It appears increasingly likely that Giannis Antetokounmpo won't be leaving the Milwaukee Bucks this offseason after all. ESPN's Brian Windhorst and Tim Bontemps recently reported that "as things stand today, the expectation is that Antetokounmpo will start next season as a Buck," although they did note that "there's still a lot of road to be walked this offseason, and it's hard to know exactly how everything will shake out."
In late May, longtime NBA insider Marc Stein reported that the Bucks planned to sell the Greek Freak on a "so-called gap year that enables them to retool the team while allowing him to maintain his one-team affiliation." Windhorst and Bontemps added that Bucks head coach Doc Rivers and general manager Jon Horst "have presented plans to keep the core of the team intact around Antetokounmpo, with a goal of competing for a top-six playoffs spot and with a hope Damian Lillard could return from his Achilles recovery before the end of next season."
The Bucks may be taking inspiration from the Golden State Warriors, who had their own gap year in 2019-20 after Kevin Durant left to sign with the Brooklyn Nets in free agency. They wound up landing the No. 2 overall pick in 2020, traded D'Angelo Russell for Andrew Wiggins and the pick that later became Jonathan Kuminga, and eventually went on to win another championship in 2021-22.
Could the Bucks follow in the Warriors' footsteps? Or are they selling the Greek Freak on false hope? While the Eastern Conference suddenly appears wide-open with Boston Celtics star forward Jayson Tatum out with a torn Achilles, the Bucks don't have a clear path back to the top.
Gap year, or no way out for the Bucks and Giannis?
Antetokounmpo alone might be enough to keep the Bucks afloat during the regular season, even in Lillard's absence. He's fresh off his third straight season with at least 30 points, 11 rebounds and five assists per game, making him the only player in league history ever to average that stat line more than twice. However, Lillard figures to miss most or all of next season with the Achilles tear that he suffered against the Indiana Pacers in the first round of this year's playoffs, which effectively closes the door on the Bucks' championship chances in 2025-26.
Even if Antetokounmpo does agree to stay in Milwaukee, the Bucks are facing a crossroads this offseason. They already flipped longtime forward Khris Middleton at the February trade deadline for Kyle Kuzma, who underwhelmed in the playoffs and is under contract for the next two seasons. Meanwhile, starting center Brook Lopez is set to become an unrestricted free agent this offseason, while Bobby Portis ($13.4 million) and Kevin Porter Jr. ($2.5 million) could join him if they decline their respective player options.
Between Antetokounmpo, Lillard and Kuzma alone, the Bucks already have nearly $130.7 million on their books for next season. Tyler Smith ($1.955 million) is their only other player under guaranteed contract for now, although Pat Connaughton is a virtual lock to pick up his $9.4 million player option as well. Adding those two would bring the Bucks up to $142 million in salary heading into free agency, and that's before considering their team options on A.J. Green ($2.3 million), Andre Jackson Jr. ($2.2 million) and/or Chris Livingston ($2.2 million).
The 2025-26 salary cap is projected to be $154.6 million, so the Bucks aren't going to have cap space this summer. If anything, they need to be mindful of the luxury-tax threshold ($187.9 million), the first apron ($195.9 million) and the second apron ($207.8 million). Given the trade and free-agent restrictions imposed on teams that cross the second apron, the Bucks seem highly unlikely to clear that threshold in a gap year.
The question is whether they'll be able to retain Portis and Lopez and leave themselves enough space under the first apron to have access to the $14.1 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception and the $5.1 million bi-annual exception. Using either of those would hard-cap them at the first apron. If they cross the first apron but stay under the second apron, they'll instead have the $5.7 million taxpayer MLE, but they'll lose access to the bi-annual exception.
The Bucks signed one of the biggest steals of free agency last summer when they landed Gary Trent Jr. on a one-year, minimum contract deal. However, they might need to spend one of those exceptions to re-sign him. They only have non-Bird rights on him, which means they can't offer him more than 120 percent of a veteran-minimum salary unless they sign him with an exception.
