The Philadelphia 76ers are riding high. After a 19-point comeback and overtime win over the Washington Wizards, they're now 4-0 with the best offense in the NBA. Tyrese Maxey is leading the league in scoring and playing his way into the MVP race. Quentin Grimes has picked up right where he left off after his breakout season last year, and rookie VJ Edgecombe has been beyond impressive.
But despite the winning and good vibes, it's time for the 76ers to face a hard truth about their present and future.
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Joel Embiid is not the future — or present — of the 76ers
On paper, Embiid looks pretty productive, especially considering it was a surprise that he was even ready to play on opening night after missing most of last season with knee issues. He's on a minutes restriction, only playing 21.0 minutes per game, but has played in three of the 76ers' four wins so far and is averaging 28.0 points, 8.6 rebounds and 6.3 assists per 36 minutes.
He had his best game of the season in the win against Washington, putting up 25 points, 7 rebounds and 5 assists. But those box score numbers obscure just how inert he looks compared to his MVP peak in 2023, and just how poorly he fits the rest of this roster in his current state.
Embiid had a couple of assists to start the fourth quarter, but missed both of his shots and turned the ball over once. He left the game with 7:17 remaining and the 76ers down by nine, replaced by Adem Bona, and didn't see the court again. Philly outscored Washington 30-16 the rest of the way with him on the bench.
The 76ers have played 66 minutes with Maxey, Edgecombe and Grimes together so far this season, outscoring opponents by 30.2 points per 100 possessions. Add Kelly Oubre Jr. and you get an almost unbelievable plus-66.5 per 100 possessions in 35 minutes. Put Embiid as the fourth in place of Oubre, and that margin craters to minus-8.6 points per 100 possessions.
The 76ers have outscored opponents by 31 points in the 134 minutes Embiid has been on the bench and been outscored by nine points in the 63 minutes he's been on the floor.
As Michael Pina pointed out for The Ringer, his lack of mobility is a huge issue right now at both ends of the floor.
"Right now, he’s a part-time player who isn’t able or willing to play defense more than a few feet away from the basket. On offense, he’s stationary. According to Sportradar, Embiid has popped 55 percent of the time after setting a ball screen this season. In 2023, that number was 27 percent. Look at his effort getting back in transition on this play."
Embiid is still a huge body and a deterrent at the rim, but he can't defend in space and is going to be a huge liability against any team that can put five shooters on the floor. Even at the height of his powers, giving him a ton of elbow touches to operate as a triple-threat would be a trade-off — clogging the middle of the floor and taking the ball out of the hands of the guards in exchange for elite half-court shot creation. But he's not that player right now, having attempted eight pull-up jumpers (missing all of them) to just 13 drives.
In theory, some of his mobility (and, by extension, aggressiveness) will return. But that assumes a normal trajectory of injury and recovery, and this is Joel Embiid we're talking about. Counting playoffs and regular season, he's played just 67 games in the three years since he won the MVP. His health ebbs and flows, but the baseline of availability and performance has been moving steadily downward for years. There's no reason to think that's suddenly going to change 12 seasons into one of the most infamously injury-riddled careers in NBA history.
He can probably help them win some games this year, and there may be nights where he looks like his old self. But — in Maxey, Edgecombe, Grimes and, eventually, Jared McCain — the 76ers have an incredibly talented young core that plays with speed, shooting, pressure and versatility. At his best, Embiid isn't a great fit for where this team is going, and that hypothetical best is already a distant memory.
Bona, a second-year, second-round pick from UCLA, has looked like a cleaner fit with his active shot-blocking and rim-running on offense. Veteran Andre Drummond can play the same role, and even small-ball lineups with Oubre playing up a position or randos like Jabari Walker or Dominick Barlow have been competitive. The 76ers probably don't want to count on any of those options to power a deep playoff run, but you can see the outlines of what an ideal, post-Embiid big man rotation looks like, at least in terms of skill set.
Embiid has two more years remaining on his deal, and then a player option. Moving him or 35-year-old Paul George, with two more years left on his own astronomical contract, is complicated and not likely to happen anytime soon. But at this point, neither player is part of the future for the 76ers, and it's increasingly clear that they don't matter much to the present either.
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Are the Miami Heat for real?
Sigh.
I don't know.
They have beaten likely playoff teams, New York and Memphis, by double-digits and are currently 3-1 with the second-best point differential in the NBA.
I didn't think they were for real in either of the two seasons that Jimmy Butler led them to the Finals. And while Butler is gone, those teams were also a collection of role players performing way over their heads, and this year's squad certainly checks that box.
Jamie Jaquez is averaging 18.8 points, 6.3 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game, shooting nearly 70 percent from the field. Davion Mitchell is absolutely working as a playmaker, even though his shooting is ice-cold and not enough of a threat to really stretch a defense. Andrew Wiggins is playing well. The supporting cast — Ware, Jović, Fontecchio, Larsson and Dru Smith — is a stupid 34-of-74 (46 percent) from beyond the arc. And Tyler Herro hasn't even played a game yet!
This is a formula we've seen work for the Heat in the past. The question is whether Herro, Norm Powell and Bam Adebayo can replicate any of that Butler magic — the ability to turn pure confidence and chutzpah into winning basketball plays of all kinds. Powell has given the Heat exactly what they needed, and Adebayo is doing some things we've never seen before, like hitting 39 percent from beyond the arc on nearly six attempts per game.
I don't think this team is good enough to win the East.
But I've been wrong about them before.