And just like that, another NBA Draft has come and gone. For the next few months, the league's newest crop of rookies are on top of the world after joining the rarest company in basketball. For now, before the competition, intense scrutiny, and injury (but cross your fingers that doesn't happen), they're able to bask in the glow of their success with no pressure, at least for a little bit.
But not from us, nor any sports fan. Because it's never too late to nerd out and fawn over the shiniest new names in the NBA. We're calling our shot on a way-too-early top five ranking for the 2025 Rookie Class.
1. Cooper Flagg
No surprises here. Cooper Flagg wasn't just the consensus #1 pick in the draft -- he was the consensus #1 by a long shot. A hyper athletic, lanky, hybrid forward with vision and touch on top of enough intensity to invite comps to Kevin Garnett? That would make Flagg a frontrunner for the award in most classes.
But if we know anything, the ROTY race isn't just decided on talent alone. Fit matters, and unlike other award races, your team doesn't necessarily need to succeed for you to get the nod (i.e.: the 2004 Cavs). In fact, for rookies that are as ready to go as Flagg is, the worse the team, the bigger their numbers and the better their chances at the award.
And even with two All-Stars and future HOF'ers, the Dallas Mavericks are in that bucket. Namely, because those two legends are walking insurance risks. Kyrie Irving is already projected to be out with a torn ACL until at least January of 2026, according to Yahoo Sports' Ishaan Bhattacharya, and it wouldn't be surprising for the Mavs to wait until the All-Star break to let him back onto the court if their record is bad enough. Meanwhile, Anthony Davis is still coming off of a fresh adductor strain, and his legs have the architectural integrity of pretzel sticks. Dallas' scoring and playmaking will be coming from somewhere, and there's nowhere better for Flagg to be forged in fire while still erupting for a historic rookie season numbers-wise.
This award is Flagg's to lose.
2. Tre Johnson
Speaking of the perfect mix of talent and situation, you can copy and paste 90% of Flagg's entry into Tre Johnson's.
Tre Johnson, in a phrase, gets buckets. And if there's one thing that stands out in NBA award races, it's scoring -- especially in the ROTY race. He averaged 19.1PPG during his lone season at Texas (first among all freshmen), and his 6'5-6 stature makes him a dead clone of Devin Booker with a little more in-between game.
And best of all for his chances: the Wizards are garbage. They failed to crack 20 wins in 2025, and probably aren't projected for much more in the immediate future. Perfect for a talented rookie to shine. They also love Johnson: GM Will Dawkins recently appeared on the Sports Junkie Podcast to voice how lucky Washington was to still have him on the board at pick #6. Not to mention that they dealt Jordan Poole for a more mentor-like figure for Tre in CJ McCollum. Between CJ and Khris Middleton, Tre Johnson has the perfect mix of veterans who will be able to take him under their wing, get out of his way if needed, and take pressure off of him if defenses get too hot.
3. Dylan Harper
The rich get richer, I guess.
After Cooper Flagg, no one truly knew what the Spurs were going to do with the second pick. Consensus didn't just have Flagg up in the rafters, but Harper as well right there with him right before a decent drop-off in guaranteed NBA success for the rest of the 2025 class. However, if you're San Antonio, what are you to do? De'Aaron Fox has just arrived, Chris Paul is already mentoring reigning Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle at the point guard, even Devin Vassell is getting major minutes. At first glance, the Spurs' backcourt is crowded enough without another lead guard, especially one so scoring-focused and ball-dominant. One would imagine that the Spurs, draft wizards that they are, would have been itching to trade down for more assets. Maybe make a deal with Brooklyn and swing on a Twin Towers-esque project with Wemby and Maluach, or a blockbuster trade for a superstar from a struggling team.
And yet.
If San Antonio's scout team in all their wisdom believes in the future of Dylan Harper enough to sit and take him, we could have a special backcourt in store. And the fit is better than one would think on the surface, especially since Fox could be on the outs with an expiring contract. Slide Harper over to the 2 (probably his most natural position) and let him wreak havoc on defenses keyed on Wemby and Castle. Even if he starts the season as the first man of the bench, Dylan Harper comes out of the box as an absolute microwave. His scoring is going to pop in San Antonio.
4. Nikola Topic
Obligatory Blake Griffin ROY entry here.
Nikola Topic won't be jumping over Kia's anytime soon, but there's a legitimate non-zero percent chance he could be the next sophomore Rookie of the Year. A torn ACL made him the youngest NBA Champion to never play a regular season minute, and he was still a lottery pick despite it. In fact, an old Bleacher Report scouting report by Jonathan Wasserman projected Topic's draft ceiling to go as high as the top five in 2024 if things fell the right way.
As for what OKC is getting from Topic once he enters back into the fold, they're grabbing a young point guard with a championship pedigree, and has already logged minutes for the second-best national team in the world. Topic's professional resume was already undeniable before both going to the NBA and being legally allowed to drink alcohol in America, and his scouting report confirms it. Getting a chance to basically red shirt and learn how an NBA team operates under the wing of the reigning champs (and reigning 'Triple Crown' winner SGA) gives Topic a huge leg up in the ROTY race over truer rookies. And for someone who's already as good a playmaker as Topic is, OKC's second unit is going to be a nightmare.
5. Ace Bailey
Begrudging as it is, Ace Bailey deserves a top five spot in these early rookie rankings.
For Bailey to have made as many waves as he did in his pre-draft process and still be heavily considered as a top-3 pick says mountains about his talents. He has positively historical upside, and literally had to decline workouts and meetings with teams to slide just two spots down from most analysts' big boards. And without even meeting him, Utah still picked Bailey at number five. And with the moves that they made after he touched down in Salt Lake, Bailey might actually have the best shot at taking down Flagg in the ROTY race.
Because not only will Utah likely be awful this coming season, they have also cleared the runway for Bailey's green light. Jordan Clarkson has been bought out. Collin Sexton has been traded to the Hornets. Two of Utah's five highest sources for points, and their two highest usage rates period are out the window. Arguably the greatest scoring talent in the 2025 rookie class, and one of the greatest we've seen in years slots neatly, not just into a starting role, but a primary one with a team that's bound for the basement. Think about Dylan Harper's green light projection with the Spurs, but on a team who's prioritizing development over scrambling for the last play-in spot (if they're smart).
Now, Bailey's handle is relatively suspect, and his pre-draft process raised plenty of eyebrows around the league as to whether his attitude would keep him away from realizing his full potential. But for those two issues, Bailey could have been sitting at the top of these rankings, and could have even been drafted first over all. And according to Ryan Miller of KSL.com, Bailey arrived in Utah invigorated, and Jazz staff are just as excited to have him.
And if that translates to a faster development process than we anticipated, these rankings could look real stupid by next year.