March Madness 2026 bracket predictions, picks for every game: Duke, Florida will fall short of Elite Eight

The odds of picking a perfect March Madness bracket are longer than being struck by lightning while being attacked by a shark, about 1 in 120 billion if you weigh the odds for having college basketball knowledge. To quote the great Lloyd Christmas, "So you're telling me there's a chance!" Just because it's near impossible to predict the perfect bracket, we're still going to try. And that's what we have here: picks and predictions for every game and round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament, including the national champion.

There will be upsets, including a blue blood and some new bloods going down early, there will be chaos, and there will be only one No. 1 seed reaching the Final Four. How will March Madness play out? It might not be a perfect bracket, but let's have the confidence to say it'll be damn close.

East Region March Madness predictions

First round picks

Upset alerts: Cal Baptist and South Florida take down Kansas, Louisville

While we do have the top seeds in Duke, UConn and Michigan State advancing, the No. 4-seeded Kansas Jayhawks aren't so lucky. It's been a bit of a tumultuous year in Lawrence, what with the Darryn Peterson drama and a generally up-and-down team for Bill Self this year. And for a program that's had an unfortunate habit of exiting March Madness early, that seems more than relevant when they now have to match up with the Cal Baptist Lancers and the fifth-highest scorer in the country, Dominique Daniels Jr. Everyone seems to be overlooking Cal Baptist, but I think they pull off the big first-round shock.

As for the other, I'm riding with what appears to be one of the chalky upsets for the first round with South Florida taking down Louisville. The Bulls and head coach Bryan Hodgson might have a chance in this one regardless, but with the Cardinals being without Mikel Brown Jr. for the Round of 64, I simply don't see Louisville having the firepower to hang with a balanced and deep offensive attack from USF in this game. Beyond those upsets, though, it's all the higher seeds moving on into the Round of 32 in the East Region.

Second round picks

Despite getting a couple of major upsets in the first round, that doesn't continue with spots in the Sweet 16 hanging in the balance.

At the top of the bracket, Ohio State has been one of the hotter teams in the country entering the NCAA Tournament, but I think that's why they get past TCU — not a reason why they're going to take down the Blue Devils and end Cam Boozer's March Madness run prematurely. Even with some of their injuries, I don't think the Buckeyes can take advantage of any weaknesses to the point where they get past Duke, even if the game could be close.

It's a similar story with UCLA, who has righted the ship, but still might not be on the level that UConn is — not to mention the NCAA Tournament success of Dan Hurley versus the up-and-down run of Mick Cronin. After the Cal Baptist and South Florida upsets, though, their cinderella dreams should come to a quick end against the St. John's defense and a fiery Michigan State team under Tom Izzo.

Sweet 16 picks

Duke goes down! There were times early in the season when it looked as if St. John's might not even make the tournament. But things change over the course of the year, and all the early struggles have done is keep the Red Storm as a No. 5 seed. Against the Blue Devils, though, if Duke's backcourt remains short-handed, St. John's has the frontcourt size and experience to pinch Boozer and where Duke will look for its success, if they can even attack through the Johnny's pressure. It just strikes me as an awful matchup for Jon Scheyer's team, and I don't think they make it past.

Meanwhile, the one thing I can't quite get past with Michigan State is their propensity to go cold from the field. And against a fiery UConn team that can score in bunches, that feels like it could end up being a major issue. I'm not quite sure the Huskies are national championship caliber this season, but I do think they are in a tier above the Spartans, which now sets up a tasty Big East Championship Game rematch.

Elite Eight pick: 5 St. John's vs. 2 UConn

And in that rematch, give me the Johnny's. The three-game series, including the Big East title game, between these two foes this season were all over the place. The Red Storm took two out of three and the conference crown, winning by a margin of 13 points. But UConn's win in Storrs was by a resounding 32 points. That feels like more of the outlier given the other results, however, and that's enough to make me think that St. John's makes good on its shot at redemption with Rick Pitino this tourney.

Predicted winner: St. John's

South Region March Madness predictions

First round picks

Hold off on the upsets in the South Region ... for now

Frankly, I just don't see the upset potential in the South Region that we do in the other three quadrants of the bracket. Maybe that comes back to bite me in a quite painful way, but the only lower seed I have advancing is Iowa and Bennett Stirtz at the No. 9 seed taking down Clemson in the 8-9 matchup. That, of course, is just about a coin-flip, so we're not going to write home about that.

But if you go down the rest of the South Region, where is another upset coming from? Florida will handle their matchup, as should Houston. Nebraska and Illinois should be able to score too well for Troy and Penn to keep up, and Saint Mary's is simply underseeded, and Vanderbilt might be too.

