Only so many teams can make the College Football Playoff in a given season. There may be 12 playoff spots available, but there are 136 teams competing at the FBS level in college football. Even when that number of playoff bids inevitably expands to 16 teams, we are only looking at around 11.8 percent of all the FBS teams playing in a twice-expanded tournament to crown a national champion.
One thing that has not been as important as it probably should be is strength of schedule. Strength of record would eventually take over for this, in theory. However, we do not know if the Selection Committee really cares all that much about it. Wins and conference championships seem to be the driving force heading into the 12th year of the playoff. So who are the serious contenders this year?
Here is every team with a 20.0 percent chance or better of making the playoff, based on ESPN's FPI.
- Texas Longhorns: 83.9 percent
- Georgia Bulldogs: 78.6 percent
- Ohio State Buckeyes: 70.6 percent
- Alabama Crimson Tide: 66.2 percent
- Penn State Nittany Lions: 63.8 percent
- Oregon Ducks: 57.5 percent
- Clemson Tigers: 57.5 percent
- Miami Hurricanes: 47.3 percent
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 45.6 percent
- Tennessee Volunteers: 38.5 percent
- Texas A&M Aggies: 34.3 percent
- Ole Miss Rebels: 30.7 percent
- LSU Tigers: 30.3 percent
- Michigan Wolverines: 25.3 percent
- Boise State Broncos: 25.2 percent
- Tulane Green Wave: 24.3 percent
- Kansas State Wildcats: 22.2 percent
- Auburn Tigers: 21.8 percent
- UNLV Rebels: 21.3 percent
- SMU Mustangs: 21.1 percent
- USC Trojans: 21.0 percent
- South Carolina Gamecocks: 20.3 percent
If I were to kick this down to 10.0-percentage chance of making the playoff or better, we would end up with 32 teams. Again, this is a line of demarcation that helps paint a clearer picture in this exercise. There will be teams we thought who were contenders who most certainly will not be. Conversely, there will be a slew of teams coming out of the woodwork to see if they might have a say in the race.
For now, these 12 teams have the "softest" strength of schedules with a 20-percent chance to get in.
12. Oregon Ducks (25th hardest strength of schedule)
The Oregon Ducks are tied with the Clemson Tigers for having the sixth-best chance of making the playoff at 57.5 percent. More likely than not, the Ducks will be back in the playoff once again. Clearly, everyone outside of Eugene sees them as the third-best team in the Big Ten behind Ohio State and Penn State in some order. I would agree with that. As for their schedule, it is hard, but not that hard...
In the non-conference, the Ducks host Montana State, Oklahoma State and Oregon State. Outside of The Strife Aquatic, those should all be easy wins. In Big Ten play, their three hardest games are at Penn State, at Washington and either at Iowa or home vs. Indiana. I would take the Nittany Lions over them in their Sept. 27 matchup. Right now, I am leaning towards Washington winning on Nov. 29, too.
Not drawing Ohio State this year in league play is a huge plus. I would also argue not drawing teams like Indiana, Illinois and Nebraska work in Oregon's favor quite a bit as well. While this is a team with a 12-0 ceiling, they could have a 9-3 floor if they mess around and lose to either Iowa or Indiana. The road game at Rutgers may be of the trap variety, but I love the team's chances of winning 10 or more.
If a team goes 10-2 or better in the Big Ten, like I think Oregon will, they should be making the playoff.
11. Penn State Nittany Lions (27th hardest strength of schedule)
The Penn State Nittany Lions have the fifth-best chance of making the College Football Playoff at 63.8 percent. They are slotted just ahead of Oregon, with only Ohio State having better odds of making it in the Big Ten. Their schedule is slightly easier than Oregon's, as it is the 27th hardest in college football entering this season. It is another reason why I believe it may be Penn State's year.
In the non-conference, they play nobody in hosting Nevada, FIU and Villanova. They commence Big Ten play at home off a bye vs. Oregon. Penn State has to win that game. Not including that one, their three other challenging games this season are at Iowa, at Ohio State and home vs. Indiana back-to-back-to-back. I do not like their chances of winning in Columbus, but they might have the other two.
