Every job is different, as every program wants different things. For some college football programs, they want to contend for national titles. Others just want to make the College Football Playoff on occasion. There are also teams that would like to win and hope to not get embarrassed on fall Saturdays. It is important to know a program's expectations it has for itself before taking any job.
Initially, this post was supposed to focus on primarily third-year head coaches who have been given the benefit of the doubt for some reason, despite not achieving anything close to on-field success in their first two years. I was able to kick it out to fourth-year head coaches, meaning guys who have been in the role since in 2022 are also included. If your team made a hire then or in 2023, watch out!
Look. I think a lot of these coaches are going to end up proving me and other doubters wrong this season. Simply put, there are not enough high-quality candidates out there to effectively replace any and all of them, so be careful what you wish for... I will say that if any of these 10 head coaches were to have a no good, very bad season, it may cost them their jobs, regardless of what they are being paid.
Let's start with a guy who left one blue-blood for another, but has not lived up to lofty expectations.
10. LSU Tigers head coach Brian Kelly
This will be Brian Kelly's fourth season leading the LSU Tigers. While he has had them ranked mostly inside the top 25 during his first three years in Baton Rouge, can he take the Bayou Bengals a bit further? Offense has not been the issue for LSU since he took over for Ed Orgeron in 2022. Kelly's side of the ball has been able to hold its own. The biggest concern has to be the state of its defense.
Any time LSU has been great throughout my lifetime, the Tigers have had either a good to fantastic defense. Kelly was able to poach Blake Baker away from Missouri last offseason, but the defense still leaked like a sieve. While I am okay with some people putting LSU into the College Football Playoff picture right now, I am not sure another three-loss year is going to cut it for Kelly with LSU's standard.
Factor in how good his Notre Dame successor has looked in Marcus Freeman, maybe Kelly regrets it?
9. Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier
Billy Napier might have his quarterback of the present and future in D.J. Lagway, but last year was last year, and this is now. The Florida Gators enter this season with one of the toughest schedules in the country. While he needed to coach well down the stretch to keep his job a year ago, it could be more of the same in Gainesville in year four for him. What happens if this team does not win eight games?
While I do not think athletic director Scott Stricklin is going to make him wear it for a slightly above .500 season, some of these losses cannot be of Napier's own doing. He gets the unfortunate nickname of Sun Belt Billy at times because he will make questionable decisions when the game is on the line to totally knock Florida out of it. He has to outgrow this or the Gators could look elsewhere...
If push comes to shove, Florida will side with Lagway's high upside over Napier's growth as a coach.
8. Oklahoma Sooners head coach Brent Venables
Brent Venables is in a similar bucket to that of Billy Napier at Florida. Oklahoma faces one of the most challenging schedules in the country this fall. While Venables knows his side of the ball quite well, the Sooners' offense cannot be pedestrian again, even if it is a new cast of characters vibrantly part of it. Oklahoma has to become a more balanced team if the Sooners want to make headway in the SEC.
Where this gets complicated is Venables' boss in long-time athletic director Joe Castiglione is stepping down, or aside, at the end of the academic year. He is the one who hired Venables and gave him a massive, undeserved extension ahead of last year. This may keep Venables in his role for a fifth year beyond this one. However, he cannot be the reason Castiglione cannot hire a quality successor.
Oklahoma needs to be closer to an eight-or-nine-win team than a six-win one for Venables to be safe.
7. Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Matt Rhule
This is year three for Matt Rhule at Nebraska, meaning one of two things happens. Either he will experience the proverbial Matt Rhule pop year like he did at Baylor and Temple before that, or he will get fired mid-season like he did leading the Carolina Panthers in 2022. Since this is college football, I think he and the Cornhuskers are going to be just fine. However, he needs to not become Scott Frost.
If Rhule can get Nebraska back to playing like it did at peak Bo Pelini levels, then that should be the new standard for the Huskers. If they can win 10 games during the regular season, then they will have a realistic shot at being the fourth Big Ten team to make the playoff in a given year. Much of the team's success will ride on quarterback Dylan Raiola growing in Dana Holgorsen's offensive system.
I may be quite bullish on Nebraska for this season, but the Huskers need to win around eight games.
6. Wisconsin Badgers head coach Luke Fickell
I hated the hire when it happened. I may have been in the extreme minority when it came to panning Luke Fickell leaving Cincinnati for Wisconsin, but what have we seen so far that leads us to believe it is ultimately going to work out in the end? The defensive-minded coach is trying to run an Air Raid offense in Madison, which not only runs counter to Wisconsin's weather, but the team's very ethos.
