Giannis Antetokounmpo is a Milwaukee Buck.
He’s staying.
For now.
Probably.
Everything seems in flux with the former MVP and Finals MVP, one of the five best players in the league, entering his late prime. After a summer when ESPN consistently reported uncertainty about Giannis’ future with the Bucks and the Bucks consistently and passive aggressively refuted that narrative, media day and preseason have cleared it up. Kind of.
Giannis said he was in Milwaukee for now and he’s focused on being a Buck for now. But that “for now” stuff means this feels still not totally locked up, and then ESPN reported that the New York Knicks and Bucks had discussions about a trade after Giannis expressed the Knicks as a team he would have interest in.
But ESPN also reported last week that Giannis and his management are surveying teams that could be in position to trade for him midseason.
So let’s get in the lab and cook up some reasonable ideas.
(NOTE: You will have issues with these, and if you’re a Bucks fan, you’ll have issues with all of them. It is impossible to get good return on a player of Giannis’ caliber and every team thinks their guys are more valuable than the market and the market always thinks those players are way worse. But these are fun ideas to consider.)
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The Lakers new super combo and LeBron's final chapter
Bucks trade:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo
- Kyle Kuzma
Lakers trade:
- LeBron James
- Austin Reaves
- two unprotected first-round picks
Let’s talk about the Bucks’ side first. LeBron is not staying in Milwaukee, obviously. A buyout is agreed upon for $1, a symbolic gesture. LeBron can then sign with the Cavaliers, Knicks, Rockets, Warriors, whatever he wants.
LeBron was clearly unhappy with how the Lakers basically put him to pasture this summer and moved on from him. That’s evident from all sorts of angles. This allows him to be traded for a player of his caliber, finish his career where he wants, and set up the Lakers for the future, keeping his legacy with LA intact.
The Bucks get Reaves who they are probably going to overpay this summer to try and stay competitive. If they want to start over? You let Reaves walk, and you clean your books instantly. They can start completely over with that kind of flexibility. If they like Reaves and want to build with him, best of luck.
They also move off Kyle Kuzma here, which is a huge win. The two first round picks are basically all LA can give up.
No, this is not enough for Giannis. No, it does not set them up for the future. But it sends Giannis where he would want to go and gets back a red-chip prospect and some picks.
For the Lakers, they allow LeBron to end his career on his terms and secure Giannis next to Luka. There is no price too high for this, and if they had more picks available to trade, they would deal them.
Giving up Reaves is obviously the toughest part here; the Lakers love him. But Reaves is going to demand huge money this summer, and they can’t really afford to commit that kind of money to a player who doesn’t augment Luka Dončić. (He is not a pick-and-roll big or a 3-and-D spot-up weapon.) You want a good return for Reaves? How about Giannis?
Even taking Kuzma is different for them. Kuzma very clearly got used to being a Laker and getting to play in LA. Players think of themselves as being of that caliber of celebrity, and being removed from it impacts their performance. I’m not saying that’s an admirable or even understandable quality, but it’s a real thing. I wouldn’t be surprised if Kuzma looked better immediately upon landing on California soil.
The big winner in this trade? The NBA, that gets Giannis and Luka as the new Kareem-Magic/Kobe-Shaq combo in LA. That should fix the ratings.
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Miami pushes all in
Bucks trade
- Giannis Antetokounmpo
- Kevin Porter Jr.
Heat trade:
- Tyler Herro
- Terry Rozier
- Nikola Jovic
- Kel’El Ware
- Two first-round picks
- Three second-round picks
If you are asking, “Why does Miami have to give up all that for Giannis when the Lakers don’t?” the answer is that they have more to trade. The Lakers don’t have blue or red-chip prospects to deal. The Heat do.
Some of this is also about fit. With Giannis, you don’t need as many bigs with Ware. Ware has also frustrated the team with his approach in preseason; he may not be a Heat culture fit.
