As things stand, 70.7 percent of ESPN's 2025 men's March Madness brackets have one of Duke, Florida, Auburn, St. John's or Houston as their champion. In other words, there isn't much faith in the rest of the field.
But according to NBA draft/college basketball analyst Ryan Hammer's "Trapezoid of Excellence" for all 68 NCAA tournament squads, two schools are being overlooked: Gonzaga and Maryland.
At first glance, this may seem crazy. Gonzaga is the No. 8 seed in the Midwest Region. Meanwhile, Maryland is fourth in a stacked West group headlined by top-ranked Florida, Texas Tech and the two-time defending national champs — UConn. However, Hammer could be onto something.
Don't sleep on Gonzaga or Maryland in March Madness
Hammer's quadrilateral highlights the Terrapins and Bulldogs' dominant tendencies while maintaing a sufficient pace level. For reference, the five other aforementioned schools, Texas Tech and Tennessee also fit into the figure. And after diving deeper into the stats, Maryland and Gonzaga certifiably belong.
Gonzaga is 10th and Maryland's 13th in ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI), with No. 2 seeds Michigan State and St. John's sandwiched between them. Moreover, the Bulldogs are third in the nation in offensive rating and 26th in defense; the Terps are 35th and ninth, respectively.
ESPN gives Maryland a 29.2 percent chance of reaching the Elite Eight. Notably, they (presumably) must go through the Gators or UConn to get there. Their 14.3 percent chance of making the Final Four is also quite high, knowing potential matchups with St. John's or Texas Tech await.
The Bulldogs meet the KenPom criteria that over 90 percent of national champions have since 2001. Maryland fell just shy, they were incredibly close, which the trapezoid further demonstrates. While history isn't on their side, the Terps' résumé speaks for itself.
Maryland is 10th in NET rankings while the Bulldogs are eighth. They're keeping company with high-powered programs like Michigan State, Iowa State and Texas Tech. Furthermore, the Terrapins have eight Quad 1 wins, one fewer thanthe betting favorite to win the title, Duke, and three more than Gonzaga.
Led by Big Ten Rookie of the Year Derik Queen and two upperclassmen, guard Ja'Kobi Gillespie and forward Julian Reese, the Terps are dangerous. Maryland is defensively sound. Offensively, they don't turn the ball over, are a highly efficient three-point shooting team and have the size to beat you down low with Queen.
Numbers aside, Gonzaga has two pivotal qualities for any team to succeed in the Big Dance: Veteran leadership and strong guard play. Their top three scorers, Graham Ike, Khalif Battle and Nolan Hickman, are all seniors. Fellow senior and Bulldogs lead guard Ryan Nembhard paces the country in assists per game (9.8).
Simply put, pick against Maryland or Gonzaga at your own risk.