With Lillard likely to miss most or all of next season, the Bucks might be an enticing landing spot for free-agent point guards, as they could offer a larger role than other teams. That could help them drive their market value back up, much like Trent did this past season. However, how many players will be interested in joining the Bucks without assurance that Antetokounmpo will be sticking around long-term?
The Bucks will also have to find players who are fine with punting on a championship chance next season. They aren't likely to be a marquee landing spot for ring-chasers. But their bigger issue might be their relative dearth of young, high-upside players.
The jury is still out on whether Green, Jackson, Livingston or Smith are long-term keepers. The Bucks haven't had a clear home run in the draft since landing Donte DiVincenzo with the No. 17 overall pick in 2018. It might not be easy for them to turn that around anytime soon, either.
The Bucks already owe their fully unprotected 2025, 2027 and 2029 first-round picks to other teams, along with first-round swap rights in 2026 and 2028. They've also traded away all of their own second-round picks through 2030. They do have the No. 47 pick in the 2025 draft (via Detroit), but they otherwise have only two first-round picks and zero second-round picks from now until 2030.
So, to recap: The Bucks have limited financial flexibility this offseason, virtually no draft capital moving forward and few (if any) young players who could be long-term keepers. They might be able to stay afloat in the East just through Giannis' sheer force of will, at least during the regular season, but they're flying dead stick in the playoffs. It might not get much better for them in 2026-27, either.
Once Lillard returns, he'll be heading into his age-36 season fresh off an Achilles tear. Even prior to his injury, he was a clear target defensively. It's more likely than not that he'll be worse on both ends of the floor upon his return. Kevin Durant successfully overcame an Achilles tear, but he's an outlier rather than the example of what to expect. Kobe Bryant, who tore his Achilles during his age-34 campaign, and Klay Thompson, who tore his ahead of his age-30 season, are likely closer facsimiles.
Since his return four years ago, Thompson has still knocked down 39.6 percent of his three-point attempts. However, he shot at least 46.0 percent from the field in each of his five seasons prior to his ACL and Achilles tears. He has yet to shoot better than 44 percent overall in any of the four years since. Lillard might still be a lethal threat from long distance, but the Achilles injury and Father Time could hamper his efficiency around the basket moving forward.
Perhaps the Bucks will look to package Lillard next offseason, when he's on a $58.5 million expiring contract, along with their remaining draft picks to find Antetokounmpo a new co-star. That wouldn't address their depth issues, though. If anything, trading their few remaining picks might only exacerbate it, particularly if they include their 2026 first-rounder.
To be clear, Antetokounmpo has yet to officially demand a trade. In fact, he told a pair of Greek reporters in February that he didn't think he would ever do so and that the Bucks would have to "kick me out." However, he has also repeatedly made it clear that winning another championship takes priority over anything else — including his loyalty to Milwaukee.
"At the end of the day, being a winner, it’s over that goal," he told Tania Ganuli of the New York Times in 2023. "Winning a championship comes first. I don’t want to be 20 years on the same team and don’t win another championship."
He doubled down on that stance during a recent appearance on the Thanalysis Show podcast with his brother, Thanasis Antetokounmpo.
"Me not having a second championship — I look back at my career and everybody can say, 'Oh, incredible career, active Hall of Famer, first ballot, whatever.' But me, my personal goal, if I am not able to help my team win a second ring, I'm letting down myself," Antetokounmpo said.
Even if Antetokounmpo did try to force his way out of Milwaukee this offseason, there's no guarantee that he'd win a championship elsewhere. The Bucks would likely demand so much in return for him that they'd severely deplete whichever team traded for him. However, their gap-year plan might only be staving off the inevitable.
Unless the Bucks somehow find multiple young, high-upside contributors within the next year, they'll still be stuck with limited financial flexibility and draft capital to improve the supporting cast around Antetokounmpo. Realistically, Antetokounmpo's championship window in Milwaukee is likely closed not just in 2025-26, but beyond that as well.
The Bucks can only hope that his loyalty and desire to stay in one city for his entire career outweighs his hunger for another championship.