Are we sure that Joe Lunardi realizes that Arkansas is a member of the SEC? The conference dominated the ESPN bracketology expert's latest projection, earning a field-leading 11 bids. And yet the Hogs — coming off a week in which they beat two tournament teams in Texas and Missouri, the latter of which came on the road without star freshman Darius Acuff — didn't manage to make any headway, remaining stuck as a No. 5 seed.
— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) March 9, 2026
But wait, it somehow gets worse. The team Lunardi has Arkansas directly behind is Texas Tech. Not only have the Red Raiders dropped three of six since losing star JT Toppin to a season-ending injury, but they also lost to the Razorbacks head-to-head in a neutral-court meeting back in December. Arkansas fans wasted no time telling Lunardi how they feel, and we have to be honest: They've got a point.
Arkansas should be a 4 seed. Beat a tournament team without Acuff and on the road.
— Shad Da God😎 (@prettyboi_inked) March 9, 2026
If only there was some way to decide which team between Arkansas and Texas Tech should be ranked ahead of who. Almost like a head to head style matchup where the victor should be given the benefit of the doubt. Shame such a mechanism doesnt exist
— Austen (@austenff) March 9, 2026
Arkansas wins last 2… tech loses last 2… Arky beat them H2H and we still can’t move up a spot.
— Biglongjahn (@Jony_Soare) March 9, 2026
Arkansas' latest Bracketology projection makes little sense
Here's how Lunardi sees the No. 3-No. 5 seeds as we enter Champ Week:
No. 3 seeds | No. 4 seeds | No. 5 seeds |
|---|---|---|
Iowa State | Gonzaga | Arkansas |
Nebraska | Virginia | Vanderbilt |
Alabama | Kansas | St. John's |
Purdue | Texas Tech | Tennessee |
Gonzaga and Virginia have racked up gaudy overall records (albeit against inferior schedules), while Kansas has a 15-9 record in Quad 1 and 2 games to fall back on. It's hard to fathom why Lunardi thinks Tech is still deserving of this standing, though.
Arkansas finished the regular season with wins in 10 of its final 13 games, finishing at 23-8 overall and 13-5 in the rugged SEC — a conference which, again, Lunardi believes to be the best in the country. Texas Tech, by contrast, dropped two straight against TCU and BYU to finish the year at 22-9 and 12-6 in Big 12 play. A stirring road win at Iowa State without Toppin is nice, but this clearly isn't the same team that we saw in December and January.
And again: Even with Toppin healthy, Arkansas beat the Red Raiders on a neutral court. The NET Ranking still favors Tech (15) over the Hogs (18), but that doesn't factor in the very relevant development of Toppin's injury. At worst, these resumes would seem to be roughly even; simply refusing to acknowledge a head-to-head result as a tiebreaker is baffling work from the nation's most prominent bracketologist.
SEC Tournament bracket: How Arkansas can help its March Madness seed
If there's a silver lining here, it's that Arkansas still very much controls its own destiny. It's hard to imagine Texas Tech making a real run in the Big 12 tourney, especially when they'll likely face Iowa State in the quarters and Arizona in the semis. Arkansas, on the other hand, enters the SEC Tournament playing as well as just about anyone in the conference this side of Florida, with a crack at likely Texas A&M in their quarterfinal game before a semifinal date with No. 2 seed Alabama.
If the Hogs can string together a couple of wins in Nashville, they'll almost certainly move up at least one seed line. And they might even be able to work their way up to a No. 3 seed, considering that Alabama is one of the teams currently ahead of them in Lunardi's pecking order. Arkansas' defense still leaves something to be desired, but their offense, with Acuff at the helm, is among the most fearsome in the country. They can beat anyone on their best day, and they have a chance to leave no doubt about their seeding in the coming days.