Since the moment this 2025 Draft Class started to take form, Cooper Flagg has always been the apple in everyone's eyes. He is the bonafide superstar talent that everyone was desperately trying to tank for. Even now, it is widely believed that he has the highest ceiling of any player from this class.
However, the Rookie of the Year award isn't about the player who demonstrated the highest ceiling in Year One. It is about recognizing the freshman who was the best player during their inaugural season. That is why Kon Knueppel should easily win the award over Flagg.
Kon Knueppel already impacts winning
At the end of the day, what is the goal of everything we do in the NBA? To win the championship. So, ipso facto, the best players should be the ones who have the greatest impact on winning.
It isn't wise to look at impact metrics when assessing rookies because they hardly ever are good enough to have a positive impact in that category. Knueppel is the rare exception to the rule. This season, the Charlotte Hornets are a plus-4.9 per 100 possessions with Knueppel on the floor (77th percentile, per Cleaning the Glass). They are also plus-6.4 per 100 points better with him on the floor than with him on the bench -- a swing that places in the 82nd percentile.
Flagg's impact metrics (while normal for a rookie) are not nearly as impressive. The Dallas Mavericks net rating with Flagg on the floor is in just the 56th percentile. Meanwhile, they are performing five points per 100 better with him on the bench (some of this could be poor opponent shooting luck, though).
We don't even need to dig this deep into the analytics. Knueppel is arguably the second-best player on a team that has won 23 of their last 29 games, while Flagg has been a cog in the Mavericks' Tankathon. No matter how you slice it, Knueppel has had the greater positive impact on winning.
Knueppel has the better numbers?!
The people who have been advocating for Flagg over Knueppel usually point to their counting stats. On the season, Flagg is averaging more points, assists, rebounds, steals and blocks per game than Knueppel.
However, the thing that people often miss about box score measures is that someone has to get them. It's not like without Flagg the Mavericks would average 20.4 fewer points or 6.6 fewer rebounds per game. Someone else would have the opportunity to attempt those shots and nab those loose balls.
When you just compare box score stats, you are missing out on the context behind them. Flagg has had all the opportunity in the world to explore the studio space and put up raw numbers on a bad team (aka empty calorie stats). On the flip side, Kneuppel is playing within the system of a team that is trying to win as many games as possible.
Kon Knueppel 26-11-8 (9/14 FG), +15 pic.twitter.com/FhyrYYGsnY
— Brett Usher (@UsherNBA) March 27, 2026
Funny enough, when you adjust for playing time (Flagg plays over two minutes more per game than Knueppel), Knueppel is actually scoring 0.7 more points per 75 possessions than Flagg (per Dunks & Threes). He is also doing it on much higher efficiency, as his true shooting percentage (65.6 percent, 92nd percentile) is 10.7 percentage points higher than Flagg's (54.9 percent, 31st percentile).
Like I said in the introduction, if I had to wager money, Flagg will go down as the best player from this group. But ROY isn't about the future. It's about what happened this year. And from where I'm standing, Knueppel is the top dog.