Week 1 of the 2025-26 college football season is right there in front of us! We can almost taste it! One of the many reasons we love this sport so much is that anything, and everything, can happen on any given Saturday. Upsets and all sorts of unexpected outcomes are bound to happen because, at the end of the day, these are 18- to 23-year-olds going at it with the best friends they are ever going to have.
So what I am getting at is there will be teams we are all certain are going to win this weekend that are going to come up painfully short. No, I am not talking about Notre Dame falling at home to Northern Illinois, or Ole Miss getting thwarted by Kentucky. These games I am about to unpack are of the variety where I think the favored team has a chance at potentially getting upset by the underdog.
I looked at all the games on the schedule for Week 1 over on ESPN. By using ESPNBet, I found 10 games that have my intrigue in that regard. No, I am not saying all 10 of these favored teams are going to succumb to defeat, only that an upset loss could potentially happen here. Again, we have the whole season ahead of us, so anything, and everything, can happen. We are all well-served to give it time.
Here are 10 games from Week 1 where I think the favored team has a chance of going down.
10. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-4) at Colorado Buffaloes
Friday, Aug. 29 (Folsom Field, Boulder, CO; 8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN)
The first game I have on here is a matchup of the two national champions from 1990. I am sure there are college football fans who have looked back in the annals of history and cannot possibly believe that the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and the Colorado Buffaloes once split a national title. What a time to be alive! More importantly, this is a non-conference game to be really excited about.
After being down in the dumps until only a few years ago, Georgia Tech might be good enough to lose to rival Clemson in Charlotte for the ACC Championship. Colorado won nine games last year under Deion Sanders. While I like the Yellow Jackets far more this season than I do the Buffaloes, this game is in Boulder. It will be in the final days of August and it will be in altitude. An upset could be had here.
I have a hard time seeing Kaidon Salter outplaying Haynes King, but far crazier things have happened.
9. No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide (-13.5) at Florida State Seminoles
Saturday, Aug. 30 (Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL; 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
I am only including Alabama on here because the gap between the Crimson Tide and the Florida State Seminoles is not going to be as wide as it was a year ago. While I am not ruling out the possiblity that Alabama covers the 13.5-point spread quite easily, we are asking a lot out of a first-year starting quarterback in Ty Simpson to go into Doak Campbell and come out with a big victory.
Not only is Simpson still largely unproven, but he will be without starting running back Jam Miller for the first part of this season. Mike Norvell might be on the hot seat, but Kalen DeBoer could quickly find himself there if he does not get Alabama into the College Football Playoff in the next year or so. Another thing Florida State has going for it is Gus Malzahn calling the plays for Thomas Castellanos.
I will still take Alabama to win, but those 13.5 points seem a bit too much for me to willingly swallow.
8. Utah Utes (-6) at UCLA Bruins
Saturday, Aug. 30 (Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA; 11:00 p.m. ET, FOX)
In one of the more underrated games of the Week 1 slate, we have a clash of former Pac-12 South rivals going at it in Utah at UCLA. Not only are the Utes and Bruins trying to get back to being bowl-eligible this year, but they will be starting a pair of intriguing transfer portal quarterbacks. Devon Dampier comes to Utah by way of New Mexico, while Nico Iamaleava joins UCLA from Tennessee.
I may be starting to get dangerously high on the Utes this season, but I think DeShaun Foster seems to know what he is doing leading his alma mater in Westwood. When was the last time the Bruins had a quarterback like Iamaleava coming in? His stock may have taken quite the hit upon leaving Knoxville, but he did quarterback a Playoff team a year ago. With this game being at home, UCLA has a shot at the upset.
I would still take Utah over UCLA, but would not be surprised to see the Bruins win and/or cover here.
7. Syracuse Orange vs. No. 24 Tennessee Volunteers (-13.5)
Saturday, Aug. 30 (Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA; 12:00 p.m. ET, ABC)
This one could be interesting. Prior to the spring transfer portal window, I would have taken the Tennessee Volunteers to beat the Syracuse Orange in a laugher. Maybe this still could happen? However, the Volunteers effectively swapping Iamaleava with Joey Aguilar at quarterback by way of UCLA does not have me overly excited about the team's chances heading into this season.
Conversely, I am thrilled that Syracuse was able to land Steve Angeli in the transfer portal. I thought he was going to win the starting job at Notre Dame. Marcus Freeman saw differently and handed the keys to the car to an unproven freshman in C.J. Carr. Like Josh Heupel, Fran Brown is proving to be a strong Power Four head coach. Tennessee may still win this one, but Syracuse is playing with house money.
Whoever loses this game between the Orange and Volunteers might not make it to a bowl game.
6. TCU Horned Frogs (-3) at North Carolina Tar Heels
Monday, Sept. 1 (Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC; 8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN)
The last game of the weekend could result in a slight Power Four upset in the non-conference. Sonny Dykes' TCU Horned Frogs will be taking their college football-best four-game winning streak into Chapel Hill to take on Bill Belichick's North Carolina Tar Heels. UNC getting three points at home in Belichick's college football debut seems like a bit of a slap in the face to me, but I do get it.
