The 2026 NCAA Tournament is here, and Cinderella is hoping to make its return to the dance after a one-year absence. Last year's edition of March Madness was surprisingly light on drama, with only two true mid-majors (Drake and McNeese) winning first-round games and Arkansas being the only double-digit seed to reach the Sweet 16.
That could foreshadow a new normal in the NIL era, as early odds for this year's first-round games seem to hint that we might be left wanting again in the upset department: All four No. 5 seeds (Texas Tech, Wisconsin, St. John's and Vanderbilt) are favored by at least 7.5 points over their No. 12, and the lines get even uglier with No. 4s over No. 13s (all favored by at least 13.5 points) and No. 3s over No. 14s (all favored by at least 16.5 points). Still, anything is possible in a single-elimination tournament, and there are still potential upsets to be found if you know where to look.
Let's go region by region and highlight some potential upsets worth calling in your bracket ahead of the start of the first round on Thursday afternoon.
Potential March Madness upsets: East Region
No. 12 Northern Iowa over No. 5 St. John's
The Big East champs were one of the biggest losers on Selection Sunday, with St. John's sweep of the league's regular-season and tournament crowns rewarded with a 3,000-mile flight to San Diego for a first-round matchup on Friday. The draw is also tricky, as the Red Storm have to tangle with Missouri Valley champ Northern Iowa — possibly the most dangerous team on the No. 12 line thanks to a strong defense that allows only 61.3 points per game.
The Panthers also like to take the air out of the basketball, playing at the 363rd-ranked tempo in the nation according to KenPom, limiting possessions as they look to manufacture good shots. The Red Storm lack a true point guard, which could be an issue against Northern Iowa's attacking defense, making this game a closer call than its large spread would indicate.
No. 11 South Florida over No. 6 Louisville
The best team in the American all year, South Florida is a very underrated squad that got a favorable first-round draw in Louisville. The Cardinals have been inconsistent all season long due in part to the health of star freshman Mikel Brown Jr., who's missed a lot of time (including the team's ACC Tournament loss to Miami) due to injuries throughout the campaign.
The Bulls like to run and gun, averaging 87.7 points per game, and are a well-balanced team that has all five starters averaging at least 11.1 points. Rebounding could also swing the game for South Florida, which ranks eighth in the country with 42.7 boards per game. If Bryan Hodgson's team can create second-chance opportunities against a Louisville team that likes to play small, watch out.
Potential March Madness upsets: West Region
No. 11 NC State or No. 11 Texas over No. 6 BYU
We'll go back to the 6-11 games in the West Region here, as both NC State and Texas (who will meet in the First Four in Dayton on Tuesday night) are capable of picking off an inconsistent BYU team in the Round of 64. The Cougars struggled to beat elite competition all season long and have not been the same since losing star guard Richie Saunders for the season in mid-February, dropping five of their final nine games.
The Wolfpack have a proven tournament coach in Will Wade who can get his team ready quickly for the challenge of slowing down future top-three pick A.J. Dybantsa and Rob Wright. And if Texas advances instead, the Horns can counter with an explosive offense that has won big games all year in the SEC, making either ripe to spring an upset on Thursday.
No. 10 Missouri over No. 7 Miami
One of the true wild cards in the West Region is Miami, which overachieved in the ACC but didn't do anything of note in the non-conference. An unbalanced conference schedule meant the Hurricanes didn't play Duke at all, and they beat a grand total of just four tournament teams all season — all of which came in ACC play, and none of which wound up higher than a No. 6 seed.
Getting an SEC-tested Missouri team in a de facto home game for the Tigers, whose campus is just under three and a half hours away from the Enterprise Center in St. Louis, is not an ideal environment for a Hurricanes squad light on tournament experience. Tigers lead guard Mark Mitchell has plenty of NCAA Tournament experience between his time at Duke and Missouri, making him a potential game-wrecker in a contest that should be heavily slanted towards the lower seed in terms of crowd support.
Potential March Madness upsets: Midwest Region
No. 13 Hofstra over No. 4 Alabama
The first 13-over-4 upset we're calling here comes in the Midwest Region, where Hofstra has a legitimate chance to pull a stunner over Alabama. The Crimson Tide are dealing with an unnecessary distraction after guard Aden Holloway, the team's second-leading scorer, was arrested on a marijuana possession charge over the weekend that could open the door for a plucky Hofstra group.
The Pride have a dynamic backcourt duo between Cruz Davis (who played two years under Rick Pitino between St. John's and Iona) and freshman Preston Edmead that can get buckets at will. Speedy Claxton's group also has some serious size for a mid-major with 7-footer Silas Sunday and 6-foot-10 Victory Onuetu, allowing them to crash the glass and create second-chance looks. Hofstra earned road wins at Pitt and Syracuse in non-conference play while losing by just four at UCF, so they will not be afraid of the challenge here.
No. 10 Santa Clara over No. 7 Kentucky
This has been a strange year for Kentucky, which has just two players scoring double figures (Otega Oweh and Denzel Aberdeen) and doesn't have a true point guard after Jaland Lowe went down with a shoulder injury in January. The Wildcats are also not the most athletic group, which could leave them vulnerable to getting picked off by a battle-tested Santa Clara team that has length all over its roster.
The Broncos are making their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1996 and have shown their ability to beat tournament-caliber competition all year, winning twice against Saint Mary's and playing Gonzaga close in all three meetings. Coach Herb Sendek also has plenty of March experience from previous stops at NC State and Arizona State, so he will have a good game plan cooked up to end Mark Pope's second year in Lexington in the Round of 64.
Potential March Madness upsets: South Region
No. 12 McNeese over No. 5 Vanderbilt
The Commodores weren't happy with their seeding on Selection Sunday, feeling that their run to the SEC title game on the heels of a strong regular season merited more respect than a No. 5. Adding injury to that insult is a tough No. 12 seed in McNeese, which won a tournament game a year ago and forced 10.5 steals a game this year — ranking second in the country behind fellow No.12 High Point.
The Cowboys' aggressive and attacking style on defense leads to extra possessions, which in turn leads to more chances for buckets for Larry Johnson and company. A quick turnaround to get ready for that style of defense will be tricky for the Commodores, who weren't exactly playing great down the stretch before their SEC Tournament run.
No. 11 VCU over No. 6 North Carolina
The Rams needed to win the A-10 title game to get into the field as selection committee chair Keith Gill revealed they would not have earned an at-large bid. But regardless, the surge that VCU had down the stretch makes them a real problem for North Carolina, which is still trying to regroup after losing star freshman Caleb Wilson for the season with a broken thumb in late February.
Having a partisan crowd of Tar Heel faithful in Greenville should help Hubert Davis' team, but VCU has been white-hot for months, winning 13 of their final 14 games to punch their ticket to the dance. With an empasis on rebounding the basketball (the Rams are No. 36 in the country in that department), VCU will be able to counter North Carolina's strong front line and send the Tar Heels out on Thursday night.