It's finally happened -- or rather, is happening. No, LeBron James has not retired yet, but 2026 marks his first year as a truly declined version of the player he was at his peak. Accordingly, the talk around James' inevitable retirement has never been so loud as he approaches the halfway point of his 23rd NBA season. But even before his retirement, many are speculating about his future with the Los Angeles Lakers.
Most recently, ESPN's Brian Windhorst voiced the uncomfortable truth about James' status in the Lakers' hierarchy on an episode of his show Get Up:
"...if he's going to play for another season, then how much money is he willing to play for? Because the Lakers almost certainly are going to ask him to take a pay cut, potentially a significant one...And if he wants to go somewhere else, Cleveland is there. There are several different ways to get him."
James is still a near-triple-double threat every night and can still turn back the clock, but he's not quite as above the rim or as lightning fast as he was at 35 (which is crazy). This gradual fall down from legendary status to mere greatness is only emphasized by his teammates Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves. The former is an all-time legend in his prime and the latter is experiencing a meteoric rise to the top of the NBA. And if the picture wasn't already clear enough, 2026 will be LeBron's first season without an All-Star starter nod since his rookie campaign.
So let's actually break it down: If James does come back for a 24th season, where is it most likely to be? As an unrestricted free agent going into 2026-27, what would each (realistic) contract look like?
Los Angeles Lakers
Here's the thing with Los Angeles: their active roster on the books for 2026-27 has a surprisingly low cap hit. The only big fish they have on the hook is Doncic's yearly salary of just under $50 million for the year, leaving anywhere from $47 million to $38 million to play with.
However, after the season he's had, don't be surprised if Austin Reaves declines his 2026-27 player option and attempts to demand an extension that would cause a cap hit of at least $40 million to $35 million. At that point, Windhorsts' prediction for a significant cut into James' paycheck becomes painfully real. That's not a lot of space to keep James on for anything significantly over $30 million himself. And who knows, James might be able to make it work, especially if the flexibility means he can ring chase more freely.
And if we're looking at the next-most popularly projected location for LeBrons' final days in the NBA, the cap situation only gets worse.
Cleveland Cavaliers
If you think LA's cap situation is bad, Cleveland has over $220 million on the books for 2026-27, comfortably above the NBA's dreaded "second apron."
What does that mean for LeBron James? Well, Forbes' Bryan Toporek breaks it down pretty well. Long story short, unless the Cavaliers do something drastic to shed salary before the 2026 trade deadline, their only shot to land James is by signing him to the veteran's minimum, or just over $3 million for a single year.
One way for Cleveland to improve their outlook is to commit to a sign-and-trade with Los Angeles. Popularly, such a potential deal would include Darius Garland -- a steep price to pay for any homecoming. Should James join Cleveland, it would either be at a substantially more drastic pay cut than the Lakers would require and/or a roster that looks quite different from the Cavaliers' 2025-26 squad.
Pay attention to what Cleveland does at the trade deadline. That will be the big hint as to where they're leaning on the LeBron front.
Anywhere else
The sad truth about LeBron James at this point in his career is that he is an uncomfortable name for teams to sign. He is still a 25/5/5 player in his sleep, the same way that Kevin Durant and James Harden can still put up big numbers for winning teams. But there are few teams in the league that can both match his timeline while also being able to afford his services at the near-max level that they fairly demand.
Take in two other popular locations for James to potentially consider going into 2026-27: The Warriors and Mavericks.
Golden State is slowly turning into the elite NBA player's retirement home. If James joins the core of Steph Curry, Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler, they would be going all in on a single championship run before everything falls apart in t-minus two seasons. Then again, a team-up between LeBron and Steph has been what every NBA fan has ever wanted since 2020, regardless of how it would come.
On the other hand, James could potentially rejoin two of his former teammates in Dallas while also mentoring the NBA's next great big point forward in Cooper Flagg. Unfortunately, if he wanted to join both Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving, Dallas' cap situation would only be a little bit better than Cleveland's.
The point is, despite all of the speculation surrounding LeBron James' future in the NBA, there aren't too many futures that look much different from his time in Los Angeles going forward. Don't be surprised if James makes it easy and just decides to take the pay cut to be able to join the rising and mid-prime stars that he's already gotten used to.
That is, if he doesn't retire first.