Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The Spurs, fresh off a 62-20 regular season are making their first playoff appearance since 2018 with a predominantly young roster.
- Looking to the Thunder’s championship run last year, the Spurs could adopt a similar strategy despite their inexperience, focusing on physicality.
- San Antonio must prioritize the minutes of their more physically imposing players to avoid being outworked by stronger opponents.
If you are the type of NBA fan who neglects the regular season and uses this week to catch up on major storylines before diving deep into the playoffs, one thing you absolutely need to know is that the San Antonio Spurs are a legit powerhouse.
They finished the regular season with the second-best record (62-20), second-best net rating (tied with the Detroit Pistons), third-best offensive rating, and third-best defensive rating. Since Jan. 1, no team has won more games (38), and only the Charlotte Hornets have a better net rating.
Young teams can win big in the playoffs
By all accounts, the Spurs -- powered by their generational star big man Victor Wembanyama -- are a true inner circle title contender. However, since this is this groups first playoff run together (and the Spurs' first playoff appearance since 2018), conventional wisdom tells us that they need to "pay their dues" in the postseason, get some much-needed experience, and then truly compete for a title next season.
This season, the Spurs are the tenth-youngest team in the NBA when you adjust for usage (per NBA Age Analysis), and only one team ahead of them (Atlanta Hawks) in this currently has a guaranteed playoff spot (the Philadelphia 76ers and Charlotte Hornets have to go through the play-in tournament). Of their top ten players in total minutes played, only Harrison Barnes and Luke Kornet have ever appeared in a playoff series.
But conventional wisdom isn't always fact, and the Oklahoma City Thunder are the perfect role model for the Spurs to follow as they embark on this run. Last year, the Thunder had the fifth-youngest playoff team when you adjust for usage when they won the NBA Championship. The year before that, they had the youngest team.
I know what you are probably thinking? Even the defending-champion Thunder needed to get one series loss under their belt before going the distance. That brings us to the other major lesson the Spurs need to learn.
The NBA Playoffs are a physical game
When the Thunder fell to the Dallas Mavericks in the second round of the Western Conference Semifinals, it wasn't their lack of experience that cost them the match. Rather, it was their lack of physicality. In that series, the Mavericks tallied 16 more offensive rebounds than the Thunder over the course of six games. In the four games the Thunder lost, they were out offensive rebounded 50 to 29.
The Spurs are a far better rebounding team than that iteration of the Thunder, ranking 11th in offensive rebounding percentage and first in defensive rebounding rate (the Thunder were 28th and 29th in those categories, respectively).
San Antonio is in a better spot to avoid getting out worked than Oklahoma City was back then. But they do need to make sure they prioritize playing their thicker soldiers (Keldon Johnson and Luke Kornet), especially when they go against more bruising teams like the Denver Nuggets (who could be their second round opponent based on the way the bracket is set up).
Experience breeds familiarity, and familiarity can be very helpful in a postseason setting. But that doesn't mean that you can count out the new kids on the block.