With the NCAA Tournament set to officially start on Tuesday with a slate of games which include two 16-seeds facing off, as well as one of the First Four games, the deadline to fill out a bracket is drawing ever closer. College basketball fans have until Thursday around noon ET to fill out their brackets. If they fail to do so, then second-chance brackets should open up after the first weekend.
The tournament will officially start on Tuesday night, with matchups between St. Francis and Alabama State, as well as a First Four game between North Carolina and San Diego State. UNC's inclusion in the torunament to begin with was shrouded with controversy, as the Tar Heels athletic director was head of the committee. The Heels were initially listed in Joe Lunardi's First Four Out.
Nonetheless, the winner of UNC and San Diego State will face sixth-seeded Ole Miss. That got us thinking: Just how rare is 6-11 upset?
How often do 11 seeds upset 6 seeds in the NCAA Tournament?
As you might expect, 11 seeds don't upset the favored No. 6 seeds most of the time. However, such occurrences are far more frequent than many other upset attempts, like 12-5 or 13-4, etc. This suggests the tournament committee typically does a good job seeding teams and picking schools to make March Madness.
Ever since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, at least one 11 seed has upset a six seed in 39 percent of matchups. That means the six seed wins the vast majority of those games, but it's also a relatively high percentage for a lower-seeded teams.
NCAA Tournament history: When's the last time an 11 seed upset a 6 seed?
In the 2024 NCAA Tournament, three 11 seeds upset their six-seed opponents. That list includes Oregon, which defeated South Carolina, as well as the Duquesne Dukes, who beat the BYU. The NC State Wolfpack also got in on the action, defeating Texas Tech and going on a run to the Final Four. Below is a list of every 11-6 upset since 2010.
Season | Winning team | Losing team |
|---|---|---|
2024 | Oregon | South Carolina |
2024 | Duquesne | BYU |
2024 | NC State | Texas Tech |
2023 | Pitt | Iowa State |
2022 | Michigan | Colorado State |
2022 | Notre Dame | Alabama |
2022 | Iowa State | LSU |
2021 | Syracuse | SDSU |
2021 | UCLA | BYU |
2019 | Ohio State | Iowa State |
2018 | Syracuse | TCU |
2018 | Loyola (CH) | Miami |
2017 | Rhode Island | Creighton |
2017 | USC | SMU |
2017 | Xavier | Maryland |
2016 | Northern Iowa | Texas |
2016 | Gonzaga | Seton Hall |
2016 | Wichita State | Arizona |
2015 | Dayton | Providence |
2015 | UCLA | SMU |
2014 | Tennessee | UMASS |
2014 | Dayton | Ohio State |
2013 | Minnesota | UCLA |
2012 | Colorado | UNLV |
2012 | NC State | SDSU |
2011 | Marquette | Xavier |
2011 | VCU | Georgetown |
2011 | Gonzaga | St. John's |
2010 | Washington | Marquette |
2010 | Old Dominion | Notre Dame |
Predicting which teams can pull off 11-6 upsets in 2025
11 seeds are forever dangerous in the NCAA Tournament. While 12-5 upsets get all the love, 11 seeds secure victory over their favored opponents at a higher clip, including three times in 2024. While North Carolina has the potential to do something special if they defeat San Diego State on Tuesday, they are not alone. VCU over BYU is one of the more popular upset predictions among pundits this March. Drake, also, should not be slept on despite not playing in a power conference.