Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- UConn aims for a historic third title in four years, facing Illinois in the 2026 Final Four .
- Key matchups include a dominant front line for Illinois against UConn's explosive big man Tarris Reed Jr.
- Consistency from UConn's perimeter players will be crucial to avoid another tournament upset at the hands of the Fighting Illini.
There is a lot on the line for both Illinois and UConn ahead of their meeting in the Final Four on Saturday night. Huskies' head coach Dan Hurley can cement his place in the history books if he can guide UConn to a third title in four years, something that hasn't been seen since the end of John Wooden's UCLA dynasty.
The Fighting Illini are also looking to make their mark, adding a first national championship for a program that has been a strong Big Ten basketball member for years. The Big Ten itself is also pulling for Illinois, which along with Michigan has a chance to snap the league's 26-year championship drought.
These teams met back in November, with the Huskies winning by 13 at Madison Square Garden on Black Friday, but a lot has changed since that game. Keaton Wagler was barely a factor in that game, playing only 14 minutes, while Braylon Mullins came off the bench in his first action of the season for UConn. Let's break down three keys to this impactful Final Four matchup.
Tarris Reed vs. Illinois' front line
One of the strengths of Illinois is its front line, with the Balkan block of David Mirokovic, Tomislav Ivisic and Zvonimir Isivic being a dominant force in the NCAA Tournament. The length that trio provides has allowed Illinois to be effective defending the paint, making it harder for teams to win the rebounding battle or get easy baskets.
The big test for that group will be UConn big man Tarris Reed Jr, who has been the Huskies' most consistent player in the NCAA Tournament. Reed has averaged 21.8 points and 13.5 rebounds per game in the tournament while shooting 60 percent from the floor, making him the focal point of an offense that has seen its perimeter players be more inconsistent.
Taking Reed out of the game would make life much harder for UConn, which was out-rebounded in each of its past two NCAA Tournament games while going just 5-of-23 from deep against Duke in the Elite Eight. Making the Huskies more one-dimensional would be a key for Illinois' chances of advancing.
Keaton Wagler
The most impactful future pro on the floor should be Wagler, who has made a huge difference since becoming the Fighting Illini's starting point guard. Brad Underwood deserves a ton of credit for helping Wagler develop from an under-recruited point guard into a potential lottery pick, and that development could be the difference in this game.
Wagler is capable of taking over from a scoring perspective but his ability to get his teammates involved has elevated Illinois' offense. The Fighting Illini have seen Wagler's assist numbers dip a bit after he racked up seven dimes in the first round against Penn, which could be an issue against a team loaded with strong perimeter defenders in UConn.
The depth that Illinois has is going to be a big asset in this matchup but Wagler is the one true game wrecker on the Fighting Illini's side. Wagler had just three points in 14 minutes against the Huskies in November, production that will need to increase if Illinois is to win this game.
Consistency for UConn
One of the reasons people were hesitant to back UConn in the NCAA Tournament has been a lack of consistency from them after the calendar flipped to January. The Huskies looked the part of a dominant force in non-conference play, when they earned wins over Kansas and Florida in addition to Illinois, but that form hasn't been present for an entire game in a while.
The second weekend was proof of that concept, with the Huskies looking lights out early against Michigan State before hanging on for dear life in the Sweet 16. The opposite occurred in the Elite Eight, when Duke took advantage of poor UConn shooting to build a 19-point deficit that it took a miraculous finish to overcome for Hurley's crew.
That kind of inconsistent play is not sustainable the deeper you get in the tournament, meaning the Huskies need 40 strong minutes against Illinois in order to advance. While it is tough to bet against a team that hasn't lost a game after the first weekend of the tournament since 2009, we need to see the great UConn of November and December to believe they can make more history.