Looking at the end of December 2024, the top teams in college basketball were Tennessee, Auburn, Iowa State, Kentucky, and Duke. While waiting for the landscape to change from non-conference play to focusing on their biggest rivals, the biggest brands in the sport were still riding on their reputation in the rankings.
Fast-forward to March Madness, the No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament were Auburn, Duke, Florida, and Houston. And for just the second time in history, those four teams made the Final Four. Florida ended December ranked 7th, and Houston was 15th after a few early losses. This year, we’re trying to predict which teams have the best chance to get a one seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament. We’re starting to see who might be really good, but there are a few teams that could bounce back in a big way in conference play.
1. Arizona Wildcats
- Current Record: 10-0
- Current AP Ranking: 1
There is a clear battle for the top team in college basketball between the Arizona Wildcats and the Michigan Wolverines. Both teams are undefeated, and they have been dominating the competition. They look like they should be the top two seeds in the tournament come March. Now, we know anything can happen. Tennessee looked this good at this time last season and still fell to a two seed. However, we’re sticking with our gut and our eyes on this one.
Arizona takes the top spot because of its resume. So far this season, they’ve played five ranked teams in their first nine (now 10) games. They are undefeated. It doesn’t matter who is in front of them; they win. The Wildcats have already beaten UConn, Auburn, Alabama, UCLA, and the defending champion Florida Gators in their first game of the season. They’ve had an insane schedule already this season.
Arizona is taking a layered approach to scoring. Nobody on their team is averaging 15 or more points per game, but five players are averaging 10+ points. Forward Koa Peat leads the way with 14.3 points. Tobe Awaka is averaging just under a double-double per game. They go eight players deep, and it will be hard for any team to match their depth. If one guy is cold, there are four or five players who can step up in their absence.
2. Michigan Wolverines
- Current Record: 10-0
- Current AP Ranking: 2
The Wolverines are a KemPom darling. Their Net Rating there is one of the best since the rating was created in the 1990s. According to their data, Michigan’s 37.4 Net Rating is four points better than the next best team. They have the fifth-best offensive rating and the best defensive rating in college basketball.
And we’re seeing those results on the court. The Wolverines are ruining good teams on both sides of the court. Not to spoil anything, but they beat a team on this list by 40 points. This is a team we think has a chance at a one seed! They’ve scored more than 100 points in five of their 10 games. While they struggled a little early, needing overtime to beat Wake Forest and eeking out a four-point win over TCU, they’ve been absolutely trashing the competition in the past few weeks.
It’s going to be a crazy competition at the top of the Big Ten this season, but Michigan looks like a standout even with the value up and down the conference. Like Arizona, Michigan has five players averaging double digits per game in scoring. They have a really good flow across the lineup, with top eight players averaging between 18 and 28 minutes per game. The coaching staff knows they don’t need to lean on one or two players, and they have bench players who would be starters on most NCAA teams.
3. Duke Blue Devils
- Current Record: 11-0
- Current AP Ranking: 3
Ah, Duke. Here we are again. The clear number three after two powerhouses, the Blue Devils are once again dominant as they head into ACC play. They have an interesting schedule, with a few weak teams that Duke feasted on in its 11 wins, but they still have five quality wins this season, including beating Florida by one and Michigan State by six. They beat three ranked teams in a row in Arkansas, Florida, and MSU, helping them solidify their place in the rankings.
Many were curious how Duke would look one year after losing the best player in college basketball: Cooper Flagg. They found one in Cameron Boozer. Boozer is leading the nation with 23.3 points per game. On top of that, he’s averaging 10.2 rebounds per game. He’s playing like a true superstar in the sport. He’s expected to be a top-three pick in next year’s NBA Draft, and he could very easily take the top spot if he keeps playing like this.
Despite having such a quality player in Boozer, Duke is more than one player. Patrick Ngongba II has been really good on both sides of the court. Isaiah Evans found his scoring touch at guard. Caleb Foster is hitting at 40% from three. Duke has a quality team that should be back fighting for a top seed in the tournament. While their biggest matchups were razor-thin, it’s important for a team with a lot of turnover to get some of those close wins early in the season.
