On Wednesday night, the Iowa State Cyclones dropped their fourth game in a row, falling to 2-4 since the start of Big 12 play. I've already written about what's going wrong on this losing streak, but to quickly summarize: teams have adjusted how they guard Audi Crooks, plus Iowa State's second-best player, Addy Brown, has now missed three consecutive games.
With four consecutive losses on their resume, it's probably time to re-frame how we talk about the Cyclones. This team no longer looks like a dark-horse title contender, but instead like a team that could be in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament completely after looking like a potential first-weekend host earlier this month. It wouldn't be shocking to see this team not even ranked next week.
Could Iowa State actually miss the NCAA Tournament?
The first team out of the NCAA Tournament last year was Virginia Tech, which went 18-12 and was 47th in the NET ratings. Teams with better records missed out, but this kind of provides a solid baseline for what the committee might be thinking: you need to get to at least 19 wins. Last year, three power conference teams got in with 19 wins.
But two Big 12 teams finished with exactly 19, and both missed out, so maybe it's more like 20 wins? Well ... Colorado won 20 games and was left out, proof that the committee doesn't value the Big 12 the same way it values other power conferences. So, let's say Iowa State needs to get to 21 wins to guarantee a spot, which means finding eight more wins this season. That means going 7-5 the rest of the way. Maybe non-conference wins over Iowa and Indiana boost the team's resume enough that it gets in at 20 wins, but that still means needing six wins, and I wouldn't be too sure about that.
Based on how hard the upcoming schedule is, seven wins will be tough. You have to beat Cincinnati, Arizona, UCF, BYU and Arizona State. Those are the "easy" wins, though it's hard to call anything easy when this team has already lost to Cincinnati. You then still need to steal two more games. Texas Tech and Utah are both road games, but you probably need one of them. You play Kansas State twice and the Wildcats are certainly beatable. You also have the conference tournament to build the resume a bit more, but you can't afford an early upset there.
Overall, the path forward is tough, but I think there are enough winnable games for this team to back its way into the tournament, but it's not guaranteed.
How can the Cyclones get back on track?
The easiest way would be to get Addy Brown back, but the team's second-best player is out indefinitely, which isn't a good sign, and head coach Bill Fennelly doesn't sound particularly optimistic about that.
Instead, the Cyclones need other players to step up. Crooks was held in check against Colorado, but Iowa State definitely still had a chance thanks to Sydney Harris going 4-for-8 from deep. However, Harris can't be the only one making shots. Mackenzie Hare has to make open looks. Jada Williams has to start making teams pay when they hedge off of her to guard Crooks. Simply put: Audi Crooks can't be Audi Crooks if defenses can just ignore everyone else on the floor.
So, basically, uhh ... Iowa State's non-Crooks players have to start hitting shots. At the same time, Crooks has to find a way to still dominate when doubled. If that means adjusting her game and shooting the ball a little outside of the restricted area, then maybe it means that. Crooks is shooting 43.5 percent on midrange attempts, which is a solid mark. However, she's only taken 23 midrange shots. Nine of those have come in conference play, and she's only made three, so ... IDK, it's possible this could be a losing change, but you have to shake things up somehow, right?
Largely, I think without Brown, Iowa State's chances to make serious noise are over, but the team can adjust enough to win some more games and get a first-round win in the NCAA Tournament.
When will Iowa State end its losing streak?
Iowa State plays Oklahoma State on the road on Jan. 18, a game we can probably go ahead and pencil in as a loss. But on Jan. 21, the team hosts Cincinnati and should win that one.
It's not a guarantee seeing as Cincinnati has already defeated Iowa State this season. That game was on the road, though, and this one will be in Ames. The Bearcats rank 291st in the nation in defensive rating, so if there's a time for the non-Crooks options to actually do something, this is it.
Losing twice to Cincy would really change the math on what this Iowa State team's future looks like. This probably isn't a tournament team if it loses that one, but I still have just enough confidence in the Cyclones to predict an ISU win.