Conference play is just around the corner in women's college basketball. This can be a tough time of year to really get a sense of which teams are good, since non-conference schedules tend to be very unbalanced. For example, undefeated Texas has wins over UCLA and South Carolina. Undefeated LSU has yet to play a Top 25 team.
But even if we haven't seen, for example, Arizona State play too many good teams, we can start to get a sense of how good some of these lower-end power conference teams are just from analyzing the numbers, which can also give us a sense of which teams are cruising to the NCAA Tournament and which might not have postseason opportunities in its future.
Here are the predictions for who is solidly in, who is on the right side of the bubble and who is out for the NCAA Tournament.
ACC: Eight
In: North Carolina, Notre Dame, Louisville, Stanford, NC State
It's been a rough year for the ACC, but these five teams should be good to go. NC State is a bit of a question based on non-conference, but I largely trust the Wolfpack can turn things around once conference play arrives.
Bubble: Miami, Virginia, Syracuse
If the ACC as a whole keeps struggling, these three teams might be able to keep their heads above the water, beating up on the bottom of the conference and sneaking in. That's assuming some of the usual suspects like Georgia Tech, Duke and Virginia Tech keep struggling.
Just missing: Virginia Tech, Duke, Wake Forest
Can Duke turn things around? I'm not betting on it because the 4-6 Blue Devils have dug themselves a huge hole, but there's talent on this roster. I wouldn't be shocked to see Duke win its way into March Madness with an ACC Tournament title, which would change some of the math here and potentially kick out Virginia or Syracuse.
Big Ten: 12
In: UCLA, Michigan, Maryland, Iowa, USC, Ohio State, Washington, Nebraska, Michigan State, Illinois
The Big Ten is very, very good this season. The last three teams listed should be in based on how well they've played in non-conference, but the gauntlet of Big Ten play should claim one of them as a victim.
Bubble: Oregon, Minnesota
These teams are on the bubble for very different reasons. For Minnesota, it's because three non-conference losses give the team little margin for error. For Oregon, it's because the team's 10-0 non-conference record could be an illusion, considering the only power conference team it played was Auburn.
Just missing: Indiana
The Big Ten is very deep, which is probably bad news for Indiana. In another conference, this team might have a shot, but in the Big Ten, the Hoosiers are likely going to lose too many games, as evidenced by what happened in the conference opener against Illinois: a 78-57 Illini win.
Big 12: Seven
In: TCU, Iowa State, Baylor, Oklahoma State, West Virginia
I don't think anyone will argue with any of these as locks. All four teams are currently ranked and should dominate most of their conference games against a Big 12 that falls off fairly quickly after this top tier.
Bubble: Texas Tech, Arizona State
Two teams that haven't been very good lately, but that are both having very good runs to start the year. Both are flawed — I'm not sure I trust Arizona State's offense or Texas Tech to maintain its level of play when the games get tougher — but have built a solid non-conference cushion and should be able to eke out enough wins against the bottom half of the Big 12.
Just missing: BYU, Kansas, Arizona
You could probably swap Arizona State and BYU and no one would blink an eye. I just think the Sun Devils have the coaching edge, which will matter during Big 12 play.
Big East: Two
In: UConn, Villanova
Is the Big East even a power conference at this point? UConn's return to it was hailed as a chance to compete at a higher level than it had been in the American, but instead, the Huskies have just dominated the conference.
Bubble: None
I debated having Villanova on the bubble, because the team isn't at the same level as UConn, but the Wildcats have an impressive non-conference win over West Virginia and should run through all their non-UConn Big East opponents.
Just missing: Seton Hall, St. John's
Seton Hall will certainly have a chance depending on how conference play goes, but its non-conference numbers haven't done it any favors, losing to all three potential tournament teams it faced.
SEC: 11
In: Texas, South Carolina, LSU, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama
No surprises here, except for maybe Alabama, which isn't ranked in the Top 25 but is 10-0 with wins over Clemson and Minnesota. The Tide could drop closer to the bubble, but the other eight are locked in, barring a complete meltdown in conference play.
Bubble: Georgia, Mississippi State,
The question here is just if these teams can maintain their current level of performance in conference play. Georgia is probably more likely to than Mississippi State, but both should be able to sneak their way in.
Just missing: Texas A&M, Florida
At this point, the SEC is so competitive that it's going to come down to a handful of games to determine these final spots. Texas A&M has only played seven games so far and lost to UT Arlington, which might be enough t doom them, especially if they lose their last big non-conference test against West Virginia. Florida's loss to Navy likewise looks like something that the committee could look very poorly on.