I have a tip for all teams hoping to win the ACC Tournament: Avoid Duke. Just don't play them. If you see them on your schedule, ask if you can play someone else instead.
If that's not possible, and you have to take the court against the Blue Devils, well, Godspeed.
The ACC might be Duke's conference, but two teams were within one game of knocking Cooper Flagg, Jon Scheyer and the Blue Devils off the top spot in the regular season rankings. Those two teams — Louisville and Clemson — stand the best chances at stunning Duke in the ACC Tournament this week, as the quarterfinals get underway on Thursday and the championship game will comense on Saturday night.
Louisville Cardinals
A strange loss to Georgia Tech is the only thing standing between Louisville and a 19-game win streak. The Cardinals lost to Duke to kick off conference play, then won nine straight, lost to Georgia Tech, then won eight more, and that's where we stand right now — with Louisville taking on the winner of Stanford vs. Cal in the conference quarterfinals on Thursday.
Chucky Hepburn, in his first year at UL after transferring from Wisconsin, is having a career year, leading the Cardinals with 16.3 points and 5.9 assists per game. He was also recently awarded ACC Defensive Player of the Year and is No. 10 in the country in steals per game. He rocks.
On second thought, though, Hepburn winning that award might anger Cooper Flagg and Duke should they match up, but that's a future problem for the Cardinals.
Deflections, disruption, defense
— Louisville Men's Basketball (@LouisvilleMBB) March 10, 2025
Chucky Hepburn is the ACC Defensive Player of the Year ‼️#GoCards pic.twitter.com/gNbCSU8Awa
Clemson Tigers
The biggest reason to believe in Clemson beating Duke? They've already done it! These Tigers handed Duke its single ACC loss a few weeks back, and have been cooking since. Clemson hasn't allowed over 70 points in its past seven games, all wins.
Chase Hunter leads the Tigers with 16 points per game, point guard Jaeden Zackery does everything a college point guard is supposed to do and Cincinnati transfer Viktor Lakhin protects the rim and can step out to shoot 3-pointers as well. One of the more underrated teams in the country, Clemson has the makings of a second (or third, but don't say that too loud) weekend team later this month.
Beating Duke once is nearly impossible. Beating them twice might actually be impossible — but don't tell Clemson that. This squad would meet Duke in the championship if both teams make a run, and taking home an ACC title would likely launch this team up to the 3-line in March Madness.
North Carolina Tar Heels
Yes, I'm serious. If North Carolina and Duke play each other, it will be in the semifinals — meaning UNC beats Wake Forest on Thursday. It also might mean UNC is playing for its NCAA Tournament life, providing some extra fire for the Tar Heels.
For the record, this is a long shot. Duke is a much, much better team than North Carolina. But I don't think Wake Forest or SMU have any chance at all to shock the Blue Devils, and UNC — despite a 1-11 record in Quad 1 games — probably stands the best chance against Duke of any of the teams in the 4-6 range in the league standings.
This offense has hit its stride down the stretch of the year and can catch fire in any game. I don't think it's unfeasible to believe it can catch lightning for 40 minutes against Duke. I'm not going to bet on it, but I'm not shutting the door on a UNC run through the ACC tourney.
Upending Duke will not be an easy task
Pretty much everything has to go right for a team to beat Duke; these guys are going to be a popular pick to win it all this year for a reason. They have the best point differential in college basketball, beating teams by an average of 22 points per game, they're an elite rebounding team, are top ten in points allowed, shoot at an elite rate both inside and outside the arc and have the potential National Player of the Year.
Essentially, you have to catch Duke on its worst day; and their worst day has to also be your best day. Do that, and they're vulnerable!