4. North Carolina Tar Heels
- Current Record: 10-1
- Current AP Ranking: 12
This is the first time we're straying away from the rankings, and we strayed far. North Carolina is currently ranked 12th in the AP poll and 13th in the Coaches poll. As far as voting points go, NC starts a tier drop-off. They are more than 100 points in the AP poll behind No. 11 Louisville. The Tar Heels have a pretty bad loss on their resume, losing to Michigan State by 16 points. However, they bounced back by beating ranked Kentucky by four. This team has moxie, and there’s something to be said about a talented team with confidence.
It’s not like the Spartans were the only team North Carolina has played this season. Outside Kentucky, the Tar Heels have also beaten Kansas and Georgetown. They will go as far as Caleb Wilson takes them. He’s averaging 19.5 points and 10.4 rebounds. They also have Henri Veesaar, averaging 16.9 points and 9.1 rebounds. This is a clear one-two punch in the front court. It will be hard for other teams, including Duke, to match the size of these two. Skill is another story, which will lead to a great matchup between those two.
As far as North Carolina getting back in the one-seed conversation, they have the perfect schedule to make that happen. They have just enough ranked games on the schedule (currently four), and three of them are against the best of the best (two against Duke and one against Louisville). The Tar Heels need to at least split with Duke and get to the ACC Championship Game to have a shot at this, but we don’t see why that couldn’t happen with the talent that’s on this roster.
5. Iowa State Cyclones
- Current Record: 11-0
- Current AP Ranking: 4
Let’s head back to the gauntlet that is Big 12 basketball. Where this conference falters in football, they more than make up for it on the hardwood. Right now, there are six ranked teams in the Big 12, with four of them being in the top 10. All four of those teams have a claim they could be top seeds, including No. 1 Arizona and last year’s one-seed Houston.
That’s going to help the top teams in the conference look really good, including Iowa State. Already 11-0 with wins over St. John’s and then-No. 1 Purdue. In fact, they handled Purdue, beating them 81-58 a few weeks ago. They sank 11 three-pointers in the game, showing how their shooting prowess could help them beat even the best teams in the nation. It also showed how ISU could ride waves to big wins, as they only held a four-point lead at the half and actually saw themselves on the losing end for most of the first half.
Iowa State is actually ranked second in the latest KemPom ratings, ahead of current No. 1 Arizona. Their second-ranked defense is driving their performance right now, but having the 11th-ranked offense also helps. It also helps to have both Milan Momcilovic and Joshua Jefferson averaging 17.5 points per game. That defense is going to be important as the Big 12 schedule begins.
6. UConn Huskies
- Current Record: 11-1
- Current AP Ranking: 5
The University of Connecticut is still at No. 5 in both the AP and Coaches Poll despite losing a game early in the season. That loss came at the hands of current No. 1 Arizona pretty early in the season. UConn lost by four points after just beating No. 7 BYU by two. It was a brutal back-to-back on the schedule, and they made a furious comeback in the game. They went from a double-digit deficit to bringing it within one possession in the final seconds.
Since losing to Arizona, UConn has beaten ranked Illinois, Kansas, and Florida. Their schedule so far has been a gauntlet, and they came out of it with only one loss to the top team in the land. That’s not bad!
UConn is really deep, with nine players playing at least 18 minutes a game and all of them scoring at least five points per game. It’s a true team effort from the Huskies, with five different players leading the team in scoring in games this season. Each player plays the role that best suits them for the matchup, and that makes them a nightmare to play against. They also have the easiest schedule of teams we’ve already mentioned, with only No. 22 St. John’s left on the schedule as a ranked team. Many believe UConn could come out of this season with just one or two losses.
7. Gonzaga Bulldogs
- Current Record: 10-1
- Current AP Ranking: 7
Gonzaga played one high-end team so far this season, and they got smoked. Like, it was embarrassing how badly they got demolished by Michigan. They lost by 40 points! They gave up 101 points against! It ruined their reputations in one night. Gonzaga never had a chance, going down 24 at halftime and never recovering. This is what happens when a team allows 53 in one half. It’s not a good look.
