Why Miami (OH), college basketball's lone undefeated team, still isn't getting respect

Miami (OH) is the only undefeated team in college basketball. In a historic season for the RedHawks, they’re also ranked inside the top 25. They’re also a projected No. 11 seed in the NCAA Tournament, per Joe Lunardi’s latest bracketology. It feels like a contradiction for Miami to be undefeated, yet ranked so low in both the AP poll and bracketology projection, right? Well not necessarily. 

See Miami (OH), for as good as this season has been, really isn’t that good. A glance at their KenPom rankings would force you to scroll a third of the way down the page just to find them. Their NET rankings paint an even worse picture. Miami (OH) isn’t getting the respect they deserve because they’ve played a lot of bad teams. Even with a weak schedule, they don’t look that great either. 

It probably won’t get any better for the RedHawks since the Mid-American Conference is horrible. Which means Miami (OH) is at their own mercy. One slip up and their historic season was all for naught. 

Miami (OH)’s KenPom rankings show why RedHawks aren’t respected this season

Looking at Miami (OH)’s schedule, you wouldn’t tell that they’re not an efficient team. They’re ranked 63 in offensive rating and 144th in defensive rating, per KenPom. Overall, they’re ranked No. 83 in KenPom rankings. KenPom and NET rankings are two of the strongest advanced analytics that rank teams outside of the AP poll rankings. 

The NET is fairly new, but KenPom has been one of the leading sources to evaluate a team and predict what they’ll do in the NCAA Tournament based on how they looked during the season. Miami’s 24-0 record looks great, KenPom shows you why it’s not as appealing as you think. 

According to KenPom, Miami’s strength of schedule is ranked 312, with their opposing teams offensive rating ranked 278 and defense ranked 346. That’s not good at all, and considering some of the close wins they’ve had, Miami’s squad isn’t as good as you think. Part of why it took so long for Miami to get ranked and why they aren’t moving up despite continuing to win is their wins aren’t that great. 

They’re best win is against Akron, who’s ranked 64 in KenPom rankings and 59th in the NET rankings. That isn’t exactly demanding a higher ranking. 

What Miami (OH)’s NET rankings says about their NCAA Tournament potential

The NET rankings has its critics, but in essence, it gives you a glimpse of what wins and losses actually mean. Road wins are boosted while home wins still matter. Teams are split into four quadrants, with Quad 1 wins your best and Quad 4 wins your worst. For Miami, they haven’t played a single Quad 1 opponent. That alone tells you everything you need to know about Miami’s season so far. 

They’ve played two Quad 2 teams and won, but then again, not great opponents – wins over Wright State and Akron. It’s hard to take a team seriously that’s simply winning the games they’re supposed to. Miami’s case is unique in that the NET rankings benefit the smaller schools that play a packed non-conference schedule. 

Honestly, Miami would probably still need a conference championship win to get into the NCAA Tournament. As long as Miami loses in the MAC title game, I could see two MAC teams getting into the NCAA Tournament, but that’s the only way. 

Miami controls their destiny and all the advanced rankings and analytics show they’re not all they’re hyped up to be. That said, it could certainly be worse. Miami (OH) doesn’t have the resume to lose anymore. Unfortunately, their undefeated season is the only thing that will keep them in contention for a spot in the NCAA Tournament.

Every other metric proves why one loss will implode their season at the wrong time.

More college basketball news and analysis