Jovic is valuable, but his value diminishes with Giannis there. And you avoid paying Herro a big extension. You re-sign Norman Powell on a big extension and try to win now with Giannis-Bam-Powell.
For the Bucks, Rozier is an expiring, he never sees the floor and isn’t asked to report.
Herro proved last year he can be the best player on a playoff time and still has a lot of runway. If nothing else, he can be a good piece to flip for a team looking to make a leap, even if you have to commit to an extension.
You nab a really talented starting-caliber center just starting his career, and a versatile forward in Jovic. That’s going to be the one that Miami will try to hold its ground on. But at some point, they have to give it up if they want a player like Giannis.
The Celtics pivot dramatically
Bucks trade:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo
- Myles Turner
- Bobby Portis
Celtics trade:
- Jaylen Brown
- Anfernee Simons
- Sam Hauser
- Xavier Tillman
- Two first-round picks
Obviously, Jaylen Brown is the best player in any of these packages that the Bucks can get back. A good-to-great player, in his prime, on a long-term contract. It would be painful for the Celtics to make this trade, to the point where it’s unlikely they do because of how much they value him.
But Boston gets to instantly reorganize their future. It’s now Tatum coming back from the Achilles with Derrick White and Giannis. That’s your core for the next four years. The Bucks get their center position shored up with Turner, shifting from wings to bigs while still keeping the ability to play four-out.
Maybe the Celtics don’t get to take as many 3s as Joe Mazzulla wants, but he’ll live after getting Giannis.
Giannis and Tatum aren’t a natural fit, but they can both pull so much gravitational help to open up shooters, and are so talented, you live with it. The Celtics instantly transition to an elite defensive team.
Portis likely gets moved for cap relief and shooting in another deal within six months.
For the Bucks, you have a guy. Maybe you move him in a year if you realize you have to re-start, but you can move him for a lot with better leverage than they have with Giannis. Simons is tricky; if you do this deal, you want to do it before the deadline so you can move him again. Simons and Kevin Porter Jr. together sounds like a nightmare.
Hauser is a really good value contract at $10 million per year for a quality shooter. That’s a good long-term trade chip.
The Spurs actually give Milwaukee a good deal
Bucks trade:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo
Spurs trade:
- Devin Vassell
- Stephon Castle
- Harrison Barnes
- Three firsts and two swaps (Hawks this year, Kings in 2031)
Milwaukee actually gets good value here, which seems impossible for a Giannis trade. Barens is an expiring $19 million contract, so you reset your books instantly.
Castle won Rookie of the Year last season, but now is behind both De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper in the rotation. They help Castle land somewhere he knows he’s going to play and be built around.
Vassell is a good wing they can move later.
The pick grab bag here is excellent because the Spurs have so many they can give while keeping the powder dry.
San Antonio puts Giannis Antetokounmpo next to Victor Wembanyama for the next half-decade. Best of luck to the rest of you.
Warriors shock the world
Bucks trade:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo
Warriors trade:
- Draymond Green
- Moses Moody
- Buddy Hield
- Brandin Podziemski
- Two first round picks
Obviously, Draymond is the third rail here. Steph Curry might never approve it. But also, if you’re the Warriors, and you realize how much further your window is extended … do you do it anyway?
You fundamentally reshape your entire future instead of trying to sneak out one more title. It buys you time to reconfigure and extend your success and avoid a post-Steph rebuild.
You can’t justify moving one of your franchise icons for almost any player. Giannis is not just any player.
For the Bucks, you don’t keep Green. You try and flip him immediately to a contender, somewhere he wants to play. You want to do this before he plays for you because the first time that he plays without Steph Curry in a new environment for the first time in his career on a team he never wanted to be on, his value is going to plummet.
(You should honestly call the Lakers and see what they’ll give you, even if they don’t want to give LeBron another Klutch buddy.)
You get Moses Moody and Brandin Podziemski as young building pieces, and Giannis starts to age out when the Warriors’ 2030 and 2032 picks are conveyed. You flip Buddy Hield for whatever.