I've been a fan of the North Carolina Tar Heels my entire life. I even went to school there, graduating in 2005. It's been a privileged existence to cheer for one of the blue bloods of college basketball — because with few exceptions, the Tar Heels have been really good, often great.
I remember being allowed to stay up late to see them beat Michigan for the 1993 title. I was in the Dean Dome as a senior in 2005, watching on an enormous projection screen with thousands of my fellow Heels as they knocked off Illinois to win another. I was back home in New York for the 2009 whooping of Michigan State, but back in the Dean Dome (as a permanent N.C. resident) for the win over Gonzaga in 2017.
The point is, Tar Heels like myself have grown used to success. In recent years, though, we've had to see how the other half lives.
Hubert Davis hasn't earned the benefit of the doubt at UNC
It's easy to forget now, but before that crazy 2022 run, the Heels were a major disappointment, squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble before getting hot, beating Duke in Cameron Indoor Stadium and Caleb Love'ing their way to the title game as an unlikely No. 8 seed. They began the following season ranked No. 1 in the country, then scuffled so badly through the year that they missed the Big Dance altogether. They turned it around the next year and earned a 1-seed, only to lose in the Sweet 16 to 4-seeded Alabama and the infuriating mustache of Grant Nelson.
UNC was a No. 11 seed last year, which amazingly is the only time in the program's long history that it's been a double-digit seed in March. They annihilated San Diego State in Dayton to escape the play-in, but then promptly lost to Ole Miss in the Round of 64 to put a bow on a season that was the definition of mediocre.
It's not a new thing for the fanbase to be grumbling about the job Hubert Davis has done, but it's a touchy subject. We'll always have that '22 run, and Hubert is a beloved alum, but the results just haven't been there. This year has been more of the same, as even with projected top-four NBA Draft pick Caleb Wilson in the fold, the Heels have been good but not great all year.
Hubert supporters have stats to point to, but they need to cherry-pick their data. Yes, he's the first coach in UNC history to register 20+ wins in each of his first five seasons, but that's less impressive when you consider where the program was when Dean Smith and Roy Williams took over. The Heels have beaten Kansas, Kentucky and Duke this year — the only time they've ever done that — but they've also lost to Stanford and Cal, among others.
Caleb Wilson, Henri Veesaar injuries threaten to expose Hubert Davis' shortcomings
Two players have led Carolina all year, but the problem right now is that neither one is healthy enough to play. Wilson has been everything he was advertised to be out of high school and more, bringing a combination of athleticism and competitiveness that the Heels haven't had in a long time. Wilson has a mature moveset and handle on the game that belies the fact that he's only 19 years old. He also leads the country in dunks and has been the school's biggest cheerleader, but he broke his hand in last week's loss to Miami and is out indefinitely.
Henri Veesaar is a transfer center from Arizona, and he's been just as vital to the Heels' success. Even as Wilson exploded in the first half against Duke, it was Veesaar's strong second-half turnaround that gave Carolina a chance to win at the end. For a team that was so undersized last year, Veesaar and his seven-foot post presence have allowed UNC to play that inside-out style they've so often preferred over the years. He's also been a surprisingly reliable 3-point shooter, easily the best one on the team, but he's missed the last two games with some kind of lower body injury.
Tuesday's loss to NC State showed just how badly UNC needs their two best players. The Heels were exposed in a rowdy environment, with the 82-58 final score barely doing justice to how lopsided this game was. It really was a nightmare of a game, especially against a rival, as Carolina couldn't throw the ball in the ocean from outside. They also got beaten badly in the turnover department, and they showed no ability to keep the Wolfpack out of the lane for easy buckets. In short, they looked completely overmatched.
Davis made no discernible adjustments as the game went on, and it just slipped further and further out of hand as a result. Yes, he was playing with a short deck, but is NC State that much more talented with Wilson and Veesaar on the bench, or is Will Wade just a better coach? Besides, this roster is a product of Hubert's making, as he lost Elliot Cadeau, Ian Jackson and Ven-Allen Lubin to the transfer portal.
The Lubin transfer hurts the most, because of all the places he could have gone, he went down the road to Raleigh. That's a statement in and of itself. Cadeau is averaging 5.5 assists per game at Michigan, the No. 1 team in the country, while Jackson is contributing on a red-hot St. John's team that's 13-1 in the Big East and just knocked off UConn.
Seth Trimble is the only returning contributor this year on the entire Carolina roster. Even in this age of the transfer portal, that's wild. While the Heels have for the most part stayed afloat this year with their new cast of characters, they've given no indication, even with the Duke win, that they're capable of making a serious run in March. Without Wilson and Veesaar, they're just another mediocre team, and even with them, it's doubtful that the Heels would be looking at better than a No. 6 or 7 seed in the tournament. It may sound entitled, but at Carolina, that's just not good enough.
Davis was a great shooter back in his playing days, but he's been unable to impart his wisdom on the roster as head coach. Carolina has been Brick City from outside with him at the helm, and they're not making up for it in other areas. They're near the very bottom of the nation in turnovers forced, and they weren't much better last year. Fast break points are down from the Roy Williams days, too.
He's presided over one great tournament run and one great regular season in four-plus years in charge. Will Wilson and Veesaar's eventual return turn the season around? Will top prospect Dylan Mingo's commitment this week bring about better results next year? As a Carolina fan who remembers all the good times, I always hope for the best, but given how things have gone lately, it's tough to be too optimistic. Adversity like this recent rash of injuries is exactly when a great coach would be able to do less with more, at least to keep things afloat. But Davis seems to be proving that without elite talent, he can't do much.