While the Nittany Lions do play nearly all the best teams in the Big Ten this year, outside of Illinois, Michigan, USC and Washington, their non-conference is a joke. Throw in a couple of conference game layups at UCLA, home vs. Northwestern and maybe even at Michigan State, it would be disappointing to see this juggernaut team finish any worse than 11-1. They might go 10-2 again.
There are potential pitfalls on Penn State's schedule, but they are not losing a non-conference game.
10. USC Trojans (28th hardest strength of schedule)
The USC Trojans have the 21st-best chance of making the playoff at 21.0 percent. Although I am not a fan of Lincoln Riley as their head coach, I do recognize some potential spots to be taken advantage on the 28th-hardest schedule in the country. Notre Dame in the non-conference could be brutal, but I would be stunned if USC did not win its other two games vs. Missouri State and Georgia Southern.
Leaving the non-conference showdown with Notre Dame aside, USC's three hardest games in Big Ten play are at Oregon, at Illinois, and maybe at Nebraska? They have a few tough home games, including dates with Michigan and Iowa. The Trojans do get a few gimmes along the way with a road date at Purdue, as well as home games vs. Michigan State and Northwestern, as well as home vs. rival UCLA.
Again, I do not think USC is on the same level as the cream of the crop in the Big Ten, but the Trojans do not play three of the league's four playoff teams from a year ago in Indiana, Ohio State and Penn State. They also do not draw Washington this year, which I am kind of surprised because of scheduling and all. There are road bumps to be had, but USC must win its easier conference games.
If all goes well, USC can win around nine games and be on the precipice of making this year's playoff.
9. Michigan Wolverines (29th hardest strength of schedule)
The Michigan Wolverines have the 14th-best chance of making the playoff at 25.3 percent. Their strength of schedule is the 29th hardest in the country. After a down year for the program a season ago, they may have pathway into the playoff if they play with a great level of focus. In the non-conference they host New Mexico and Central Michigan with a road date at Oklahoma in between.
The OU date will have Sherrone Moore going up against his alma mater before serving a two-game suspension vs. CMU and at Nebraska. Not including the road date to Lincoln, their three toughest games in Big Ten play are home vs. Ohio State, home vs. Washington and at USC. They have so many layups in conference play, it is a joke: Wisconsin, Michigan State, Purdue, Northwestern and Maryland.
Assuming you win those five very winnable Big Ten games, as well as the New Mexico and Central Michigan dates, that gets you to a 7-5 floor at the very least. In a very weird way, all of their games are winnable, as the Wolverines have had Ohio State's number for years, and this one will be in The Big House. There is no Indiana, Illinois, Oregon or Penn State on their schedule. Nine wins seems likely.
If Bryce Underwood is a revelation under center, Michigan should be able to win 10 games this year.
8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (38th hardest strength of schedule)
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have the ninth-best chance to make the playoff at 45.6 percent. Given that they do not play in a conference, but with a handful of ACC games every year, they only have the 38th hardest schedule in the country. Probably the best way to break this down is ACC games vs. everyone else. They play six games vs. the ACC competition, but only two vs. Group of Five teams.
Their toughest ACC games is at Miami to start the season. North Carolina State, Boston College, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Stanford are the other five. That quintet is quite winnable. Their two Group of Five games will be against Boise State and traditional rival Navy. Those are quality teams in the Group of Five for sure, but Notre Dame should be able to get wins over both based on their talent.
As for their other four games vs. Power Four schools, they host Texas A&M and Purdue, before going on the road at Arkansas and then hosting rival USC. The A&M game is the most challenging of those four. In a way, Notre Dame is in the same spot as Michigan where all of their games are winnable. I have said if they go 10-2, they should make the playoff, but I am not so sure with this slate of games.
Fortunately for the Fighting Irish, I see another 11-1 season in their future, maybe a 12-0 campaign.
