Bracketology: Texas is fighting their way off of bubble watch

The SEC made March Madness history last year when they got 14 teams into the field of 68 but the last one to make it was Texas, which needed to go via the First Four route to get into the actual bracket. A loss to Xavier in that game saw Rodney Terry get shown the door and hire Sean Miller, who just knocked the Longhorns out, land in Austin as his replacement.

It took Miller a bit of time to get cooking but the Longhorns have started stacking good wins in SEC play, ending Vanderbilt's undefeated run and scoring a road win at Alabama to boot, but there have also been some mis-steps along the way. Where do the Longhorns land on the latest edition of FanSided's Bubble Watch? Read on to find out, but first remember these important rules for the Bubble Watch column.

1. All records are through the conclusion of action on Tuesday or Wednesday of the given week, in this case Jan. 28.
2. All metrics are also current through the conclusion of action on Tuesday or Wednesday.
3. Any team currently leading its conference is not eligible for bubble watch since they will be assumed to have their league's automatic bid to the tournament for the purposes of this exercise.
4. Strength of schedule figures are based on KenPom's totals. Strength Of Schedule and Non Conference Strength Of Schedule will be short-handed to SOS and NCSOS in each team's description.

Bubble Watch: Last four byes

UCF Knights

• Conference: Big 12
• Record: 16-4 (5-3)
• SOS: 49
• NCSOS: 214
• Last Game: W 79-76 Vs. Arizona State
• Next Game: Vs. No. 11 Texas Tech 1/31

After their big win against Kansas, the Knights have largely held serve, beating the teams they were supposed to and losing to better teams like Arizona and Iowa State. That trend will keep you firmly on the bubble but UCF has an opportunity to change their narrative as their next two games come against ranked teams, beginning with Saturday's visit from No. 11 Texas Tech.

UCLA Bruins

• Conference: Big Ten
• Record: 15-6 (7-3)
• SOS: 57
• NCSOS: 296
• Last Game: W 73-57 At Oregon
• Next Game: Vs. Indiana 1/31

A road win against Oregon may not seem like much with the Ducks having a down year but it was important for UCLA as one of their rare victories away from Pauley Pavilion, which is important since they won't be playing March Madness games there. The Bruins are back home on Saturday against fellow Big Ten bubbler Indiana and would like to get that game to solidify their bubble status with a crucial head-to-head result.

Ohio State Buckeyes

• Conference: Big Ten
• Record: 14-6 (6-4)
• SOS: 53
• NCSOS: 290
• Last Game: W 84-78 Vs. Penn State
• Next Game: At Wisconsin 1/31

Things got a little too close for comfort for Ohio State against the lowly Penn State Nittany Lions but a six-point win is good enough to keep things moving in the right direction. Saturday's trip to Wisconsin offers a big opportunity for the Buckeyes to add a signature road win to their resume against a team they could be directly competing against for an at-large bid.

Texas Longhorns

• Conference: SEC
• Record: 12-9 (3-5)
• SOS: 14
• NCSOS: 292
• Last Game: L 88-82 At Auburn
• Next Game: At Oklahoma 1/31

The nine losses aren't ideal for Texas, but they have gone through a lot of strong SEC foes already and scored three wins against ranked opponents to show they can handle quality competition. Taking advantage of Oklahoma's slump to bounce back from a tight loss at Auburn is important if Sean Miller's team wants to stay here by the time we do our next update.

Bubble Watch: Last four in

New Mexico Lobos

• Conference: Mountain West
• Record: 17-4 (8-2)
• SOS: 93
• NCSOS: 147
• Last Game: W 89-61 At UNLV
• Next Game: At San Jose State 1/31

While a recent loss to San Diego State was a frustrating missed opportunity, the Lobos have done good work by beating everyone else the Mountain West has put in front of them, which is important to avoid adding bad losses to a resume that has two shaky ones. Saturday's trip to San Jose State is another one in that category that New Mexico needs to get to stay on the right side of the cut line.

USC Trojans

• Conference: Big Ten
• Record: 15-6 (4-6)
• SOS: 21
• NCSOS: 197
• Last Game: L 73-72 At Iowa
• Next Game: Vs. Rutgers 1/31

Strong scheduling numbers are certainly a help for USC but their win over Seton Hall in Maui is aging poorly with the Pirates in a slump. Losses to Washington and Northwestern in league play are also hurting the Trojans and they will need to find a few quality results to stay above the cut line in the coming weeks.

Miami Hurricanes

• Conference: ACC
• Record: 17-4 (6-2)
• SOS: 138
• NCSOS: 343
• Last Game: W 79-70 Vs. Stanford
• Next Game: Vs. California 1/31

Winning 17 of 21 games against any college basketball teams isn't easy but Miami sure has a lot of empty calorie victories thanks to a poor non-conference schedule where they dropped the only two games of note against Florida and BYU. The Hurricanes are also carrying a bad loss to Florida State in league play but there is plenty of time for Miami to prove its bona fides with dates against North Carolina, Virginia and Louisville still to come.

