cavaliers, respectively. LeBron James is a legitimate wild card, but aside from that, the top unrestricted free agents might be CJ McCollum, Kristaps Porziņģis and Tobias Harris? Hardly a murderer's row, to say the least.

Instead, teams will largely have to go shopping in the bargain bin in free agency this year. Luckily, there are plenty of potential values to be had.

Here's our look at some of the biggest potential free-agent steals based on their projected price tag and production.

Mark Williams, Phoenix Suns C

If health wasn't a concern, Mark Williams might be looking at a nine-figure contract this summer. He's a per-minute stats machine.

However, Williams has played in only 166 of a possible 328 regular-season games across his four-year NBA career. He played in a career-high 60 games this past season, but he missed a month late in the season with a stress reaction in his left foot, briefly returned at the beginning of April and then missed the Suns' brief playoff run due to the same injury.

Any free-agent suitors will inevitably have questions about why the L.A. Lakers rescinded their deal for Williams at the 2025 trade deadline after he failed their physical. At the time, sources told ESPN's Dave McMenamin that the physical "showed multiple issues," although "it was not failed due to his back," which limited him to only 19 games in 2023-24.

ESPN's Bobby Marks suggested a three-year, $42 million deal as the framework for Williams' contract this summer, while Gerald Bourguet of Sports360 wrote that the Suns "won't be offering some contract approaching $20 million in annual salary," as they believe Khaman Maluach will soon overtake him as their starting center.

Restricted free agency could work in the Suns' favor. Teams can't officially sign players to offer sheets until the July Moratorium is over on July 6. By that point, most teams might have already spent their cap space or mid-level exceptions.

Between his health concerns and how restricted free agency tends to chill the market for non-stars, it's possible that the Suns get Williams back on the cheap. He could be a steal if they get him for anything less than the $15.0 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception.

Robert Williams III, Portland Trail Blazers C

Mark Williams isn't the only soon-to-be free-agent center with a lengthy injury history. Robert Williams III has played in only 294 games across his eight-year NBA career and appeared in just 26 total games between the 2023-24 and 2024-25 campaigns.

Williams did play in 59 games this past season with the Portland Trail Blazers—the second-highest single-season mark of his career—but he averaged only 17.1 minutes per game behind Donovan Clingan. He put up 6.7 points, 7.0 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game in that limited floor time, but given his injury history, no team should be looking at him as an everyday starter.

Williams did show off some newfound three-point range this year after hitting only one triple across his first seven seasons combined. He was 9-of-23 from deep this season, which could give him additional appeal moving forward.

"The injury history will scare a lot of teams off," a Western Conference executive told ESPN's Tim Bontemps. "But when he plays, he's good. You just can't expect him to start for you because he won't be on the court if you play him that many minutes. He'll be good value if—a huge if—he can stay on the floor."

Bontemps reported that the "full mid-level [exception] on a short-term deal is being seen as the height of his market, with the potential of being closer to $10 million per year." That's a lot to spend on a backup center, but if Williams stays healthy, he has the potential to vastly outplay that price tag, particularly in the playoffs.

Sandro Mamukelashvili, Toronto Raptors C (player option)

Noticing a theme here? It's a good offseason to go shopping for a backup big man.

Sandro Mamukelashvili bounced between the Milwaukee Bucks and San Antonio Spurs across his first four NBA seasons, although he rarely got an opportunity to make a major impact on a game. He averaged only 9.6 minutes per game in Milwaukee and 12.5 minutes in San Antonio.

This past season with the Toronto Raptors, Mamukelashvili averaged a career-high 11.2 points and 4.9 rebounds in 21.9 minutes per game. He also shot 38.9 percent from three on a career-high 3.7 attempts per game.

The Raptors signed Mamukelashvili to a two-year, $5.3 million contract with a second-year player option last offseason, so there's no guarantee he even becomes a free agent. The Raptors can begin to legally negotiate with him one day after the NBA Finals end, which is well before other teams can.

But if Mamu does hit the open market, teams could do far worse than a just-turned-27 backup center fresh off a career year.

Keon Ellis, Cleveland Cavaliers SG

Let's break up the run on centers with Keon Ellis, who was reportedly one of the most hotly pursued names at this year's trade deadline.

Sam Amick of The Athletic said "approximately 10 teams" tried to acquire Ellis before the Sacramento Kings traded him to the Cavaliers in a package for De'Andre Hunter. Marc Stein of The Stein Line originally reported the Kings were "believed to be seeking a first-round pick given the widespread interest," but that never materialized.

Ellis averaged 8.3 points, 2.8 rebounds and 1.6 assists in only 24.8 minutes per game with the Cavaliers after the trade deadline, but he faded out of their rotation early in the playoffs. Given the apron issues that the Cavs will be facing if/when they re-sign Harden, it's unclear whether they have the budget to re-sign Ellis as well.

The Cavaliers' loss could be another team's gain. Ellis is a career 40.7 percent shooter from deep and is a plus defender as well. He's small for a shooting guard at 6'4" and 175 pounds, but the 26-year-old otherwise projects as at least a rotation player off the bench.

After his disappearance from the Kings' rotation early in the season and the Cavs' rotation in the playoffs, Ellis might struggle to muster offers much higher than a minimum contract. Anything under $10 million per year for him could wind up being a major steal.

Marvin Bagley III, Dallas Mavericks PF

Much like former Dallas Mavericks general manager Nico Harrison, Marvin Bagley III will always be tied to Luka Dončić in some capacity. Unlike Harrison, that's through no fault of Bagley's own.

The Sacramento Kings took Bagley with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2018 NBA draft, one pick ahead of Dončić. The latter quickly asserted himself as a legitimate MVP candidate, while the former had his production stagnate in Sacramento across his three-plus seasons with the Kings.

Bagley has since bounced around between the Detroit Pistons, Washington Wizards, Memphis Grizzlies, Washington Wizards again and Dallas Mavericks over the past four seasons. This past season, he put up 10.5 points and 6.1 rebounds in only 20.0 minutes per game between his time with the Wizards and Mavericks.

Bagley settled for a one-year, $3.1 million minimum contract with the Wizards last offseason after finishing out his previous three-year, $37.5 million deal. He's far more likely to earn closer to the minimum than he is to earn an eight-figure annual salary moving forward, but he can be valuable bench depth for a team, particularly on a min deal.

Bagley told Dwain Price of the Mavericks' team website that he hoped to bypass free agency entirely and re-sign with the Mavs. But he added, "I think you never know what can happen. Free agency in the NBA, there's a lot of different things that could go on."

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