I think this is ultimately going to come down to who plays better between the two starting quarterbacks in Josh Hoover for TCU and South Alabama transfer Gio Lopez for North Carolina. Admittedly, I am not super high on either of these teams, but is it really too big of an ask for Belichick to hold serve and win his first game as UNC's head coach, as opposed to Dykes starting out 1-0?
I may be taking TCU to beat North Carolina, but I cannot say that I feel even remotely good about it.
5. California Golden Bears at Oregon State Beavers (-3)
Saturday, Aug. 30 (Reser Stadium, Corvallis, OR; 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
This is not going to be by much, but I think there is some serious upside to the California Golden Bears heading into former Pac-12 North rival Oregon State's revamped football cathedral on Saturday night. It might be a stay-away for some people, but I am eager to see what first-year starter Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele can do leading Justin Wilcox's team. Will Trent Bray be ready?
Yes, Bray's Beavers have an overqualified quarterback transfer in former Texas backup and Duke starter Maalik Murphy. I would not be surprised if Oregon State won around six games and got to a bowl game with him at quarterback. However, Cal showed me something in the early part of last season that I cannot shake. If JKS can play akin to what Fernando Mendoza did, maybe they win?
I still have the Beavers protecting their home turf, but California is primed for the upset in Week 1.
4. No. 9 LSU Tigers at No. 4 Clemson Tigers (-4)
Saturday, Aug. 30 (Memorial Stadium, Clemson, SC; 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
In one of the biggest Week 1 games, the Battle for Death Valley features two Tiger teams that firmly believe they will be making the College Football Playoff this year. Oh, the Tigers will win, alright, but which one?! While I do like Clemson's chances of protecting its home turf more so than I do LSU's odds of coming in and completely destroying the ACC in one fell swoop, I am not ruling the latter out either.
We have two elite head coaches going at it in Dabo Swinney and Brian Kelly, as well as two serious Heisman Trophy contenders at quarterback Cade Klubnik and Garrett Nussmeier. Although both teams are going to be able to score points, can LSU's defense stop anybody? Blake Baker needs to coach like he did at Missouri in a hurry. Keep in mind his counterpart is an overqualified Tom Allen.
Give me Clemson to win this game and cover, but LSU is not going down without a fight here.
3. No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-2.5) at No. 10 Miami Hurricanes
Sunday, Aug. 31 (Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL; 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
We have another game featuring two College Football Playoff contenders in the ACC hopeful Miami Hurricanes hosting last year's national runner-up in the forever independent Notre Dame Fighting Irish. I may be quite bullish on the Irish heading into this season, but Miami could be getting overlooked a bit here. For as inexperienced as Carr is at quarterback, Carson Beck is seasoned.
Yes, the Mario Cristobal of it all scares me, but we have seen under Marcus Freeman that Notre Dame can lose to anyone at any given time. Freeman may be a better head coach than the guy leading his alma mater in Coral Gables. However, Miami getting 2.5 points at home in a standalone primetime game on Sunday night has my intrigue. I almost feel inclined to take it, but I am not going to just yet.
If Beck outplays Carr, there is a pathway to Miami running away with this one.
2. No. 1 Texas Longhorns at No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes (-2)
Saturday, Aug. 30 (Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH; 12:00 p.m. ET, FOX)
The biggest game of the weekend between No. 1 Texas going to No. 3 Ohio State is a rematch of last year's national semifinal in the Cotton Bowl, and it could result in a slight upset. Texas may be the top-ranked team in the country, but this game is at home for the reigning national champions in The Horseshoe. I think Texas being ranked first in both major polls may rub some the wrong way.
That being said, Texas may have the slightly more talented quarterback in Arch Manning over Julian Sayin. While it is a bit of a push in the head-coaching department between Ryan Day and Steve Sarkisian, Day had to replace both of his star coordinators from last year's staff. Brian Hartline was promoted from within to replace Chip Kelly, while Matt Patricia, of all people, replaces Jim Knowles.
I still like Ohio State's chances to win and cover, but Texas has every reason to believe it can win this.
1. Auburn Tigers (-2.5) at Baylor Bears
Friday, Aug. 30 (McLane Stadium, Waco, TX; 8:00 p.m. ET, FOX)
If there is one game where I feel strongly that an upset is going to happen, take the Baylor Bears getting 2.5 points at home from the visiting Auburn Tigers. This could totally blow up in my face this year, but I think Baylor has a decent shot to get to Arlington out of the Big 12 this season. As for Auburn, the Tigers really need to win eight games to make sure Hugh Freeze will get a fourth season.
Based on what I saw last year, I am far more inclined to believe Sawyer Robertson will propel the Bears to victory in Waco than former Oklahoma quarterback Jackson Arnold coming in and righting the ship at Auburn. Eight or nine wins may be the ceilings for both of these teams, but this line does not make sense to me. Baylor getting points feels like a steal in a very loaded Week 1 slate.
Since this is my No. 1, I do indeed have the stones to pick Baylor to "upset" Auburn at home here.