Cinderella and upsets have been a staple of March Madness for years, but the glass slipper has become an elusive item to track down these days. After only five double-digit seeds won their first-round games in 2025, that number dipped to just four this year, which would be the lowest amount of carnage in the tournament in 19 years.
Two of those four double-digit seeds were power conference bubble teams and a third was perennial A-10 entrant VCU, leaving High Point as the one true Cinderella story out there. Friday was a particularly bleak day for those seeking drama as all 16 betting favorites won, marking the first time since 1992 that happened.
Looks like we’re gonna get a total of 4 double digit seeds in the round of 32
— Nick Bateman (CBB guru) (@nickbateman33) March 21, 2026
- High Point (12)
- VCU (11)
- Texas (11)
- Texas A&M (10)
Would be the lowest total since 2007
5 total - ‘25, ‘23, ‘17, ‘15
6 total - ‘18, ‘11, ‘08
7 total - ‘22, ‘14
8 total - ‘24, ‘19, ‘13, ‘10,…
There have been a number of close calls, including 16-seed Siena making Duke sweat for 35 minutes while Furman and Wright State hung tough for most of their games before falling short at the end. Wisconsin was the only team in the top 5 seed lines to lose and we have now gone two consecutive tournaments without a team seeded 13 or below winning a game.
That run of dominance from the top 16 teams in the field has never happened since the field expanded to 64 teams back in 1985. Part of the problem is likely tied to the transfer portal and NIL, allowing the top teams in the nation to amass the most talent, largely at the expense of mid-major programs.
Most of the previous Cinderellas relied on either some combination of elite skill, such as hot shooting, or a collection of experience to overwhelm a younger power conference opponent. The days of talented mid-major players staying with their schools for all four years are long gone since most of those players either get recruited up or follow their coach to a new destination.
Is Cinderella truly dead in March Madness?
The performance of mid-majors in the past few tournaments hasn't been terrible but the results haven't come through at the rate they used to. Fans were spoiled seeing three straight 15-seeds win tournament games between 2021 and 2023, highlighted by Saint Peter's Elite Eight run in 2022, but a lot of high-caliber mid-majors either got bad draws in the tournament or played poorly in their one shot.
The NET system has also stacked the deck against mid-majors, making it harder for a team that plays outside the power conferences or the top mid-major leagues (like the Atlantic 10 or WCC) to earn an at-large. Miami of Ohio went 31-0 in the regular season and ended up in the First Four. High Point, which won 30 games during the regular season, was not going to get an at-large bid if they didn't win the Big South's auto bid.
The RPI, which had its flaws, was certainly skewed to a point that mid-majors could game it to improve their numbers. The NET, on the other hand, relies on quality of opponent and where games are played, rewarding power conference teams that simply show up to play in league games. Take a look at this comparison between where some prominent mid-majors and bubble teams fared in the NET as opposed to the RPI, which is still calculated but not used as an official metric by the NCAA.
Team | NET | RPI |
|---|---|---|
Miami (OH) | 64 | 33 |
VCU | 43 | 26 |
Santa Clara | 40 | 24 |
Akron | 54 | 32 |
Texas | 42 | 89 |
Texas A&M | 44 | 69 |
Iowa | 27 | 58 |
Georgia | 33 | 51 |
When the NET is the primary metric used to sort teams, it prioritizes the power conference teams for the final at-large spots. Many of those teams underachieved throughout the regular season but are clogging spots in the First Four or the final at-larges, contributing to the lack of drama early in the tournament.
Winning basketball games is a skill and teams don't win 30 games by accident, as Miami and High Point showed. Perhaps skewing away from rewarding teams like SMU and giving at-large opportunities to teams like Belmont (26-6), UNC Wilmington (27-6), Liberty (26-7) and Navy (26-8) could help Cinderella get her groove back.
For every NC State that can go on a Final Four run from the 11-seed, there are plenty of power conference teams that win a game and go out with that kind of resume. Giving teams that win a lot of games but trip up in their conference tournaments more legitimate at-large consideration (even if it comes from First Four spots) could restore some sense of magic to the tournament.
Since the odds of that appear unlikely, perhaps college basketball needs to reconsider how it markets the tournament going forward. Hyping up upsets and Cinderella stories when only four double-digit seeds make it to the Round of 32 is a tough sell for casual fans who check into March Madness hoping to see magic that may not exist anymore.