Predicting every conference tournament champion with March Madness auto-bids on the line

While most fans are eagerly anticipating the start of the NCAA Tournament with Selection Sunday, you can't forget that Champ Week offers even more wall-to-wall basketball with tickets to dance on the line.

With a pitiful bubble and bid thieves lurking, there will be high drama throughout the country as the 32 automatic bids to March Madness are wrapped up, leaving the Selection Committee 36 at-large spots to fill out the field of 68. While there is high drama in traditional one-bid leagues, making any championship game worth a watch if you have time, there are 9 leagues that will shape the field the most by Selection Sunday: the Power 4 (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC), Big East, Atlantic 10, Mountain West, WCC and the MAC thanks to the Miami of Ohio drama. Let's dive into a quick preview of what's on the line in each tournament and who will cut down the nets to secure their league's automatic bid.

ACC

• Dates: March 10-14
• Location: Charlotte, NC
• Venue: Spectrum Center
• Top Seed: Duke
• Tournament Locks: Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Miami, Louisville, Clemson
• Bubble Teams: NC State, SMU, Virginia Tech, California, Stanford
• How To Watch: ESPN Family Of Networks

The ACC has some teams fighting things out on the bubble, with NC State and SMU drafting slightly ahead of the rest of the league's bubble outfits, but the tournament's outlook was shaken up by the two key injuries Duke suffered in their final regular season game. Patrick Ngbonga II didn't play against North Carolina while Caleb Foster left the game early, with both exiting the arena in walking boots as Jon Scheyer cast doubt on their availability for the ACC Tournament.

The Blue Devils are certainly deep enough to win without them, but if Scheyer is correctly prioritizing his team's chances of winning a national championship they may not be deep enough to win three games in three days. There are too many good teams here for a bid thief to really take hold, but Miami is playing good basketball right now and will look at this tournament as an opportunity to significantly improve their seeding ahead of Selection Sunday.

Prediction: Miami

Atlantic 10

• Dates: March 11-15
• Location: Pittsburgh, PA
• Venue: PPG Paints Arena
• Top Seed: Saint Louis
• Tournament Lock: Saint Louis
• Bubble Teams: VCU, Dayton
• How To Watch: USA (Rounds 1-2, 3 QF), CNBC (QF), CBS Sports Network (SF), CBS (Final)

The A-10 is a league that bubble teams will be sweating over until Selection Sunday. Saint Louis is a tourament lock but has been stumbling down the stretch, losing three of their final six games to Rhode Island, Dayton and George Mason. The latter two teams are both on the Billikens' side of the bracket, with high odds Saint Louis will draw one in the semifinals, and if they get upset again it would open the door for a bid thief on Selection Sunday.

The other side of the bracket is a much safer draw for VCU, which is on the right side of the bubble after a strong finish to the regular season, but that draw comes with peril as a loss before the tournament final could add a bad defeat to a bubbly resume. The good thing for Rams backers is that VCU has largely taken care of business all season and that should be the case again in Pittsburgh.

Prediction: VCU

Big 12

• Dates: March 10-14
• Location: Kansas City, MO
• Venue: T-Mobile Center
• Top Seed: Arizona
• Tournament Locks: Arizona, Houston, Texas Tech, Kansas, Iowa State, UCF, BYU
• Bubble Teams: TCU, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Oklahoma State
• How To Watch: ESPN Family Of Networks

The fancy LED court that can be electronically programmed will be a new look for the Big 12 tournament but the basketball in Kansas City should be top notch. There isn't a ton of bubble intrigue as TCU feels pretty safe while it would take a lot for Cincinnati or West Virginia to earn a bid, meaning the stakes are set for high impact basketball that will impact the top lines of the NCAA Tournament.

Kansas is a wild card if they can figure out how to unlock the best of Darryn Peterson, who has been playing more minutes to mixed results, while Houston hasn't truly held its own against the league's top competition al season. This pick is a bit boring but Arizona is one of the three best teams of the country and has a reasonable path to the final, making them the choice here.

Prediction: Arizona

Big East

• Dates: March 11-14
• Location: New York, NY
• Venue: Madison Square Garden
• Top Seed: St. John's
• Tournament Locks: St. John's, UCONN, Villanova
• Bubble Team: Seton Hall
• How To Watch: Peacock/NBC Sports Network (1st Round/Quarterfinal Day Session), FS1 (QF Night Session/Semifinal 2), FOX (Semifinal 1/Final)

This is another league with bid thief potential as St. John's and UCONN, the top two seeds, have had their share of struggles down the stretch. The Huskies' loss to Marquette dropped them down to the 2 line, where they could be staring at a rematch with the Golden Eagles in the quarterfinals on Thursday night.

The real drama could come from Seton Hall, which has played close against the top teams in the league but fallen short each time, but it is tough to see them getting the job done against both UCONN and St. John's. In the end, Rick Pitino's Red Storm are playing the best basketball right now and need the tournament crown the most to bolster their odds of getting a Top-4 seed on Selection Sunday.

