The race for the bottom of the WNBA standings and a chance at the top odds in the 2026 WNBA Draft remains fierce.
Unlike the NBA, the WNBA uses two-year win percentage to determine the lottery odds. That means that despite having the worst record this year, the Connecticut Sun only have the fifth-best odds right now of earning the top pick. Not that it matters, though — of the current lottery teams, three, including Connecticut, have already traded their 2026 pick away.
Let's take a look at the current lottery odds for the teams outside the playoff picture.
What are the current 2026 WNBA lottery odds?
2-year record | 2-year win percentage | |
|---|---|---|
Los Angeles Sparks (traded to Seattle) | 14-45 | 23.7 |
Dallas Wings | 15-45 | 25.0 |
Chicago Sky (traded to Minnesota) | 18-39 | 31.6 |
Washington Mystics | 22-36 | 37.9 |
Connecticut Sun (traded to Chicago) | 30-28 | 51.7 |
The Dallas Wings are in the best position right now, despite being a half-game back of the best odds. Why's that? Because they control their own destiny. If Dallas just goes back to struggling instead of continuing to show improvement, the team can land the best shot at getting the No. 1 pick. More than likely, that means UCLA big Lauren Betts can join Dallas, giving the team a potential frontcourt star to pair with Paige Bueckers.
Meanwhile, Seattle looks to be in good shape to get value out of the Sparks pick. Back in 2024, the Sparks traded their 2026 first away from Kia Nurse and the No. 4 pick in the 2024 WNBA Draft. Nurse is already off elsewhere, but the Sparks got a solid player in Rickea Jackson out of the deal. Still, the Storm have to feel really good about this deal, because getting potentially the No. 1 pick in a strong upcoming draft and only losing out on Jackson is a win. Nothing against Jackson, who looks like someone who'll stick in the league long-term, but if Seattle gets the top pick and can either take Betts or use the pick in a trade to land another top player to help push the franchise over the edge in the title race, that's a huge win.
It'll be tough for any other team to break into the top odds. Chicago would need to lose five more games over the rest of the season than Los Angeles to jump past the Sparks to No. 1, and right now, both teams are playing close to the same level of basketball. Plus, Chicago doesn't even own that pick — it would just make the Lynx stronger. Chicago's lottery odds depend on Connecticut, which means they're pretty much locked into having the fifth-best odds.
Meanwhile, Washington has played its way out of having potentially the top odds, going 8-10 so far this year. The Mystics are too competitive to really have a chance to fall.
Outside of those teams, no one else could really be in the conversation here. Atlanta is the only other team with a two-year record under .500, but at 12-7 this season, it appears we can safely mark the Dream down as a 2025 playoff team. Golden State could theoretically drop, but the team has played .500 basketball so far and would need to start losing a lot of games in a hurry.