The Oklahoma City Thunder lost to the Milwaukee Bucks in the NBA Cup final last year, but they're the clear favorites to win this year's Cup heading into the knockout round. If they beat the Devin Booker-less Phoenix Suns on Wednesday, they'll get the winner of the Los Angeles Lakers-San Antonio Spurs game for a trip to the Cup final.
Since the Thunder are the Cup favorites, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the heavy favorite to be named NBA Cup MVP. The league's reigning MVP is a -125, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, while Lakers guard Luka Dončić is the next-closest option at +750.
The Thunder are only the third team in NBA history to start a season with a 23-1 record, so it's understandable why oddsmakers expect them to win the Cup and SGA to be named Cup MVP. But what if the Thunder lose? The Cup MVP field would be blown wide open.
With that in mind, let's check out some potential NBA Cup MVP dark horses heading into the knockout round.
Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs C (+3300)
Victor Wembanyama has been sidelined since mid-November with a calf strain, but he appears to be nearing his return. He was a full participant in practice on Sunday, and head coach Mitch Johnson told reporters Monday that Wembanyama will travel with the team to Los Angeles, which leaves open the possibility that he'll play. (Wemby is clearly a Cup Respecter.)
If Wembanyama does play Wednesday, his odds are way too low here. The Spurs have gone 8-3 in his absence, and both Dylan Harper (calf) and Stephon Castle (hip) recently made their return from injuries as well. Since De'Aaron Fox didn't make his season debut until after Harper got hurt, Wednesday could be the first time this year that the Spurs have all four of Wemby, Harper, Castle and Fox.
The Spurs are 4.5-point underdogs to the Lakers, who are tied with the Denver Nuggets for the second-best record in the Western Conference this season. Luka is going to get his, but the Spurs do have plenty of bodies to throw at him, Austin Reaves and LeBron James. Wemby is the great equalizer on defense, too.
Even if the Spurs do beat the Lakers on Wednesday, they'll likely be facing the Thunder on Saturday in the West semifinal. They have yet to play the Thunder this season, so that could be our first look at the rivalry that figures to define the rest of the decade in the West.
Norman Powell, Miami Heat SG (+1900)
The NBA Cup bracket may be breaking perfectly for the Miami Heat, who face the Franz Wagner-less Orlando Magic on Tuesday in the East quarterfinals. If they beat the Magic, they'll face either the New York Knicks or Toronto Raptors in the East semifinal.
The Knicks and Heat have already faced one another three times this season. Norman Powell dropped a season-high 38 points on 12-of-22 shooting in the second meeting and had 29 points, seven rebounds and three assists in the first.
Tyler Herro didn't play in any of those games, but Powell hasn't skipped a beat since he returned. He had a team-high 30 points in a blowout win over the Los Angeles Clippers last Monday and a team-high 28 points, four assists and three rebounds in their nail-biting loss to the Magic on Friday.
Even if the Heat do make it to the Cup Final, they could have a tough time toppling the Thunder. But Powell is a walking bucket, and the Heat's path to the NBA Cup final is fairly straightforward. From there, he'd just need to go on one more heater to secure the $530,000-plus payday.
Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks C (+2700)
Karl-Anthony Towns is questionable for Tuesday's game against the Raptors with left calf tightness, so make sure he's active before you consider betting on him as an NBA Cup MVP dark horse. But with Raptors forward RJ Barrett already out and guard Immanuel Quickley questionable due to an illness, the Knicks are five-point favorites over Toronto.
The Knicks have already faced both the Magic and Heat three times and have lost two of the three matchups against both teams, although they did just beat Orlando 106-100 on Sunday without Towns. The big man did notably torch the Heat for a season-high 39 points and 11 rebounds in one of their earlier games this year.
If the Knicks advance to the NBA Cup final and face the Thunder, it's unclear whether OKC will have starting center Isaiah Hartenstein back from a calf injury. If not, Towns would have a clear size advantage over Thunder big man Chet Holmgren.
Knicks point guard Jalen Brunson (+900) has better odds than Towns to win Cup MVP, but depending on how the bracket breaks, advantageous matchups could help Towns put up huge numbers en route to a Cup title. Again, make sure he's playing Tuesday night before going all-in on Towns as a Cup MVP dark horse, though.
Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder SF (+10000)
SGA's metronomic ability to score 30-plus points every game makes him the overwhelming Cup MVP favorite if the Thunder are able to bring home the Cup this year. But in a three-round, single-game tournament, anything can happen. Should Jalen Williams be this much of a long shot?
J-Dub only recently made his season debut and has averaged 17.8 points, 6.4 assists and 5.2 rebounds in only 29.0 minutes across five games. He is nowhere near as prolific of a scorer as SGA, but he's a stifling defender who can wreak havoc in passing lanes and generate fast-break opportunities.
SGA was named the NBA Finals MVP last season, but J-Dub turned heads with a 40-point, six-rebound, four-assist eruption in the Game 5 win that put OKC up 3-2 in the series. If he has another game like that during the NBA Cup knockout round, the margin between him and SGA for Cup MVP won't be nearly as wide as it is right now.
If you expect the Thunder to win the Cup this year but don't want to eat the SGA chalk, J-Dub is an extreme long shot who could pay off massively.