Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The series between two Western Conference teams stands tied after two games, but De'Aaron Fox has yet to contribute.
- Spurs' ball security issues and struggles without their star big man have been central to the recent defeat.
- The potential return of Fox could dramatically alter the offensive flow and clutch performance for the rest of the series.
Through two games, the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder are tied at one game a piece. However, the Spurs have yet to get any contributions from their second-leading scorer, De'Aaron Fox (averaging 18.6 points per game), who has missed both games nursing a mysterious right ankle alignment.
Fox did go through pregame warmups before ultimately being ruled out for Game 2. So, that tells us that he's at least close to coming back. But if Fox does return to the lineup, will it seriously shift the odds in the Spurs' favor?
Fox could be the deciding factor
Outside of Dylan Harper (who has been playing out of his mind, by the way) being unable to complete Game 2, the two main reasons the Spurs lost to the Thunder was their inability to hold onto the ball and their lack of success when Victor Wembanyama was off the floor.
The Spurs coughed the ball up 21 times in Game 2. Meanwhile, the Thunder only turned it over nine times. This is the second straight game that the Spurs have tallied 21 turnovers, and Stephon Castle is under so much stress that he is breaking all the wrong kinds of records.
Stephon Castle now has the most turnovers over any 2-game stretch in NBA postseason history.
— Legion Hoops (@LegionHoops) May 21, 2026
19 turnovers (!!!) 😳 pic.twitter.com/V2Wfr0kfqK
Among his many strengths, Fox is great at suppressing turnovers. This season, the Spurs' turnover rate decreases by nearly three percent when Fox is on the floor compared to when he is on the bench, which ranks in the 98th percentile leaguewide (per Cleaning the Glass). Even when he was with the Sacramento Kings, Fox had this sort of footprint, ranking in the 93rd percentile in this category in 2023 and 95th percentile in 2024.
Despite losing by nine, the Spurs outscored the Thunder by one point in the 37 minutes Wembanyama was on the floor. That means that they were outscored by 10 points in the 11 minutes that Wembanyama was getting a breather.
Having Fox back gives head coach Mitch Johnson and his staff the opportunity to stagger the two so that Fox can buoy lineups without Wembanyama and avoid the Spurs losing games simply because the prodigious big man couldn't play all 48 minutes.
During the regular season, the team's net rating was stronger when Wembanyama was playing without Fox, or when the two were playing together. But when Fox was the lone star on the floor, the Spurs still had a passable net rating of +2.5 in 1,087 minutes (per PBP Stats).
Even in Game 1 (the Spurs only win of the series thus far), San Antonio almost gave the game away because of their lack of experienced ball handling and shot creation to make life easier on Wembanyama. Harper and Castle performed admirably, but they were missing Fox's steadiness and veteran guile. Don't forget, Fox won the Clutch Player of the Year in 2023, receiving 91 of 100 first place votes. He relishes in high-stress moments that we are sure to see a handful of times through the rest of this series.
There is no question that Fox changes the calculus for the Spurs. Now, they just have to hope he comes back before it is too late.
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