There has been a defined tier of title contenders for most of the season, with Arizona and Michigan headlining the group thanks to dominant performance alongside excellent predictive metrics. While the Wolverines were tripped up early in conference play by Wisconsin, the Wildcats had remained undefeated entering Monday night's trip to Allen Fieldhouse, carrying a gaudy 23-0 record into a showdown with No. 11 Kansas.
That perfect run is no more after Kansas beat the nation's top team 82-78 to secure their first victory over a No. 1 team in the history of Allen Fieldhouse. That performance came without the services of star freshman Darryn Peterson, who had to sit out due to flu-like symptoms, showcasing how scary the Jayhawks can be even without their biggest star.
We can now welcome the Jayhawks to the title conversation in this week's edition of the college basketball stock watch. Read on to see who else is joining Kansas on the rise and who needs to stop the bleeding in the fallers section.
College Basketball Stock Watch: Rising
Kansas Jayhawks
The worry over Kansas' 1-2 start to Big 12 play following road losses to UCF and West Virginia is long past as the Jayhawks haven't lost since that trip to Morgantown. Monday's victory over Arizona was the eighth in a row for Kansas, who has topped four ranked teams (Iowa State, Texas Tech, BYU, Arizona) over that stretch.
The fact that the Jayhawks were able to take down the top team in the country without Peterson is extremely impressive and showcases the incredible depth that Bill Self has built this year. If Peterson can stay healthy the rest of the way there is no reason to rule out a Kansas title run for the second time in five years.
St. John's Red Storm
The road to the Big East crown runs through St. John's again after the Red Storm made an early statement against No. 3 UCONN, winning in front of a sea of red at Madison Square Garden on Friday night to improve to 12-1 in Big East play. Rick Pitino's team has won 10 in a row since their loss to Providence, an ugly Quad 3 defeat, and a big part of their success has been the insertion of Dillon Mitchell into the starting lineup.
There isn't a true point guard on the Red Storm's roster but Mitchell's ability to function as a point forward has unlocked the offense, which has become notably more efficient over the past month and a half. While the lack of a true point guard may be an issue in March, right now the Red Storm have demonstrated an ability to win without one, even taking down a legitimate title contender in UCONN as proof of concept.
North Carolina Tar Heels
The disastrous California trip, which saw the Tar Heels get swept by both Cal and Stanford, may have been a necessary rock bottom for North Carolina to turn their season around. The Tar Heels have ripped off five wins in a row since returning to the East Coast, including victories over a ranked Virginia side and a buzzer-beating triumph over No. 4 Duke on Saturday night in the latest installment of the Tobacco Road rivalry.
Those losses in California, along with one at SMU, probably will keep UNC from having a legitimate shot at the ACC's regular season title, but Hubert Davis has to be impressed with his team's defensive improvement. After surrendering over 90 points per game during a rough patch in mid-January, the Tar Heels have clamped down of late, never giving up more than 80 points in any game during their winning streak.
Upsets
While Kansas taking down Arizona isn't really an upset, we did have some dramatic results last week to serve as a reminder that the college basketball season can produce all kinds of chaos. Wednesday night was particularly crazy, with Michigan State losing on the road to Minnesota and Gonzaga falling at Portland, a team that entered their matchup 10-14.
That defeat may well cost Gonzaga a spot on the top two lines of the NCAA Tournament bracket, which goes to show you that every game matters over the course of the season. We still have over a month to go until Selection Sunday, so don't be shocked if we have more crazy results as the season hits the stretch run.
College Basketball Stock Watch: Falling
Michigan State Spartans
After cruising through most of the season, No. 10 Michigan State has hit a certified rough patch for the first time. The Spartans lost two games in a row last week, falling to No. 2 Michigan before suffering a road upset at Minnesota before outlasting No. 5 Illinois in overtime to stop the bleeding for now.
Tom Izzo also has a potential headache on his hand in point guard Jeremy Fears Jr, the team's best player, who has caused controversy with fouls that are evoking the memory of Grayson Allen. Fears stepped up for the Spartans on Saturday night, racking up 26 points and 15 assists to top Illinois, but Michigan State needs him to avoid dumb mistakes if they hope to make a deep March run.
BYU Cougars
The Cougars were falling last week and didn't win a game again, losing at bubbly Oklahoma State 99-92 before falling at home to No. 8 Houston by 11 to drop their fourth game in a row. The run that BYU has been on is a rough one since they have dealt with plenty of ranked opponents, but their defeats showcase that they appear to be a tier or two below the nation's top contenders for an NCAA Tournament title.
A Sweet 16 run would feel like a disappointment for BYU, which spent a lot of NIL money to get A.J. Dybantsa's freshman year and swipe Rob Wright away from Baylor. There are still three ranked games left on BYU's schedule and it would be nice to see them win one of those to show that they are capable of beating top competition in March.
Texas A&M Aggies
It may seem hard to believe that Texas A&M was the SEC leader for a significant portion of January, especially since preseason polls were down on the Aggies. A two-loss week has taken the wind out of the Aggies' sails as they lost a shootout at Alabama before falling at home to No. 17 Florida by 19, dropping them to 7-3 in league play and 17-6 overall.
The numbers look okay but a deeper look at Texas A&M's team sheet shows a true bubble outfit whose best victories have come against the middle of the pack in the SEC. A poor non-conference schedule didn't help Texas A&M, whose best non-league wins came against ACC bottom feeders Pitt and Florida State, so they have to showcase their ability to handle top competition if they hope to avoid sweating things out on Selection Sunday.
The Big East
The Big East is heading towards another disappointing showing in March in terms of representation. While many pundits felt the conference was robbed in the 2023 NCAA Tournament when they received just three bids, the projected three bids that the league is on pace to earn this season feels very deserved since the quality of the conference is way down.
St. John's and UCONN are locks while Villanova is a safe bet to claim an at-large as well. Creighton's complete collapse from the preseason poll and Seton Hall's stumbles after a 14-2 start have robbed the Big East of a chance at more than three bids unless one of them (or someone else who has flashed occasionally like Georgetown) gets hot at Madison Square Garden in March and steals the league's automatic berth.