There are going to be plenty of people who pick VCU to take down North Carolina without Caleb Wilson and, you know, that's fair. However, despite the Rams being hot, the Tar Heels did finish the season quite strong overall without their star freshman, and should have enough to get by in this one, even if UNC's ceiling did undeniably crater with the news that Wilson won't return after another hand injury.

Second round picks

While North Carolina should still be able to get past VCU without Wilson, that's not the same story when they come up against Illinois. Between Keaton Wagler and the totality of the Fighting Illini offense, I simply don't see the paths to victory for UNC. Namely, there aren't too many worlds where they can score enough to keep pace with Brad Underwood's team in that game, the same of which is likely true for Florida and Iowa as the Gators should be able to get the slow-moving Hawkeyes completely out of their game and rhythm.

Beyond that, Saint Mary's-Houston has some real intrigue, but it feels to me as if Houston has too many answers. Kelvin Sampson's team has the trademark elite defense that should stifle the Gaels quite a bit with their athleticism, but this is also an improved offensive group from a year ago. And to round us out and move to the Sweet 16, Vanderbilt just has a bit more dynamism, particularly on offense, than Nebraska, which will push them through past what should be a close game.

Sweet 16 picks

Starting the Sweet 16, we have the defending champion Gators taking on a familiar SEC foe, Vanderbilt. The two teams split this season, with the Commodores falling in Nashville in a close one, but then getting revenge in the SEC Tournament with a blowout win over Florida. The baseline and steady level of Florida is higher than Vandy, but I think Vandy's ceiling behind Tyler Tanner is still higher. I'll take a swing at an upset with that volatility and take the Dores moving on.

And for the right to face Vanderbilt, Illinois-Houston could be one of the games of the NCAA Tournament. The Illini can score with anyone, but they also had a favorable draw to get to this point in the tourney. Houston also has the defensive prowess to at least slow the Illini down, as well. The Cougars are the superior team coming into the Big Dance in better form. I think they keep another run to the natty alive.

Elite Eight pick: 5 Vanderbilt vs. 2 Houston

The Cougars can now try to keep it even more alive and, spoiler, I think they do. Vanderbilt is so dangerous because of their ability, through Tanner and Duke Miles, to get the shot they want. Houston's defense is one of the units well-equipped to get the Commodores out of their comfort zone, and push the Vandy defense as well. Houston as a No. 2 seed is a misnomer that could lead people to forget they're clearly one of the best teams in college hoops — but they'll remind everyone with another Final Four run.

Predicted winner: Houston

West Region March Madness predictions

First round picks

Upset alert: High Point has Cinderella juice

We only have one true upset — again, I'm not considering No. 9 seed Utah State taking down No. 8 Villanova an actual upset — in the First Round for the West Region, but it's a doozie. Wisconsin has been labeled as one of the most potentially dangerous mid-tier seeds in the tournament with how they finished the year. But High Point is one of the highest-scoring teams in the country and can create turnovers with the best of them. With that and a team 3-point percentage of 35.6, I think the Panthers get the dreaded 12-5 upset, the only one of the tournament.

Miami-Missouri could get tight, though I trust the steadiness of the Hurricanes a bit more than I do with the Tigers, hence why Jai Lucas and Co. move on. And though I have Gonzaga advancing, watch out for the shorthanded Bulldogs against Kennesaw State. The Owls are a good team and, if the Zags continue to look somewhat out of sorts, they could potentially have a chance to pull off a stunner.

Second round picks

I had to warn you about Gonzaga in the first round because the Bulldogs aren't making it to the Sweet 16 again. While BYU has often fallen a bit short of expectations this year, AJ Dybantsa is the type of talent tailormade to become a March Madness legend. I think we see him truly take over in this game, especially with a weakened Zags frontcourt, to pull off a second round upset. Arizona will avoid such a fate, though, as I simply don't think Utah State has the horses to run with the Wildcats.

High Point could definitely give Arkansas and John Calipari a scare with their offensive prowess, but I do think Darius Acuff, much like Dybantsa, has enough star in him to carry the Hogs through an upset bid unscathed. That won't be the case for Purdue. This feels like all the trappings of a Boilermakers team that will exit the tournament much earlier than expected, and Miami has the balanced scoring with Malik Reneau and Tre Donaldson to pull out such an upset.

Sweet 16 picks

Not only do I believe that Acuff and Arkansas can survive an upset bid in the Round of 32, I think they can pull off one of their own to take down the No. 1-seeded Wildcats. Beyond just Acuff's ability to singlehandedly take over a game, I also believe that the Razorbacks winning five straight matters and isn't an aberration. They're hitting their stride, and against an Arizona team that's deep, balanced, and battle-tested, I think we get a dogfight, but I'm taking Acuff to be the one to lift his team to the victory.

