We're down to the nittygritty of March Madness, where Cinderellas give way to contenders. But what makes a contender? According to KenPom, it's simple: S-tier defense and A-tier offense. Since KenPom was founded 30 years ago, every single NCAA Tournament champion has fit into one box. They've been top 15 in defensive efficiency and top 40 in offensive efficiency. Every single one.
For the Sweet 16 and beyond, that means there are only so many teams that can actually win the title. At least without breaking the rule.
KenPom ratings for all Sweet 16 teams
Team Rank | Net Rating | Off Rank | Def Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
1. Michigan | +37.82 | 6 | 2 |
1. Arizona | +37.82 | 4 | 3 |
3. Duke | +37.80 | 7 | 1 |
4. Houston | +34.42 | 10 | 4 |
5. Illinois | +33.26 | 2 | 24 |
6. Iowa State | +32.97 | 17 | 5 |
7. Purdue | +31.81 | 1 | 33 |
8. Michigan State | +28.97 | 22 | 13 |
9. UConn | +28.34 | 30 | 11 |
10. Alabama | +27.32 | 3 | 60 |
11. Nebraska | +27.15 | 51 | 6 |
12. Tennessee | +26.88 | 31 | 14 |
13. St. John's | +26.78 | 41 | 8 |
14. Arkansas | +25.83 | 5 | 53 |
15. Iowa | +23.39 | 25 | 31 |
16. Texas | +20.22 | 15 | 81 |
The Sweet 16 teams that meet KenPom national title benchmarks
- Michigan
- Arizona
- Duke
- Houston
- Illinois
- Iowa State
- Michigan State
- UConn
- Tennessee
Coming into the tournament, there were only 11 teams who met the KenPom benchmarks. Only two of them didn't make it out of the first weekend. Florida, Gonzaga and Virginia each lost in the second round. The Gators and Zags suffered upsets to the closest thing we have to Cinderellas this year: Iowa and Texas. The Cavaliers fell to Tennessee, a KenPom contender.
So if 11 entered and three left, how are there nine contenders? Well, Illinois improved their defensive rating during the tournament, rising to 24th in efficiency. That puts them on the board, if only just.
How many KenPom contenders can make the Elite Eight or Final Four?
No more than six of the nine teams can make it to the Elite Eight. Illinois plays Houston, Michigan State plays UConn and Tennessee plays Iowa State. Each of those games will knock out at KenPom contender. Arizona, Duke and Michigan will each face a team (Arkansas, St. John's, Alabama, respectively) that doesn't meet the benchmarks.
As for the Final Four, we are not guaranteed any contenders in the semifinals. St. John's could emerge from the East. Any of Purdue, Arkansas or Texas could crash the party from the West. Nebraska or Iowa can advance from the South. Alabama could make it through the Midwest.
Teams with the chance to break the KenPom rule
The KenPom rule isn't hard and fast. It's an observation of what winning teams look like: Defense wins championships but your offense still has to be good enough to hang. Someday, some team will inevitably break the rule. This year, there are a couple of teams who just missed the benchmark but still have the bone structure of a contender.
Close enough
- Purdue
- Nebraska
- St. John's
Purdue has the nation's top offense, which could be just enough to make up for their 33rd-rated defense. On the opposite side of the spectrum, Nebraska's sixth-rated defense could bridge that gap on their 51st-ranked offense.
St. John's is particularly intriguing because they're literally one spot away from qualifying for the contenders. Ranked 41st in offense and eighth in defense, they very much fit the profile. Plus, they've got Rick Pitino, a two-time champion, at the helm.
Wildcards
- Alabama
- Arkansas
- Iowa
- Texas
Let's just be honest, Iowa and Texas are our stand-in Cinderellas this year and either winning the title would be an extreme outlier.
It's a bit different for Alabama and Arkansas. The Crimson Tide's offense has been a buzzsaw all season. Even without Aden Holloway, Nate Oats' team has put up points. If they got scorching hot, their leaky defense could be besides the point.
Then there's John Calipari's Arkansas. The Razorbacks rank 53rd in defense, well out of the normal title-winning range...but it's John Calipari. I just wouldn't count him out.