Yet, they bounced back in a huge way. The Bulldogs have won every game since then, including a dominant victory over Kentucky and a pretty convincing rout of UCLA, both ranked at the time of their matchup. That’s why Gonzaga is still third in the KemPop rankings, two spots behind the Michigan team that destroyed them.
We’ve seen great teams take their eye off the ball against the wrong opponent and see the game slip away. It happens. Luckily, this time it happened in November. This is still a team with two players scoring more than 17 points per game, including Branden Huff, who is scoring 19 points per game. Like always, Gonzaga should have an easy time dispatching the West Coast Conference on their way to March Madness.
8. Michigan State Spartans
- Current Record: 9-1
- Current AP Ranking: 9
We're going to go back-to-back with two Big Ten teams that need to find some separation between each other. One or the other is likely going to come out of this season looking great, while the other might be fighting to make noise as a four or five seed. That's how tough the Big Ten is going to be this year. It has big "not enough room for the both of us" energy.
Let's start with Michigan State, who had wins against then-ranked Arkansas, North Carolina, and Kentucky before eventually losing to Duke. It's been a decently hard schedule for the Spartans, and it's only getting harder. They still have five ranked opponents on the schedule, including Purdue and Michigan. They have Nebraska in a few weeks, which will be a barometer game for both teams. The loser of that matchup will have an uphill battle to a No. 1 seed.
Tom Izzo is always the "star" at Michigan State, but he has another good one behind him in forward Jaxon Kohler. He's averaging more than 14 points and 10 rebounds per game. He added three-point shooting to his arsenal, and that be the game changer for Michigan State. He's shooting a ridiculous 47% from behind the arc. If he just shoots more, which is expected now that he's taken over the offense,
9. Purdue Boilermakers
- Current Record: 10-1
- Current AP Ranking: 6
Many will consider Purdue way too low on this list, but the Big Ten is just stacked from top to bottom, and these margins are razor-thin. The Boilermakers could end up being the top team in the conference pretty easily. Michigan looks like the star of the show, but anything can happen, and Purdue is stacked with talent itself. Four players on the team are scoring at least 12 points per game, and they are shooting just under 40% from three as a team.
The issue with the Boilermakers is their schedule coming into Big Ten play. This is a great conference, and Purdue's only faced three quality teams so far this season. A lot of the teams ahead of them have only lost to each other. That's true of Purdue, whose loss is against Iowa State, but that gives them just two quality wins.
Purdue will have plenty of chances to show they belong as a one seed and to show that we're wrong with this relatively low ranking. They have matchups with both Michigan and Michigan State in the last month of the season, when all those teams should be at the peak of their powers barring injury.
10. Nebraska Cornhuskers
- Current Record: 11-0
- Current AP Ranking: 15
There's always that one team that remains undefeated, and nobody trusts them until they absolutely have to. That's the Nebraska Cornhuskers this season. They've won all 11 of their games in front of them, but they are ranked 15th in the nation. They aren't even in a small conference. They play in the ridiculous Big Ten! While they haven't started that part of their schedule yet, most would assume they would get at least a little bit of respect at this point.
Well, after beating the Fighting Illini on the road this week, they are starting to get some attention. They moved up eight spots in the rankings after that result, and people are now figuring this is more than a mirage. We will learn so much more about this team on January 2nd when they take on Michigan State. Up until then, we have to assume this team has what it takes to win because that's all it does. They also have a matchup with Michigan on January 27th that will tell a fascinating tale. If Nebraska can upset both teams from the Great Lakes State, they might be ranked No. 1!
The Cornhuskers still have some convincing to do. KemPom has them ranked 21st in their rankings, sixth in the Big Ten behind two-loss Iowa. They have all of the makings of an upset special. Let's see if they can do it.
This year is strangely stacked with teams good enough to be one seeds. We didn't mention Houston, BYU, Louisville, or Vanderbilt. Heck, we don't even want to discount the defending champion Florida Gators despite their four losses. If any of these teams win their conference, they can sneak into a No. 1 seed in the tournament.