When this women's college basketball season began, it appeared we had a four-team race for the national title between UConn, South Carolina, UCLA and Texas. Maybe LSU as well. Some people were high on Duke. I thought Oklahoma could be in the mix, but I'm not feeling great about that thought anymore.
Now, it's mid-December, and the four/maybe-five team race for the national title instead looks like a two-horse race between UConn and Texas. Both teams have been thwarted every challenge they've faced, including Texas picking up wins over both South Carolina and UCLA. The latest result for both teams were blowout wins over Top 25 teams this past weekend, as UConn made light work of USC and Texas easily defeated former conference foe Baylor.
Let's talk about what makes these two teams so good and then try to figure out which one should be viewed as the biggest favorite going forward.
UConn's dominant start to the season
UConn looks about as close as a team can look to unbeatable at this point. The Huskies have really only looked even semi-mortal once this season, winning a close one against a very good Michigan team back in November. That three-point win is the only game this season that's been within single digits. Meanwhile, the season-opening 13-point win over Louisville was the only other win by fewer than 28 points.
That 28-point win? It happened Saturday against USC. Yes, the JuJu Watkins-less Trojans are a flawed team, but they still have wins over Washington and NC State this season, so they aren't pushovers. But the Huskies just took it to them, using a 15-0 run and later a 14-0 run to put the game out of reach.
UConn has the sixth-best net rating in the nation while ranking in the top 50 in opponent average win percentage. Essentially, UConn is playing a fairly tough schedule but keeps winning games.
There are two obvious reasons why this is the case: Azzi Fudd and Sarah Strong. Fudd is shooting 53.1 percent from 3-point range, while Strong leads the Big East in 2-point field goal percentage and is getting Naismith hype. Getting that kind of efficient play from your two stars gives UConn a major edge, and the supporting cast has done its job as well, though it all comes back to Strong and Fudd — the Huskies have a net rating of +63.8 when the two share the floor, making them one of the nation's top duos.
Texas keeps getting big wins
The Texas star duo of Madison Booker and Rori Harmon might not have the name recognition of the UConn duo, but the Horns have been almost as good with the two on the floor, posting a +48.2 net rating so far this season.
Something to note about those numbers and why they're worse than the UConn number, even though they're still very good numbers: strength of schedule. Texas has a lower opponent average win percentage than UConn, but the Horns have faced both South Carolina and UCLA, two teams that rank in the top five in Her Hoop Stats rating. Overall, Texas has played (and defeated) six teams that are in the top 50 in that metric. UConn has played five such teams, but only one top 10 team.
Texas has been successful because the team has been very efficient overall on offense while also playing high-level defense. The Horns are 13th in the nation in effective field goal percentage while ranking in the top 20 in both steal and block rate.
Which team is THE favorite at this point?
What Texas has done has been impressive, but it's hard to deny that the defending national champions still look like the best team in college basketball.
The issue, as far as a head-to-head matchup goes, is that I trust UConn to figure out how to slow down Texas, but I don't know if I trust Texas to slow down UConn. The Huskies can beat you in so many ways — if one of Fudd or Strong is having an off night, there's still a chance that KK Arnold, Ashlynn Shade or Serah Williams can step up.
Texas has other options, of course. Jordan Le has been especially good as a secondary scorer, while Kyla Oldacre, Justice Carlton and Breya Cunningham are average in double figures as well. The problem is those players aren't as battle-tested as UConn's players. It's easier to trust a Huskies team that contains three starts from last year's national championship squad.