7. Clemson Tigers (40th hardest strength of schedule)
I find the Clemson Tigers' numbers quite fascinating. They are tied with the Oregon Ducks for having the sixth-best shot of making the playoff at 57.5 percent. Even more interesting is their schedule only being the 40th hardest in the country. While they have two very tough games in the non-conference vs. LSU at home to start the year and at South Carolina to end it, the others are only Troy and Furman.
In ACC play, Clemson has to face Georgia Tech in Atlanta, host SMU, host Duke and will be on the road vs. Louisville. The Tigers do not draw Miami this season. Their other four conference games are home vs. Syracuse, at North Carolina, at Boston College, and home vs. Florida State. For as much as I like South Carolina and believe in LSU, expect for Clemson to be favored in all 12 of their games this year.
For me, the math is not math-ing. I see a ton of effort put into Clemson's schedule to make it more challenging, but for whatever reason, it is just not adding up. I think what it really comes down to is the likelihood of Clemson suffering an ACC loss does not feel all that probable. Maybe you lose to an SEC foe, but neither loss would impact the Tigers' chances of making the playoff. It is why they are a lock.
In a way, I feel that getting a win over LSU or South Carolina in the non-conference makes them so.
6. Miami Hurricanes (41st hardest strength of schedule)
The Miami Hurricanes are just off Clemson's trail with the eighth-best odds to make the playoff at 47.3 percent. They have a slightly easier schedule than the Tigers with the 41st hardest in FBS. In the non-conference, the Canes host Notre Dame, Bethune-Cookman, South Florida and Florida before getting into ACC play. The Notre Dame and Florida dates are difficult, so maybe they split the pair?
As far as their conference games go, their two toughest are at SMU and home vs. Louisville. The Hurricanes do not face Clemson, Georgia Tech or Duke during the regular season. Their other six ACC games are at Florida State, home vs. Stanford, Syracuse and North Carolina State before finishing the year on the road at Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh. Miami should go 8-0 in ACC play.
So even if the Hurricanes were to drop a game in conference play, they would really only need a win over either Notre Dame or Florida in non-conference play to counterbalance. We are looking at a team that should go around 10-2 again, maybe with an 8-4 floor, but an 11-1 ceiling. For so many reasons, the Canes are the most formidable challenger to Clemson in the ACC ahead of this season.
The road date at SMU and the home game vs. Louisville will determine if they go to Charlotte or not.
5. SMU Mustangs (43rd hardest strength of schedule)
The SMU Mustangs may have made the College Football Playoff a season ago, but they only have a 21.1-percent chance of making it back. That is the 20th-best mark in FBS. Among the serious ACC contenders, they have the slightly easier schedule of Clemson and Miami with the 43rd hardest in the country. They face two in-state foes out of the Big 12 in the non-conference in Baylor and rival TCU.
Their other non-conference games are home vs. East Texas A&M and a weird one at Missouri State, of all places. When it comes to ACC play, the Mustangs do play on the road at Clemson, as well as hosting both Miami and Louisville. Where they have a huge leg up is in their five other ACC games. Home vs. Syracuse and Stanford, at Wake Forest, at Boston College and at Cal are all quite winnable.
Given that Baylor and TCU are fringe contenders to win the Big 12, those would be quality non-conference wins, should the Ponies beat either of them. If SMU goes 11-1 with their schedule, they should get back to Charlotte. If they went 10-2, they might need some help to make the playoff. I would side on them winning around nine or 10 games this year, but man, do they have some gimmes...
The bottom half of their ACC schedule is among the easiest across that entire Power Four league.
4. Kansas State Wildcats (64th hardest strength of schedule)
I have been trying to figure out why so many people are so high on Kansas State this year. It may have something to do with this... Kansas State has a 22.2-percent chance to make the playoff, according to ESPN's FPI. While that is only the 17th-best mark in the country, have you seen their strength of schedule? The Wildcats play the 64th-hardest in the country. No Power Four contender's is easier.
If you look at their schedule, you may only see home dates vs. North Dakota and Army as non-conference games, but their early-season road date at Arizona is technically a non-conference game, too. This is because of realignment, and the Big 12 decided to keep this game on the schedule anyway. Army will not be easy, but North Dakota and Arizona most certainly will be, or they should be.