The flip side of that, while I love Miami's upside, it pales in comparison to Dybantsa and BYU. Again, this is a Cougars team that has looked capable of far more than the heights they reached throughout the regular season. Time and again in the NCAA Tournament, we've seen teams of a similar ilk — but perhaps without a game-changer the level of Dybantsa — make a run. I think BYU is the prime candidate to do that in 2026.

Elite Eight pick: 6 BYU vs. 4 Arkansas

No, seriously — I'm sticking my neck out with BYU. First off, getting Dybantsa vs. Acuff is just a college basketball fan's dream. Maybe the two best players in the country who aren't at Duke squaring off for a spot in the Final Four? Sign us all up. But the Cougars and Dybantsa in particular should have enough of their way with a leaky Arkansas defense and frontcourt to keep the run going to the Final Four.

Predicted winner: BYU

Midwest Region March Madness predictions

First round picks

Upset alert: Tennessee and Alabama go down

The Alabama situation with Aden Holloway has me scared of the Crimson Tide, a team that I already was dubious about trusting in March. Hofstra has a backcourt in Cruz Davis and Preston Edmead that can hang with the pace and scoring for Nate Oats' team, and they have the size on the interior to make some difference on the glass. While I'm projecting Miami-Ohio through the First Four, I think Tennessee could be taken down by either them or SMU.

We're all chalk for the rest of the first round in the Midwest Region, but I do want to say that Georgia-Saint Louis is going to be must-watch TV on Thursday night. These are two offense-first and fast-paced teams. This game legitimately might be a race to 100 points, which should make for a truly thrilling Round of 64 game.

Second round picks

One more big upset coming for the Midwest Region as Miami-Ohio not only validates themselves with a First Four win and then a Round of 64 win, but they come out and give Virginia the boot with a big upset and a ticket punched to the Sweet 16. The Redhawks offense can get hot enough to cause the Cavaliers some problems, and this Virginia team has the look of one that can have problems when dealing with the pace of a Top 50 team in that category.

Upsets won't be on the menu anywhere else, though. Texas Tech is still good enough without Toppin to dispatch Hofstra, while Iowa State is just too sure of a hand to think that Kentucky can rise up and get the win in that matchup. That might be the most true, however, with Michigan. While Georgia's pace and offensive upside should have the Wolverines' attention, they have the balance and the bodies to stifle the Dawgs and win handily.

Sweet 16 picks

If the Red Raiders had Toppin, I might give them more of a chance to take down the top-seeded Wolverines in the Midwest Region. Without him, though, I just don't see the ceiling for Texas Tech in the same realm as Michigan's. Dusty May's team can beat you on every level of the floor and on both ends. I think they just give the Red Raiders death by 1,000 papercuts in this one until they lose by double digits while feeling like they had a chance the whole time.

Speak of one-sided, Miami-Ohio's run is only going to go but so far. Iowa State has too many athletes and too many ways to attack on the offensive side of the ball for the Redhawks to be able to keep pace

Elite Eight pick: 2 Iowa State vs. 1 Michigan

Michigan knows that turnovers against Iowa State and the Cyclones' offense could hurt them. Having said that, I think the Wolverines and May go into this matchup with the right gameplan and the defense to put the clamps on ISU and end their run in this tournament. Iowa State can't match the interior presence for Michigan, and it just feels like one team, the Wolverines, is simply better than the other in this matchup.

Predicted winner: Michigan

Final Four picks and predictions

5 St. John's vs. 2 Houston

We might not get out of the 120s for the total of this game, which is a testament to two of the best defenses in college hoops squaring off. At the same time, the one major advantage for Houston in this matchup is that the offense is less prone to going ice-cold. That doesn't mean it's impossible, especially against the Red Storm defense. At the same time, I trust Kingston Fleming and Co. to be able to find their way to the bottom of the net better than Ejiofor and Hopkins.

Predicted Winner: Houston

6 BYU vs. 1 Michigan

Is BYU going all the way to the national championship? Not when Michigan stands in their path. Point blank, I trust Michigan more than any team in the country. Their ability to play inside out and defend in the same manner gives them almost a sort of matchup immunity. The Wolverines can play in any style of game and come out on top. That doesn't mean they're infallible, of course, and Dybantsa is a player who can be an equalizer for Michigan. But I don't see him being able to do enough to accomplish that, pushing the Wolverines through to the natty.

Predicted Winner: Michigan

National Championship pick

2 Houston vs. 1 Michigan

Give me Michigan. Again, this team isn't perfect, but I do think they have the ability to win in multiple ways, and that includes grinding one out against Houston. The Wolverines have the versatility to be able to poke and prod at the Cougars defense and simply take what's there. To be sure, that won't be much with how daunting this defense is, but it'll be enough while Houston finds its own troubles with scoring. It'll be more of a rockfight than a shootout to cut down the nets, but you're not going to move me off of Michigan.

Predicted National Champion: Michigan Wolverines