Prediction: St. John's

Big Ten

• Dates: March 10-15
• Location: Chicago, IL
• Venue: United Center
• Top Seed: Michigan
• Tournament Locks: Michigan, Illinois, Nebraska, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Iowa
• Bubble Teams: UCLA, Ohio State, Indiana, USC
• How To Watch: Peacock/NBC Sports Network (Rounds 1-2), Big Ten Network (Round 2-QF), CBS (Semifinals/Final)

All eyes will be on Michigan, which is one of the top three seeds in the projected NCAA Tournament but has a brutal draw in Chicago. Landing Iowa or Ohio State in the quarterfinals, followed by Illinois or Wisconsin in the semis (if chalk holds), is a tough road for a team trying to adjust its rotations after losing key reserve L.J. Cason following a torn ACL.

You could make a case for at least 6 teams to win this tournament but we'll go with Illinois, which has the offensive firepower to keep up with Michigan and should have plenty of crowd support in Chicago. The Fighting Illini have a star who can take over the tournament in point guard Keaton Wagler, a future NBA lottery pick, and they will ride him to the Big Ten's auto bid.

Prediction: Illinois

MAC

• Dates: March 12-14
• Location: Cleveland, OH
• Venue: Rocket Arena
• Top Seed: Miami (OH)
• Tournament Lock: Miami (OH)
• Bubble Team: Akron
• How To Watch: ESPN+ (Quarterfinals), CBS Sports Network (Semifinals), ESPN2 (Final)

All eyes on the bubble will be on Cleveland from Thursday-Saturday as prospective bubblers are hoping that Miami of Ohio can extend their perfect run through Cleveland to keep the MAC a one-bid league. Despite plenty of speculation from power conference supporters that a weak schedule means the Redhawks will need to win the MAC's auto bid to dance, there is no chance the NCAA's Selection Committee will turn away a team that won all 31 of its regular season games.

The drama comes from the fact that the Redhawks aren't even favored to win the MAC as they have to deal with a pretty good 2-seed in Akron, who went to the NCAA Tournament last year and only lost to Miami by three on the Redhawks' home floor. The Zips will be the more desperate outfit since their bubble odds are slim and steal the bid, popping someone's bubble a day before the tournament.

Prediction: Akron

Mountain West

• Dates: March 11-14
• Location: Paradise, NV
• Venue: Thomas & Mack Center
• Top Seed: Utah State
• Tournament Lock: Utah State
• Bubble Teams: New Mexico, San Diego State, Grand Canyon, Nevada
• How To Watch: Mountain West Network (First Round), CBS Sports Network (Quarterfinals/Semifinals), CBS (Final)

The final year of the Mountain West in its present form has been a bit of a downer as the league that sent six teams dancing in 2024 may end up with just one if Utah State can win the league's auto bid. The Aggies are the lone lock in the field thanks to a strong regular season but they are not infallible as they have lost road games to Grand Canyon and Nevada while getting swept by 16-15 UNLV, who they could see for a third time in the quarterfinals.

The desperation factor points to someone other than Utah State claiming the league's auto bid and we'll go with San Diego State here. Predictive metrics are very high on the Aztecs, who just beat the Aggies in late February, and they will come through to secure a second bid for the Mountain West with a title.

Prediction: San Diego State

SEC

• Dates: March 11-15
• Location: Nashville, TN
• Venue: Bridgestone Arena
• Top Seed: Florida
• Tournament Locks: Florida, Alabama, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri
• Bubble Teams: Georgia, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma, Auburn
• How To Watch: SEC Network (1st Round-Quarterfinals), ESPN (Quarterfinals-Final)

The early story in the SEC Tournament will concern its bubble teams, particularly 16-15 Auburn, which is a 12-seed that would need to win five games in five days to secure the auto bid to dance. Head coach Steven Pearl has argued that his team's resume stacks up with anyone's in the country, but no team has ever been given an at-large with 16 losses, which the Tigers will have unless they win the tournament.

Even though the draw isn't ideal for Florida, whose first game could come against a Missouri team that beat them back in January, few teams in the country are playing better basketball than the reigning national champions. The Gators are in a dogfight with UCONN for the final No. 1 seed right now and sweeping the SEC's regular season and tournament crowns will help them get it.

Prediction: Florida

WCC

• Dates: March 5-10
• Location: Paradise, NV
• Venue: Orleans Arena
• Top Seed: Gonzaga
• Tournament Locks: Gonzaga, Saint Mary's
• Bubble Team: Santa Clara
• How To Watch: ESPN2 (Saint Mary's-Santa Clara Semifinal), ESPN (Gonzaga-Oregon State Semifinal, Final)

The WCC's tournament is well underway thanks to its unusual bracket set up designed to protect its top teams, with Gonzaga and Saint Mary's earning byes all the way until the semifinals. Those games are set for tonight with the Bulldogs taking on Oregon State while Saint Mary's looks to win its rubber match with Santa Clara, which is most likely in the field of 68 now but will want to earn a win over the Gaels to fully secure their spot.

Whoever comes through that game will run into a tough Gonzaga group that is motivated to win the tournament after some questions have been raised about how good the Bulldogs actually are. Expect Gonzaga to take care of business in their final year as a WCC member before moving to the new-look Pac-12 in the fall.

Prediction: Gonzaga

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