From buzzer-beaters to blowouts, the first two rounds of Women's March Madness lived up to the hype. We witnessed history as No. 10 Virginia became the first play-in team to make the Sweet 16 during the NCAA women's tournament. The Hoos weren't the only ones to pull off an upset in the second round. Notre Dame and Kentucky also snuck past their higher-seeded opponents.
While the No. 1 seeds are seemingly unstoppable, is there any possibility one of them doesn't make it to the Final Four? We're gonna take you through the potential upsets you could see in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight rounds of the 2026 Women's March Madness tourney.
No. 6 Notre Dame over No. 2 Vanderbilt
I'll be honest: when Ohio State started its second-round matchup against Notre Dame with an 11-0 run, I thought the Fighting Irish might be staring at a rough four quarters. I was wrong. There is no guard quite like Hannah Hidalgo in all of women's basketball. Notre Dame ultimately pulled off the upset over the No. 3 Buckeyes — with lots of thanks to Hidalgo's 26 points, 13 rebounds and 8 steals.
Now, they will face No. 2 Vanderbilt — and I believe we could see them do it again. These are two teams that live and die by their stars. This matchup will truly come down to Mikayla Blakes and Hannah Hidalgo. I've been saying this since the last game of the regular season, but Notre Dame is playing its best basketball right now — its seed and overall record don't reflect this team's potential.
Vanderbilt is a strong offensive team; they rank eighth in the nation in points, averaging 84.9 per game. Mikayla Blakes leads the nation, averaging 27 points per game. But on the other hand, Notre Dame's defense is top-tier. They rank ninth in the nation in steals, averaging 13.3 per game — Hidalgo is responsible for 5.6 of those per game. Their defense will need to be paramount if they want a spot in the Elite Eight.
The Commodores are a versatile group. To keep up, the Fighting Irish will not only need to have Hannah Hidalgo run loose, but also the three-point shooting of Iyana Moore and Vanessa de Jesus. Cassandre Prosper also showed out during the Ohio State upset — that energy will have to continue.
No. 3 Louisville over No. 2 Michigan
The Louisville Cardinals survived a close second-round matchup against No. 6 Alabama. Michigan had a bit of a different experience getting to the Sweet 16, as they defeated No. 7 by a 29-point margin. Michigan has one of the best duos in the country in sophomores Olivia Olsen and Syla Swords. Olsen averages 19.2 points to Swords' 14.8 per game.
My reasoning behind listing this match as a potential upset here is a combination of a couple of different factors. Louisville has depth; they have seven players averaging 8.0+ points per game. Michigan has its two main pillars in Olsen and Swords, which will get them far — Louisville will have to find a way to slow one or both of those Wolverines down and rely on their depth to move the ball around, getting shots from everyone.
Louisville is an efficient squad. They're shooting 46.1 percent from the floor on the season. Against Alabama, the team shot 45 percent from the field. They will need to continue to shoot well against Michigan, especially because the Wolverines have some sharpshooters themselves — Olsen and Swords both shoot over 30 percent from 3, as does Mila Holloway.
Michigan is 0-4 against Louisville. The most recent matchup between the two ended in Louisville sending Michigan home in the 2022 Elite Eight.
No. 10 Virginia over No. 3 TCU
Virginia has already made it this far. What's one more? This upset will be tough for the Cavaliers to pull off, but we've seen crazier things happen in March. As I mentioned, with their second-round victory over No. 2 Iowa, they became the first-ever play-in team to make it to the Sweet 16 in the women's tournament. The energy is on their side.
Iowa was no small feat — the game went into double overtime. Virginia junior Kymora Johnson played all 50 minutes and recorded 28 points and 4 assists. Her starting teammates, Paris Clark and Romi Levy, showed out as well. Senior Caitlin Weimar put up 12 points and 8 rebounds off the bench.
It was a group effort in the second round, and that must continue into the Sweet 16. Especially against Olivia Miles. Miles put up 18 points and 10 rebounds in the second round against Washington. Clara Silva had 16 points, and Taylor Bigby put up 15. TCU barely slipped past Washington, with a 62-59 victory.
To keep their Cinderella story going, Virginia will have to get by TCU's defensive efforts, which have been fairly good all season. They'll need to slow down Olivia Miles, which could be tough, so capitalizing off her mistakes will be crucial. Kymora Johnson will have to keep doing what she's been doing all season — they'll need another top-tier performance from her.
Elite Eight upset: No. 2 LSU over No. 1 UCLA
LSU has looked like a top contender through the first two rounds. The only problem: The Tigers have to get through Lauren Betts and UCLA for a spot in the Final Four. Assuming both of these squads make it to the Elite Eight, which is not necessarily a given for either. But if they do, there's a great possibility that this matchup would be the best of the entire tournament.
LSU leads the nation in points, averaging 95.3 per game. This was capitalized on in the first two rounds as they defeated Jacksonville by a score of 116-58 and Texas Tech by a score of 101-47. Their offensive efficiency is elite; they're shooting 50.9 percent from the floor this season.
The Tigers also might come into this Elite Eight with a bit of vengeance. The Bruins sent them home during this round of the 2025 Women's NCAA Tournament. UCLA has been dominant again all season, record-wise, you'd assume they're the better team and maybe they are. They have a very experienced group right now, who are all showing up. Lauren Betts, Gianna Kneepkens, Gabriela Jaquez and Kiki Rice are all averaging 10+ points per game.
On the other hand, LSU's trio of guards — Flau'Jae Johnson, Milaysia Fulwiley and Mikaylah Williams — are all averaging 14+ points per game. This upset would be massive for LSU, and I think there's a real possibility they can get it done. All the stars will have to show out for this one, which would make it quite the show for us fans.