Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The 76ers face a critical juncture as they prepare for Game 5 against the Celtics, with their season hanging in the balance.
- Despite Joel Embiid's return from appendicitis and solid stats, the team struggled mightily with a significant deficit during his minutes in Game 4.
- The 76ers must confront the reality that Embiid's declining health and performance necessitate a strategic shift toward younger talents for long-term success.
On Sunday, Joel Embiid made his triumphant return to the court in front of the Philadelphia 76ers' home crowd at Xfinity Mobile Arena. The former MVP did not disappoint, tallying 26 points, 10 rebounds, 6 assists, one block, and one steal.
It was an impressive showing for Embiid, especially after he'd been sidelined for three weeks with appendicitis. The only problem ... the 76ers lost to the Boston Celtics by 32 points, they were a minus-25 in Embiid's minutes, and they are now just one game away from elimination.
The numbers may be similar, but this isn't the same Joel Embiid
This is the dichotomy of the modern day Embiid experience in a nutshell. One of the most tragic parts of the last three seasons is seeing just how much injuries have zapped Embiid of athleticism that made him one of the best two-way players in the sport. Since the start of the 2023-24 season, Embiid has only appeared in 96 of the 76ers' 246 regular season games (39 percent).
When he has played, Embiid is still putting up some gaudy counting stats. For instance, this season he's averaging 26.9 points per game on a 60.5 true shooting percent in 31.6 minutes per contest. This type of stat line can give the organization a false sense of hope. If we can just get him healthy, we still have a top-10 player in the league at the center spot.
The thing is, while his numbers may not be that far for off from his career averages (27.6 points per game on 61.3 true shooting percentage), the impact is not nearly as intense.
Estimated Plus-Minus (courtesy of Dunks & Threes) is one of the best publicly-available one number metrics out there because it blends box score numbers and on-off stats with tracking data to create a per-100 possession estimate of a player's impact. From 2020-24, Embiid's EPM was a plus-7 or higher. This season, he is at just a plus-4.3.
A big reason for his decline comes on the defensive end of the floor. After being in the 97th percentile or higher in each of those four seasons we cited above, Embiid is now only in the 77th percentile.
He also can't get to the rim the way he used to. After being in the 92nd percentile in rim frequency in 2023 (7.9 rim attempts per 75 possessions), Embiid is down to the 79th percentile this year (5.8 per 75). Keep in mind, Embiid is now 32 years old, and giant big men with a history of injuries don't usually improve their defense and rim attacking as they mature into their mid-30s.
And this, in a nutshell, is the Embiid conundrum. He puts up tantalizing numbers, but struggles to remain consistently healthy. Even when he is available, he isn't the same force that he once was, and this version of him will only continue to diminish as the years go on.
After this year, Embiid still has another three seasons left on his contract (the last one is a player option, which he will surely exercise). The 76ers can't let him go, and given the reasons we outlined above, no one is going to want to trade for his gargantuan contract.
But still, the 76ers have to find a way to mentally move on from the idea of building a winner around Embiid. As sad as it is to say, those days are simply over.
Can he be a contributor on a great team? Yes, in a supercharged Bill Walton on the Celtics capacity, but he can't be the leading man anymore. It is now time to hand the keys to the franchise over to Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe and hope that you can maneuver through Embiid's massive salary slot just enough to build a cohesive roster around them.
How can they do this? Well, that is a different subject for a different post. All we do know is that it is time to stop waiting for the old Embiid to rescue them.
More NBA news and analysis:
Add us as a preferred source on Google