College basketball teams have steadily become more reliant on success behind the three-point arc to supercharge their efficient offenses in recent seasons. That trend might finally be coming to an end. One key stat shows that the two-point shot might be making a comeback on a college campus near you this season.
Statistically season, the three-point shot proved to be more valuable than the two-point shot in the college game from 2000 to 2024. Savvy college coaches leaned in to those statistical models to encourage pace and space at every opportunity.
2025 represents the first time in over 20 years that the value of a two-point shot finally eclipsed that of their long-distance brethren. The shorter shot only won the battle by .01 points but it still represents a win for critics of the college game who want to see a more well-balanced shot diet from elite teams.
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Don't expect coaches to suddenly abandon the three-point shot. This statistical change should just lead high-level coaches to tweak their tactics. Elite shooters will still get the green light to put up as many jumpers as possible. The bigger change should be seen when coaches try to discourage their weaker shooters to chuck up shots from behind the line. Far too many big members suddenly fancy themselves as exceptional marksman when their shooting percentages indicate otherwise.
Another tactic coaches might take from this data is to emphasize more drives to the basket from their talented ballhandlers. Getting to the free throw line remains a solid driver of offensive efficiency. Guards and wings might be encouraged to pass up threes to put pressure on the rim. Fans of acrobatic finishes at the rim might be in for a slight renaissance this season.
In the end, don't expect to see three point attempts take a massive dip this season. Teams with elite shooters will still encourage them to get attempts up at a high volume. Teams who aren't blessed with that sort of perimeter talent might try to slightly cool the triggers of their guards and wings. Time will tell if this statiscal trend turns out to be a blip on the radar or a true sea change on shot selection. Data driven programs will keep a close eye on the earl season data as they plot out how they'll want to play as the postseason approaches.