What the early NBA Finals odds tell us about Spurs, Knicks chances to win it all

After a clean sweep out East and an all-time classic of a seven-game series in the Western Conference, the biggest series of the NBA season has finally been set. Starting on Wednesday, June 3, the New York Knicks will face off against the San Antonio Spurs in the Finals for the chance to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy and cement their team's legacy forever.

These same two franchises faced off on this stage back in 1999, with the Spurs winning that clash and going on to win four more titles under Gregg Popovich. The Knicks, on the other hand, have not been the last team standing since way back in 1973. Will this year finally be the year for New York, which has been the hottest team in basketball for nearly a month now? Or will Victor Wembanyama begin his reign atop the NBA at just 22 years old? This is fascinating matchup from every angle, and it feels like no outcome would be all that surprising. So, who does Vegas think has the edge before Game 1?

What the oddsmakers say about the Spurs vs. Knicks?

Oddsmakers give the Spurs a decent advantage in this series, at least to start. According to FanDuel, the Spurs are at -200 odds to win the series, giving them an implied probability of 66.7 percent.

This makes sense, as the Spurs had the better regular-season record, winning nine more games (62) then the Knicks (53) in what is considered to be the (much) tougher conference. They also had the more contentious path to the NBA Finals: The Spurs had to beat the Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder, who both had top-10 net ratings. The Thunder had the best net rating in the entire NBA during the regular season. As for the Knicks, the only team with a top-10 net rating that they dealt with was the Cleveland Cavaliers (ninth in net rating).

Why the Knicks have a better chance than oddsmakers are giving them

I do think the Spurs should be favored in this series, for the reasons mentioned above. However, it's not hard to argue that sportsbooks are selling the Knicks short here.

During the regular season, the Knicks and Spurs split their two matchups. In the game New York lost, the final score was within one possession (134-132), despite the Knicks not having Landry Shamet, Mitchell Robinson or Josh Hart (the Spurs were without Devin Vassell).

In their other meeting, the Knicks whooped the Spurs by 25 points (114-89) in a game that both parties were going all out for in the NBA Cup final. The only major piece that was missing from that game was New York guard Miles McBride. Victor Wembanyama even played 34 minutes despite coming back from injury. Yet, San Antonio was outscored by 15 points when he was on the floor, a very uncharacteristic feat.

The playoffs are all about how the two specific teams matchup against one another, and in this instance, the Knicks are a fascinating counter to the Spurs. They are capable of playing true five-out lineups (Jalen Brunson, Shamet, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby and Karl-Anthony Towns) that can stretch the Spurs out and keep Wembanyama out of the paint. However, they are also capable of playing smash-mouth basketball with Robinson at the five and Hart running around creating second-chance opportunities with his unlimited motor.

The Knicks also have the player who may be the best Wembanyama defender in the entire Association, as evidenced by this poll I ran a few weeks ago.

The stats also seem to back this up:

Again, the Spurs should still have over a 50 percent chance of winning the series. But this Knicks team is very good — winning 11 straight playoff games is no small feat — so maybe that opening line should reflect more of a 55/45 split than 67/33.

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