K-State's toughest Big 12 game is Farmageddon vs. Iowa State in Dublin in Week 0. Other tough ones include at Baylor, home vs. TCU, at Kansas, home vs. Texas Tech and at Utah. UCF and Oklahoma State are not expected to do much. Kansas State does not draw either Arizona State or BYU in Big 12 play. As is the case with many teams on here, there is a chance Kansas State could win all 12 games.
Right now, I am looking at a team with a 9-3 floor, but has no margin for error with its weak schedule.
3. Boise State Broncos (81st hardest strength of schedule)
The Boise State Broncos are the first of three College Football Playoff contenders I will touch on out of the Group of Five. They have the 15th best odds of making the playoff at 25.2, but only play the 81st hardest schedule in the country. Their toughest game is on the road at Notre Dame on Oct. 4. Their other non-conference games are at USC, home vs. Eastern Washington and Appalachian State.
While I do not claim to know the inner workings of the Mountain West as much as I do the Power Four leagues, every conference game on their schedule is winnable. I would say that UNLV, Fresno State and Colorado State are their most formidable challengers in the Mountain West this year. However, the Broncos get them all at home with a much easier game sprinkled in between each of them.
Although I doubt that they will beat Notre Dame in South Bend, if they were to upset the Irish, that might get the Broncos firmly inside the playoff picture, and not just the No. 12 seed occupied by the Group of Five winner. There is no margin for error outside the Notre Dame game. If this team suffered two losses, they are not making the playoff, even if teams like UNLV and Colorado State are of quality.
Look for this year's Broncos team to go around 11-1 with a Notre Dame loss and vying for the playoff.
2. Tulane Green Wave (86th hardest strength of schedule)
The Tulane Green Wave have the 16th-best chance of making the College Football Playoff at 24.3 percent. While the Greenies have been one of the better teams in the Group of Five over the last four years or so, they need to look dominant in their wins because of their 86th hardest strength of schedule. They do have an impressive non-conference schedule featuring three Power Four teams.
Tulane hosts Northwestern and Duke, but has to travel to Ole Miss. Their other non-conference game is vs. emerging Sun Belt power South Alabama. The Green Wave can afford a loss to Ole Miss, maybe to Duke, but I do not know... They cannot lose to Northwestern and South Alabama in the conference. To be quite frank, they probably need to go undefeated in The American to have a real shot this year.
Their two toughest conference games are home vs. Army and at Memphis. Tulane does not play Navy this year. What really hurts them is the cannon fodder they could be going up against in AAC play. East Carolina and UTSA could be good, but what about Tulsa, Florida Atlantic, Temple and Charlotte? From the looks of it, the bottom of the AAC is starting to hold this Group of Five league back just a bit.
Tulane could make the College Football Playoff if it wins The American with an 11-1 or better record.
1. UNLV Rebels (113rd hardest strength of schedule)
While there are other teams in the Group of Five who could make the playoff if they go 12-0 and then win their conference's championship, that will probably have to be the case for fringe contender UNLV. The Rebels have the 19th-best odds to make the playoff at 21.3 percent, but only play the 113th hardest schedule in the country. Does Dan Mullen's team have a chance to run the gauntlet?
Looking at their non-conference slate, the Rebels need to beat Sam Houston and Idaho State, without debate. Beating UCLA at home could be seen as somewhat of a resume booster. If the Miami RedHawks can hold their own in the MAC, that might be a quality non-conference win for UNLV. As far as Mountain West play is concerned, it all comes down to if they can win two big road games or not.
The two toughest games on the Rebels' conference slate are at Boise State and then probably at Colorado State a few weeks later. Not having to play Fresno State is probably a good thing for them in being able to rack up certain victories. However, nobody is going to care how good UNLV is if they do not beat UCLA and if they do not hold their own vs. Boise State. Like I said, they must go undefeated.
Mullen is a great head coach, but he almost always loses a game his team cannot afford to each year.