There are certain teams that can be penciled in ahead of time when projecting the NCAA Tournament field. UConn will be there. South Carolina, too. UCLA is basically a lock.
But not every team that made the tournament the year before is going to be back, and I'm not just talking about mid-major programs that won their conference tournaments. There are power conference teams that got worse this offseason and have a tough road to get back to March Madness.
Here are six teams that made the NCAA Tournament last season, but might be facing an uphill battle to get back this women's college basketball season.
Florida State
Florida State won 24 games last year thanks to the play of Ta'Niya Latson, the leading scorer in college basketball, and a very underrated big in Makayla Timpson. Unfortunately, neither is back this season. Timpson graduated to the WNBA, while Latson hit the portal and transferred to South Carolina, giving her a great shot to cap off her career with a title.
That leaves the Seminoles in a tough spot in a very good ACC. The team added Texas Tech transfer Jasmine Shavers to fill the Latson hole, but asking Shavers — a good player who averaged 14.8 points per game last year — to be a Latson replacement is asking for a lot, which isn't a knock on Shavers at all. It's just a statement about how difficult replacing Latson will be.
Kansas State
The Ayoka Lee era has ended in Manhattan. The dominant big might not have been her usual self last season, but she came on strong in the tournament to lead the Wildcats to the Sweet Sixteen.
But Lee's not the only player Kansas State lost. You could argue that Serena Sundell was the team's best player last year, but she graduated, leaving the team with holes to fill. The leading returning scorer is Taryn Sides, whose 9.2 points per game last year ranked just fifth on the team. The portal additions weren't really anything to write home about.
The one thing going for the Wildcats? A strong freshman class, as the program added three of ESPN's top 100 recruits, led by guard Jordan Speiser. Much depends on how fast the young players get up to speed.
Utah
Utah survived losing Alissa Pili and head coach Lynne Roberts last year thanks to the strong play of wing Gianna Kneepkens, who proved she could be the best player on a tournament team.
But Kneepkens apparently wanted more than that, as she transferred to UCLA this offseason. She isn't the best player for the Bruins, but she's in a much better spot to win a title.
As for Utah, the team needs Virginia Tech transfer Lani White to step up this season; she's a very good 3-point shooter, but has to show she can be a primary scoring option. Freshman guard Leonna Sneed will need to make a quick adjustment to college as well.
Cal
The Golden Bears won 25 games last season, the team's most wins since it won 32 games back in 2013. The path to another 25-win season looks tough, though.
A big part of that is that Marta Suárez transferred to TCU. Last season, Suárez averaged 12.9 points and 7.6 rebounds per game for Cal. The team will really miss her.
It will also miss three more of its top five scorers from last year, which is especially concerning because of how top heavy this team was. Five Cal players averaged in double figures, including the only returnee, Lulu Twidale. Sixth on the team in scoring was Natalia Ackerman at 2.5 points per game. Adding Morgan State transfer Naya Ojukwu helps replace some of the lost scoring, but does it help enough?
Notre Dame
Okay. These last two might be stretches as far as missing the tournament goes, but both of these teams are notably worse than they were last season.
Notre Dame basically lost everyone who wasn't Hannah Hidalgo. Olivia Miles transferred to TCU while Sonia Citron, Liatu King and Maddy Westbeld all departed for the WNBA.
Hidalgo is an elite scorer, but what will the team around her look like? The Irish added some intriguing pieces like Wake Forest center Malaya Cowles and Vanderbilt guard Iyana Moore, but there are serious question marks about this team.
USC
With star guard JuJu Watkins set to miss the entire season, USC is going to take a step back. The only question is how big that step will be.
Because Watkins isn't the only player that the Trojans have to replace. Kiki Iriafen is in the WNBA. Avery Howell and Kayleigh Heckel left in the portal — Howell is an especially big loss after how well she stepped in the NCAA Tournament after the Watkins injury.
For USC to make it back to the tournament, Georgia Tech transfer Kara Dunn has to do her best Watkins impression, while freshman Jazzy Davidson has to live up to her billing. Davidson was ESPN's No. 1 ranked recruit in this class.