Santa Clara Broncos

• Conference: WCC
• Record: 18-5 (9-1)
• SOS: 100
• NCSOS: 83
• Last Game: W 88-73 Vs. San Francisco
• Next Game: At Loyola Marymount 1/31

The Broncos certainly pass the eye test of a tournament team and played a ranked Saint Louis group tight in a one-point loss earlier this season, but they have to stack as many wins as they can in WCC play to make themselves a viable at-large threat with their SOS figures likely to dip the further they get into league play. Having a win over Saint Mary's in their pocket is a nice start and if they could find a way to pick off Gonzaga at home on Valentine's Day they'd be cooking with gas.

Bubble Watch: First four out

Seton Hall Pirates

• Conference: Big East
• Record: 15-6 (5-5)
• SOS: 69
• NCSOS: 289
• Last Game: W 86-68 Vs. Xavier
• Next Game: Vs. Marquette 1/31

A win over Xavier snapped a four-game losing streak for the Pirates but the damage the skid did to Seton Hall's March Madness dreams was massive, especially considering two of the losses came at home to Butler and at DePaul. A weak non-conference schedule is also hurting the Pirates, who need to start stacking wins before they get another shot at the league's top dogs towards the end of the regular season.

Virginia Tech Hokies

• Conference: ACC
• Record: 16-6 (5-4)
• SOS: 63
• NCSOS: 195
• Last Game: W 71-65 Vs. Georgia Tech
• Next Game: Vs. No. 4 Duke 1/31

The scheduling numbers are nice for Virginia Tech but playing hard games doesn't account for much when the only quality win you can point to is a victory over Virginia by 10. That result does matter, but the Hokies need more of them to get above the cutline, with Saturday's home date against No. 4 Duke a massive opportunity they really shouldn't bypass.

Indiana Hoosiers

• Conference: Big Ten
• Record: 14-7 (5-5)
• SOS: 52
• NCSOS: 291
• Last Game: W 72-67 Vs. No. 12 Purdue
• Next Game: At UCLA 1/31

Tuesday's win over No. 12 Purdue may have been a season-saver for Indiana, which had yet to demonstrate it could be an NCAA-Tournament caliber team before taking down the Boilermakers at Assembly Hall. Following up that game with a cross-country trip to UCLA is tough but the Hoosiers will need to avoid having too much of a hangover from the Purdue game since this one is also very key to turning their season around.

Stanford Cardinal

• Conference: ACC
• Record: 14-7 (3-5)
• SOS: 58
• NCSOS: 225
• Last Game: L 79-70 At Miami (FL)
• Next Game: At Florida State 1/31

This is a group that has good results (home wins against Saint Louis, Louisville and North Carolina) but is trending in the wrong direction with losses in four of its past five games. The lone win the Cardinal have in that span is their victory over the Tar Heels and they have already played most of the ACC's top teams, with only a visit from No. 22 Clemson next week offering much in the way of bubble opportunity.

Bubble Watch: Next four out

TCU Horned Frogs

• Conference: Big 12
• Record: 13-8 (3-5)
• SOS: 61
• NCSOS: 331
• Last Game: L 79-70 Vs. No. 10 Houston
• Next Game: At Colorado 2/1

The only thing keeping TCU on this page is a win over Florida when the Gators were deep in their funk as the rest of the team sheet is completely uninspiring. A poor non-conference schedule could really haunt the Horned Frogs if they can't showcase they belong in the field with a few wins against top Big 12 competition, something Sunday's trip to Colorado certainly is not.

Missouri Tigers

• Conference: SEC
• Record: 14-7 (4-4)
• SOS: 75
• NCSOS: 354
• Last Game: L 90-64 At No. 23 Alabama
• Next Game: Vs. Mississippi State 1/31

Watching the Tigers get completely run off the floor by Alabama is not a good eye test result for Missouri, which is lucky the committee looks at more than just individual performances. Like TCU above them, a very poor non-conference slate means the Tigers need to do the majority of their heavy lifting in SEC play and hold serve against the league's bottom feeders like Mississippi State.

Creighton Bluejays

• Conference: Big East
• Record: 12-9 (6-4)
• SOS: 29
• NCSOS: 97
• Last Game: L 86-62 At Marquette
• Next Game: Vs. No. 2 UCONN 1/31

All the momentum that Creighton was building in Big East play has come to a crashing halt with two losses in their past three games, including an ugly 24-point defeat at a Marquette team that has been one of the worst power conference teams in the country this season. It's not ideal to have a visit from No. 2 UCONN in late January rate as a must-win for your NCAA Tournament resume but that is exactly where the Bluejays find themselves as a result of their poor non-conference performance against an admittedly tough schedule.

California Golden Bears

• Conference: ACC
• Record: 15-6 (3-5)
• SOS: 81
• NCSOS: 326
• Last Game: L 63-61 At Florida State
• Next Game: At Miami (FL) 1/31

This resume is very similar to Stanford's with fewer top-end results and questionable losses, which makes sense as to why the Golden Bears still have work to do to try and qualify for the NCAA Tournament. After dropping the first half of the Florida trip to a bad Florida State team, Cal really needs to fly back home with a win over fellow bubbler Miami to feel good about their chances heading down the stretch of league play.

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