At this point, everyone knows who the five main contenders for the women's college basketball title are, because it's the five teams with betting odds of +1200 or better. After LSU at +1200, the next team in DraftKings odds is Vanderbilt down at +4000. Clearly, those odds suggest there's a cliff there as far as expectations go.
But one team below that cliff with a really good shot to walk away with at least a Final Four berth is Michigan. The Wolverines currently sit at 18-3 on the season and, notably, have come closer than anyone to knocking off No. 1 UConn.
Michigan has shown it can be competitive in big spots
That UConn game is a great place to start when talking about this Michigan team. Yes, the Wolverines ultimately lost that game, but the closeness of the contest has to be discussed, because even coming close against UConn means something.
That game, held back on Nov. 21, saw UConn beat Michigan 72-69. A few facts about that score: UConn's 72 points are the fewest it has scored this season, and Michigan's 69 points are the most that the Huskies hav allowed. It should come as no surprise, then, that the three-point margin of victory is the smallest for UConn all season. In fact, it's the only UConn game that's been decided by single digits.
Overall, Michigan has now played six games against teams with a top 30 Her Hoop Stats rating. The team is 4-2 in those games, losing by a combined six points. Yes, its loss to Vanderbilt was also by three points. It also, coincidentally, happened to be a 72-69 loss, because of course it was. Michigan has come exactly the same distance from upsetting a team ranked above it twice.
(Michigan's other loss is to Washington. That game was played on New Year's Day and came right after a double-overtime win over Oregon. Not to excuse it or anything, but I think context probably matters a bit here.)
We'll get to see if those losses have helped Michigan learn how to beat elite teams on Sunday as the Wolverines will face Michigan State. By HHS rating, the Spartans are better than any team that Michigan has defeated, so it will be a crucial test to show if Michigan has what it takes to be a true contender.
Olivia Olson is one of the nation's most underrated scorers
Okay, so why has Michigan been so good? Well, the sophomore duo of Olivia Olson and Syla Swords has been a huge part of that. Let's talk about Olson's play.
PPG | STL | PER | On Court Net Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Olivia Olson | 18.5 | 1.9 | 30.1 | +36.4 |
Syla Swords | 13.6 | 1.9 | 19.7 | +35.5 |
Michigan's leading scorer has struggled a bit with her efficiency this season, but her 18.5 points per game rank in the top 50 nationally while her 54.3 percent mark from inside the arc ranks in the top 100. While she needs to improve her 3-point consistency, her ability to score inside has been crucial. She shoots 53.3 percent on non-rim paint attempts, which is 15.3 percent better than the Division I average, and she's even shooting a solid 30.8 percent on above-the-break 3s. It's just that a 1-for-12 mark on corner 3s has skewed her overall shooting numbers a bit.
Olivia. Olson.#GoBlue pic.twitter.com/RupQ6kosVs
— Michigan Women’s Basketball (@umichwbball) January 25, 2026
The 6-foot-1 Olson is able to impact the game in a variety of ways. She can put the ball on the floor and find her shot, but she's also adept at moving off the ball and positioning herself in good spots to get relatively easy looks. This makes her a bit of a nightmare to defend. Add in Swords and Mila Holloway as additional scoring threats who prevent teams from selling out on Olson and you get a tough team to stop on that end.
Defense has fueled this performance
As good as Michigan's offense has been, its defense has been just as good, even if raw numbers don't suggest that. It's true that Michigan ranks sixth in points per game but just 82nd in points allowed per game, but if we adjust for pace, we get a different story. The Wolverines are 11th in both offensive and defensive rating while limiting opponents to the 18th-fewest points per play and ranking 20th in both steals per game and steal rate.
This is a great example of judging a team on a per-play basis instead of judging overall performance. Because the Wolverines play fast, they create additional opportunities for their opponents, which naturally leads to higher scores against them. But as long as the team keeps creating turnovers and forcing tough shots on each play, it comes out ahead, even if it's not a top 50 scoring defense overall.
It also doesn't help the raw numbers to have played so many good offenses so far. UConn and Vanderbilt, obviously, but the double-overtime game against Oregon skews things a bit as well. Overall, I'd call this a strong defense, one that's capable of slowing down opponents in big games enough to give the offense a viable shot to win every game.