Chalk ruled the day in the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, but it was not as dominating a force as we saw a year ago. Top overall seed Duke looked rather wobbly in its first two games while four of the top 16 seeds (Florida from the top line, 3-seeds Virginia and Gonzaga, and 4-seed Kansas) failed to reach the Sweet 16.
Arguments can be made for nearly every team left in the dance to cut down the nets in Indianapolis, which is a good sign for the health of the sport in the NIL era. How do the Sweet 16 stack up if we were to re-seed the field today?
1. Michigan Wolverines
It felt like there was never a doubt with Michigan, which cruised past 16-seed Howard and absolutely obliterated a quality Saint Louis team to get to the second weekend. Time has allowed Dusty May to adjust his rotations to compensate for the loss of backup point guard L.J. Cason, which has led him to lean more on the Wolverines' big front line to be a matchup problem. The path the Wolverines have in front of them is also the easiest for any top contender (Alabama and the winner of Iowa State-Tennessee), giving them an excellent shot to get to the Final Four while they are in top form.
2. Houston Cougars
Fewer teams are in a stronger position than Houston, which faced nearly no resistance in their first two wins over Idaho and Texas A&M. The Cougars also won by making it to the regional, which is being played at the Toyota Center, just 20 minutes from Houston's campus. Having de facto home games in this round will be a huge help for Kelvin Sampson's team as they deal with a trio of Big Ten squads standing in their way for the Final Four.
3. Arizona Wildcats
The top three on this list really separated themselves from the pack and Arizona withstood a strong challenge from Utah State on Sunday night. That kind of effort is a good test for the Wildcats, who stared potential elimination in the face before Jaden Bradley helped Tommy Lloyd's team pull away late. Drawing Arkansas and star Darius Acuff in the Sweet 16 is a challenge but Arizona's depth will be key to their chances of advancing.
4. Illinois Fighting Illini
There was little attention paid to Illinois in the first weekend but those backing them in the Final Four have to be thrilled by what they saw. The Fighting Illini rode an explosive offense to blowouts of Penn and VCU, which had tripped up North Carolina in the first round, and are now well-positioned to make a Final Four run. Playing what is essentially a true road game in Houston is a problem but if Illinois can get past that spot they would be heavily favored to reach the Final Four.
5. Duke Blue Devils
It was not great to see a five-man Siena group nearly take the Blue Devils down in the first round and Duke's struggles most of the day against TCU are a cause for concern in the stacked East Region. The positive here is that the Blue Devils got back big man Patrick Ngongba II on Sunday and he should be more of a factor in the Sweet 16 onwards. Duke matches up well with St. John's and should get past them to reach the Elite Eight, where they will have a much stiffer test against either UCONN or Michigan State.
6. Iowa State Cyclones
The on-court performance we saw from Iowa State was fantastic as they trounced Tennessee State before bludgeoning Kentucky after the break on Sunday. The problem for the Cyclones is that they have questions about the availability of star Joshua Jefferson, who missed the Wildcats' game with a sprained ankle he suffered in the first round. Jefferson is a true glue guy for Iowa State and they need him healthy to have a shot at taking down Michigan in the Elite Eight.
7. Arkansas Razorbacks
Few teams are hotter than Arkansas right now, which has gone 12-2 since the start of February and is riding a seven-game winning streak into this contest. That surge has coincided with a big leap from star guard Darius Acuff Jr, who has begun to push towards the top of NBA Draft boards by putting the Razorbacks on his back in March. Acuff will have to be a game-wrecker to help Arkansas get by a deeper Arizona group but if they escape that game they would be favored to reach the Final Four.
8. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Fred Hoiberg may have a statue built for him in Lincoln if he can keep Nebraska's greatest season rolling. The Cornhuskers now own two NCAA Tournament wins and are favored to get past Iowa and reach the Elite Eight, where they will be underdogs against whoever emerges from the Houston-Illinois matchup. An elite offense gives Nebraska a shot in that game and they are here due to a favorable path to at least play for a Final Four spot.
9. Michigan State Spartans
It was a rather uneventful weekend for Michigan State, which cruised in the first round and were never seriously threatened by a Louisville team minus Mikel Brown Jr in the Round of 32. The Spartans play like a typical Tom Izzo team, defending ruggedly and crashing the glass, and point guard Jeremy Fears Jr can win games by himself. A lack of perimeter shooting hurt them in the regular season and they will need more from Kur Teng and company if they hope to escape the loaded East Region.
10. UConn Huskies
The malaise surrounding UConn appeared to hang around when they struggled to slip by Furman on Friday but Alex Karaban's heroics got them through to the Sweet 16. Few teams in the country have the upside the Huskies do when clicking, as evidenced by their strong non-conference wins, but that form hasn't been present very often since January. The draw with Michigan State is going to be a challenge for UConn, which struggled mightily against physical defensive teams this season.
11. Purdue Boilermakers
A favorable draw certainly helped Purdue get to the second weekend and their veteran-laden group is well-equipped to advance in March. Getting the only double-digit seed remaining also enhances the odds the Boilermakers get to the Elite Eight, but they would likely be a significant underdog against the Arizona-Arkansas winner. Matt Painter's group needs its perimeter shooting prowess to stick if they hope to get back to the Final Four for the second time in three years.
12. St. John's Red Storm
We saw how good St. John's can be when they demolished a trendy Cinderella pick in Northern Iowa in the first round. Sunday's game against Kansas was more concerning as the Jayhawks essentially dared the Red Storm to beat them from deep, which led Rick Pitino's group to chuck up way too many threes for a team that can't shoot. Duke has the kind of front line that will make it hard for Zuby Ejiofor to feast down low and more offensive firepower than Kansas, which is a bad recipe for the Red Storm to get further than this.
13. Alabama Crimson Tide
The loss of Aden Holloway didn't seem to matter much for Alabama, which put up 90 points in each of its first two NCAA Tournament games. It doesn't seem like Holloway will be back any time soon, which is a problem when the Crimson Tide draw Michigan in the Sweet 16. The Wolverines have a significant size advantage in that game, which could make life difficult for Alabama here.
14. Tennessee Volunteers
The Volunteers are a dangerous team this far down the board thanks to a hot shooting run from Ja'Kobi Gillespie and the presence of future NBA lottery pick Nate Ament. Injuries have been an issue for Ament, who has been hobbled down the stretch with various ailments, and Tennessee needs him healthy to have a chance to advance. If Iowa State doesn't have Jefferson for their matchup there is a good shot the Vols are back in the Elite Eight with a chance to stare down Michigan for a trip to the Final Four.
15. Iowa Hawkeyes
Ben McCollum wins everywhere he goes but his finest work at the D-I level came on Sunday night, when his Hawkeyes took down the reigning national champs to become the sixth Big Ten team to reach the second weekend. It is tough to see how far the Hawkeyes will go since they were average in the regular season and won a rock fight with Clemson to get to the second round. A rivalry matchup with Nebraska in the Sweet 16, however, should give Iowa plenty of juice on Thursday night.
16. Texas Longhorns
Sean Miller has done a good job in his first year at Texas, becoming just the sixth team to go from the First Four to the Sweet 16 in tournament history. The Longhorns took down three strong teams (NC State, BYU and Gonzaga) to get here, but they are clearly the weakest roster from a talent perspective. Facing an experienced Purdue group in the Sweet 16 does Texas no favors as well, making them one of the few teams here that is a true dark horse to reach the Final Four.