Duke isn't good enough to treat this NCAA Tournament like a cakewalk

Say this for Duke: At least they're moving on to the second round of March Madness. But that's about the only silver lining to take away from Thursday, when the Blue Devils were pushed to the absolute limit by a No. 16 seed in Siena that literally did not substitute a single time in the entire game.

Duke trailed by double-digits at halftime, arguably the best defense in the country allowing a whopping 43 points to a MAAC team. As if that weren't evidence enough that Jon Scheyer didn't have his team ready to play, forward Maliq Brown came out and said it to CBS' Tracy Wolfson before the start of the second half, admitting that "we thought [this game] was going to be a cakewalk".

Duke underestimated Siena, they just didn't fully get caught

This is hardly the first time that a No. 1 seed has overlooked its first-round opponent in the NCAA Tournament, and lord knows it won't be the last. And Duke does deserve credit for not folding the way Virginia and Purdue did in their historic upset losses, but instead ramping up the defensive intensity and crashing the offensive glass with reckless abandon on a day when they couldn't buy a shot from the perimeter.

Still: This wasn't just one bad half before pulling away from an overwhelmed opponent. This was a slog of a performance, a game that was very much still in doubt into the final minutes. Duke got away with taking their opponent for granted, but they won't get another mulligan in this tournament — and such a close call should serve as a reminder that this team isn't good enough to expect its talent to bail it out all the way to a Final Four.

Injury-ravaged Duke got exposed in near-upset against Siena

Credit to Siena coach Gerry McNamara: He put on a masterclass in how to pull off an upset as a heavy underdog on Thursday, so much so that Scheyer straight-up admitted after the game that he'd been badly outcoached. (Fact check: true.) Knowing that his team was giving up a ton of size and strength on the interior, McNamara had the Saints play zone and pack the paint to an almost comical degree, swarming Cameron Boozer with multiple bodies every time he even looked at the basket with the ball in his hands.

Rather than forcing the issue, Boozer, understandably, made the easy pass and found the open man. The problem was that Duke didn't have the shooting to make Siena pay: The Blue Devils shot a grotesque 5-of-26 from deep on the day. Part of that is simply bad luck, to be sure. But bad luck will get you sent home this time of year, and it's also worth noting that, while Duke is a good 3-point shooting team on the season, much of that was thanks to sharpshooter Caleb Foster — who didn't play on Thursday due to injury and whose status for the rest of the tournament remains very much in doubt.

Without Foster, Duke is left with a seven-man rotation (assuming big man Patrick Ngongba returns in the second round), one very light on shooting. Boozer and Isaiah Evans are really the only two players you trust from deep, and the Devils don't want their National Player of the Year candidate turning himself into a perimeter player and negating his brute force inside. The lack of spacing is a real problem going forward, especially with ferocious defenses like Kansas, St. John's, UConn and Michigan State looming in Duke's region.

Was Thursday's result in some ways a fluke? Sure; even a poor shooting team will probably be able to crack 20 percent moving forward. But the book is now out on how to beat this version of Duke, which puts the pressure on their head coach to prove he has what it takes to solve problems in March.

Jon Scheyer will need to prove himself to get Duke back to the Final Four

Scheyer has for the most part acquitted himself quite well as the man who followed Coach K in Durham, an unenviable position for any coach — let alone one without any real experience in a top job — to find themselves. Duke's ability to attract (read: pay) top talent often overshadows his abilities as an in-game coach, which are better than most people assume.

But he still has questions to answer, especially after sitting idly by as Cooper Flagg, Kon Knueppel and Co. melted down against Houston in last year's Final Four. Beleaguered by injuries and a long run through the ACC Tournament, you could forgive Duke for just trying to get out of Thursday with a win as quickly possible. Coming out as flat as they did, though, is a concern, as is how few answers the Devils head to what Siena was doing.

Sure, they eventually ground out a win, but it was more through sheer force than anything. Moving forward, Duke can't count on Boozer bullying his way through double teams and a massive offensive rebounding advantage to generate offense. They won't enjoy anywhere near the same sort of physical edge against Kansas, St. John's, UConn or Michigan State, all of which will have no problem sealing off the paint and forcing the Devils to shoot over them — and all of which will be more capable than Siena of punishing Duke in transition the other way.

So: What will Scheyer do to respond? Getting Ngongba back will help, but the loss of Foster has the potential to loom very, very large, and going up against the likes of Bill Self, Dan Hurley, Rick Pitino and Tom Izzo will test his tactical ability. If he can't figure out answers, Duke will learn very quickly that not even a talent like Boozer can save them.