When does it stop being a coincidence? I have long wondered why North Carolina does not develop the NBA talent of arch rival Duke. It may have something to do with the two schools' previous head coaches, Roy Williams and Mike Krzyzewski, and their respective stances on the one-and-done era. Williams was never about it, while Coach K later embraced it and won national titles. Years later, it is still the same.
Now that Jon Scheyer and Hubert Davis lead their respective alma maters, these same set of circumstances remain. Duke is expected to have the No. 1 overall player taken in the 2025 NBA Draft in Cooper Flagg. If this does come to fruition, he would be Duke's fourth No. 1 overall pick since 2011. Over the last 15 years, Duke has seen Kyrie Irving, Zion Williamson and Paolo Banchero all go with the top pick.
But that is not even the biggest issue here. If we look at the last 19 NBA Drafts, not a single UNC player has gone in the top five. The last two to do it were Marvin Williams to the Atlanta Hawks and Raymond Felton to the then-Charlotte Bobcats at No. 2 and No. 5 respectively in 2005. Those picks came fresh off North Carolina's national title victory over Illinois in year two under Williams at UNC.
Matt Norlander looked at the data and is stunned to see how poorly UNC has done in the NBA Draft.
North Carolina hasn't had a top-five pick in 20 years. There are many variables that led to this, but broadly speaking, that's just a shocking drought for a top-three program in the history of the sport—and a school w/ two nat'l titles and five F4s in that span. https://t.co/LSB1RNLzUQ
— Matt Norlander (@MattNorlander) June 24, 2025
The fact that the Tar Heels have won two additional national titles since the 2005 season despite that draft drought has our heads spinning.
Why are the North Carolina Tar Heels so bad at getting their guys picked?
In the years since the 2005 national championship run, UNC has won two more national titles (2009, 2017), been the national runner-up twice (2016, 2022) and been to five Final Fours (2008-09, 2016-17, 2022). And I think that last little nugget might be where our answer lies: When the Tar Heels first make it to a Final Four, they seem to make it back the next year more likely than not.
For a program as storied and as steeped in tradition as North Carolina basketball is, when they win big, they usually do it with the same core who has experience playing together. They are just not interested in doing one-and-done. Their upperclassmen-heavy teams can occasionally master the college game, but the players playing it are not what you would consider major NBA Draft prospects.
This has not always been the case. I mean, NBA legends like Michael Jordan, James Worthy, Vince Carter, Rasheed Wallace and Antawn Jamison all starred here back in the day. There is a formula that works at North Carolina, but it leaves a head coach like Davis who is lacking some level of equity a bit exposed. Williams did extraordinary things leading another traditional power for years with Kansas; he commanded respect the minute he arrived back in Chapel Hill.
While I think this team-building method is conducive to players building deep relationships with the fan base and continuity on the court, it can backfire on the head coach and his reputation. In a way, it kind of indicates that there is a definite ceiling when it comes to what this UNC program can do under Davis. They can win big, but it has to look a certain way. When it comes to other teams who get their high-end players drafted, they can lean on them and win.
This is not strictly a Davis problem, but one that seems to hold North Carolina basketball back a bit.