I could not care less that he got an extension or whatnot. He has not been as advertised leading the Badgers. The only team I am more down on in the Big Ten right now is Maryland. He may not be as cooked as Mike Locksley appears to be in College Park, but if year three is another disaster for Fickell, then maybe he will need to go back to the Group of Five to reinvent himself once again?
Unless Billy Edwards Jr. is better than Russell Wilson, or even Scott Tolzien, I do not see it happening.
5. USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley
It is year four, but we are still relatively new into the working relationship between new-ish USC athletic director Jennifer Cohen and head coach Lincoln Riley. Every year has been worse under his guidance. While Jayden Maiava may be able to extinguish some of the fires bound to pop up in and around the USC program, they must hire a head coach who believes in defense and running the ball.
Although Riley's Air Raid offshoot does do a good job of empowering its running game, I will always give him credit for that, I feel he has lost the plot at USC, especially since they joined the Big Ten. There are wins to be had on the schedule, but he may need to hit what I think the Trojans' ceiling is for this season, which is 9-3, rather than hovering around .500 for the third year in a row in Los Angeles.
Riley has quickly devolved USC into the Texas Tech of old, while Joey McGuire's Texas Tech is rising.
4. Virginia Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott
Tony Elliott was one of the two head coaches that inspired me to kick this out to fourth-year head coaches, and not just those entering year three. The former Clemson offensive coordinator left his alma mater to take over for Bronco Mendenhall at Virginia. While he did a remarkable job of navigating an unforeseen tragedy at the end of year one, the Hoos really need to be pushing for a bowl game.
They were close last year, but no cigar. Losing in Commonwealth last season kept them out. Although the Hokies have had the Cavaliers' number for the better part of the 21st century, I think it will be hard to give Elliott a fifth year on the job if he goes 0-for-4 in Commonwealth and 0-for-5 in getting the Hoos to a bowl game. I am rooting for him so hard to get that sixth win, but it might not be coming...
Not every job is the same, but Elliott has had enough time to put his stamp on the Virginia program.
3. Cincinnati Bearcats head coach Scott Satterfield
We are approaching Tommy Tuberville levels of "Go Home" and "Get a Job" territory with Scott Satterfield at Cincinnati. While I do not think it will work out for his predecessor Luke Fickell at Wisconsin, Satterfield is playing the part of a deadbeat dad who bails on his family every five years to start a new one. He left Louisville in disarray, only for one of their own in Jeff Brohm to fix it right away.
While there is some talent on the Bearcats' roster, it is not enough to really make any headway in the ultra-competitive Big 12. During his first two years on the job, Satterfield was unable to get UC to a bowl game. If he is unable to get to the six-win threshold, the Cincinnati needs to move on and hire somebody else who will actually recruit Ohio like UC should. Not everyone can play at Ohio State...
What we are looking at is a head coach who refuses to evolve, one who is all about posturing instead.
2. Virginia Tech Hokies head coach Brent Pry
In time, we may truly come to realize that Frank Beamer was doing the lord's work in Blacksburg. Brent Pry is entering year four at the helm of the Virginia Tech program. Not only has it not gotten better since the fleeting moments of success under his predecessor Justin Fuente, but the Hokies have devolved into being a completely anonymous football team. This is the team Michael Vick starred for!
I am not saying they need to hire Vick this upcoming offseason, but the Hokies cannot be this listless under Pry for very much longer. Yes, they have gotten to bowl games the last two years, but without wins over arch rival Virginia in Commonwealth, where would they be? Furthermore, Pry was hired to recruit the Tidewater Region of Virginia like he did at Penn State previously. Others have lapped him.
Maybe the Penn State defensive coordinator role runs itself? Look at Manny Diaz and Tom Allen now!
1. Auburn Tigers head coach Hugh Freeze
It has to be Hugh Freeze. It was questionable ethically to hire Freeze away from Liberty after what all transpired at Ole Miss under his watch previously. The guy can coach, I will give him that. However, this Auburn, a program where you should be contending for championships every other year or so. Auburn was desperate and hired him anyway. Nobody outside of Auburn wants to see him succeed.
Factor in that he seems to care more about his golf game than his players should have you very concerned about year three for Freeze leading the Tigers. He has hit the transfer portal so hard. I understand that Bryan Harsin left him a very bare cupboard ahead of his first season on the recruiting trails. That being said, I think we are about done blaming Harsin for all of Freeze's struggles at Auburn.
Nobody needs to win at least eight games this season more so than the Auburn head football coach.